Chelsea v Bournemouth

Andoni Iraola’s high-flying Bournemouth side make the trip to Stamford Bridge with the Cherries unbeaten across their last 9 games in all competitions. Chelsea have stumbled into the new year with a patchy run of form leaving them without a win in their last 4 Premier League outings but Enzo Maresca will hope a 5-0 drubbing of League 2 side Morecambe in the FA Cup last time out will be enough to reinvigorate his players. 

The meeting between these sides at the Vitality Stadium earlier in the season was edged out by Chelsea thanks to a late Christopher Nkunku goal and the competitiveness of that contest suggests we could get another tight affair here. Bournemouth have not won at Stamford Bridge since 2019 but Chelsea’s inconsistent home record this campaign will give them a chance of collecting all 3 points in West London.

⭐ Chelsea v Bournemouth Best Bet

Bournemouth have built on their brilliant season last campaign which saw them achieve their highest-ever finish in the Premier League and they’re looking like they can go a few places better this season. Andoni Iraola has found real balance in his side, especially with the players just behind the number 9, notably Antoine Semenyo and Justin Kluivert. 

All the talk of Chelsea being title challengers has eased over the last few weeks as Enzo Maresca’s side have shown weaknesses at the back, coinciding with the injury to Wesley Fofana. The centre-back was crucial to how Chelsea played, giving the Blues the option to push high up the pitch with his recovery pace in behind, there are few profiles like that in the Chelsea squad to partner Levi Colwill. 

Chelsea have failed to beat Crystal Palace, Fulham, Everton and Ipswich in recent weeks and Bournemouth will pose them a serious challenge at Stamford Bridge, especially with their immense pressing power. Bournemouth were very unlucky not to take at least a point from Chelsea earlier in the season, Andoni Iraola’s side had 19 shots, generating an xG of 1.78 - despite only having 33% possession.

Chelsea have lost or drawn 5 of their 9 home games this season and will be a bit tentative heading into this encounter which will demand a lot of them physically setting up what should be a close tie.

🟢 Chelsea v Bournemouth #WhatOddsPaddy Tip

Cole Palmer is averaging 1.5 shots on target per 90 across his 20 Premier League appearances this season, of Chelsea’s regular starters of late he is only narrowly eclipsed by Nicolas Jackson in this department (1.55 per 90).

Palmer is the springboard for most of Chelsea’s positive attacking play and they will look for him to find something special, especially when considering their recent form which sees Enzo Maresca’s side without a win in 4 Premier League games. Chelsea are averaging 6.0 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League this season, a record only bettered by table-topping Liverpool so chance creation shouldn’t be an issue for Chelsea here. 

Antoine Semenyo is expected to start in a striker role with Bournemouth dealing with injuries to Evanilson and Enes Unal. Semenyo operated in this role at the start of the season to great effect and his shot record has remained steady since.

Only Evanilson and Kluivert are finding the target more regularly for Bournemouth than Semenyo this season who is averaging 4.23 shots per 90 and 1.25 shots on target per 90, numbers which could rise with him playing in a central role. 

👕 Chelsea v Bournemouth Predicted XI

🔍 Chelsea v Bournemouth Players to Watch

🔴 Antoine Semenyo

Semenyo has been a constant threat for Bournemouth this season, his pace and power embody everything positive about Andoni Iraola’s side and what is particularly notable is his shot volume which has stayed consistently high throughout the season. Semenyo has had 78 shots across his 19 Premier League appearances this campaign (4.23 per 90).

For context, this is more shots per game than the likes of Salah, Haaland and Palmer further emphasising how much of a threat he can be in the final third. Semenyo had 3 shots against Chelsea in the initial meeting between the sides earlier in the season with Bournemouth having 19 overall. 

🔴 Lewis Cook

Lewis Cook’s role is crucial for the way Andoni Iraola likes to play. Due to the fact that the front 4 are asked to be very aggressive with their pressing patterns, it can leave the midfield open if the opposition beat the press.

This was most evident in Bournemouth’s loss to Liverpool at Anfield earlier in the season, it was one of the few times where Bournemouth were completely undone by a smart approach orchestrated by Arne Slot which Maresca will no doubt look to emulate.

Chelsea have players competent enough on the ball to beat this press on a few occasions which is where Cook will then be faced by Cole Palmer who is averaging 2.11 fouls won per 90. Cook’s role is reflected in his numbers, he’s averaging 1.82 fouls committed per 90 and committed 4 in the initial meeting between the sides as well as picking up a yellow card. 

🔵 Cole Palmer

Whilst Palmer’s role in this Chelsea side has been slightly tweaked by Enzo Maresca, his output has largely stayed the same. He’s registered 19 goal contributions across his 20 Premier League appearances this season (13 goals, 6 assists).

He’s been quiet by his standards in recent weeks but did score against Crystal Palace last time out and found the back of the net in Chelsea’s most recent Premier League home game against Fulham. Palmer is on penalties for Chelsea and involved in most of their positive attacking play having also created 57 chances this campaign (2.93 per 90).

📂 Chelsea v Bournemouth Cheat Sheet

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💻 Chelsea v Bournemouth Form and Tactics

Chelsea line up with a 3-2-4-1 when in possession switching to a back 4 when out of possession with one of the fullbacks inverting to allow one of the midfield pairing to push up into the attacking areas. Opposition sides have started to warm to this tactical switch and target Chelsea down the side where the fullback is inverted, Bournemouth did this effectively in the initial meeting between the sides.

Bournemouth line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape with a focus on pressing high in the final third, Chelsea like to play out from the back so this will be very evident in this game. Bournemouth don’t mind being without the ball, they generated an xG of 1.78 despite only having 33% possession in the initial meeting between the sides. Bournemouth have the confidence to be aggressive in their press which should see man for man pressing against Chelsea’s backline. 

Bournemouth are unbeaten across their last 9 games in all competitions whilst Chelsea are without a victory in their last 4 Premier League outings. There is still a nervous energy around Stamford Bridge underlined by the fact that Chelsea rank 10th for their home record in the Premier League this season.

🏁 Chelsea v Bournemouth Ref Watch

• Referee: Robert Jones
• Robert Jones is averaging 4.67 yellow cards per game across his 12 Premier League appointments this season, also averaging 26.17 fouls per game. Both are in line with the averages for most referees in the Premier League this season. 
• We could see his numbers increase in this encounter, Chelsea and Bournemouth rank in the top 6 in the Premier League for both fouls committed per game and yellow cards collected.
• There were 25 fouls committed and 14 yellow cards shown in the initial meeting between the sides, the latter being a Premier League record. 

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