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Lyon v PSG
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Kick Off: Saturday 25th May at 20:00
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Competition: Coupe de France
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Watch Live: Not Televised
Lyon and PSG square off in the Coupe de France final in Lille on Saturday.
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Normally played in Paris, this encounter has been displaced because of preparations for the Olympic Games, with this the first time in the competition’s 106-year history that the climax will take place outside of the capital.
PSG are aiming to round off a domestic double, having eased their way to the Ligue 1 title, but they face the country’s form team in the shape of Lyon, who charged from bottom in December to the European spots by the end of the campaign.
It promises to be a thrilling affair, which will be Kylian Mbappe’s last for the Parisian side.
💰Lyon v PSG Best Bets
PSG’s dominance of this rivalry suggests that 1.55 is a decent price on them to win in normal time.
Better value, though, is on offer via the foul-prone Ernest Nuamah, who can be backed at 2.80 to commit two or more fouls. He has been hitting three in this category regularly of late.
Equally, look for fireworks from Mbappe, with the outgoing PSG hero a very tempting 2.70 to muster three shots on target or more.
📂 Lyon v PSG Cheat Sheet
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You can find Lyon v PSG match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
⚔️ Lyon v PSG Head-to-Head
Both matches between PSG and Lyon this season have been won 4-1 by Luis Enrique’s side. This has not necessarily been the trend between these clubs. Les Parisiens have won only three of the previous seven through 90 minutes, including the 2020 Coupe de la Ligue final.
Encouraging for PSG, though, was the manner in which they won the April fixture. With a largely second-choice team, they powered their way to an easy win courtesy of two goals in the first six minutes.
Indeed, Luis Enrique’s side have scored all of their eight goals against OL this season in the first half of their fixtures.
Despite this, Lyon have changed dramatically since the clubs met in September. Pierre Sage is likely to use only three or four players who began that match in his starting XI.
OL’s threat in the previous outing, meanwhile, came from the wide areas. Wingers Said Benrahma and Ernest Nuamah both managed three shots, with the latter registering two on target and getting the consolation goal.
Similarly, PSG got joy from these areas. Bradley Barcola, who will likely start this game against his former side, managed four shots, two of which were on target. Goncalo Ramos, who scored twice but will likely be on the bench for this match, had three shots, all of which were on target.
Neither match has seen a particularly high foul count, with 19 free kicks in total given up in that last meeting. Randal Kolo Muani was the chief criminal as he gave away four of these, but the winger is liable to be a replacement here. Lyon’s Maxence Caqueret gave away three fouls while Bradley Barcola on two was the only other player to commit multiple indiscretions.
Meanwhile, Lyon post a higher corner count in both previous matches this season, 10-4 in Paris after edging the earlier fixture 5-2 in that capacity.
📊 Lyon Form and Stats
Lyon are undoubtedly France’s form team currently. OL have won nine of their last 11 matches, suffering only one defeat in that period. Unfortunately for the Rhone giants, that reverse was against PSG.
One of their secrets to success has been the high number of goalscoring chances they are creating. In five of their last seven outings, they have posted more than 2 xG while only the Parisians have managed to generate more than that figure against them.
Alexandre Lacazette is their man in form. During Lyon’s resurgence, he has scored 16 goals in 17 Ligue 1 starts. Last weekend, he showed no nerves as he converted a late penalty to secure victory over Strasbourg which secured European football.
Although he only has three assists for the season, these have come in his last five Ligue 1 starts. Lacazette is 3.0 to score anytime.
He rarely posts big numbers of shots, but he is efficient with those he takes.
Indeed, Said Benrahma (2.91) posts a higher shots-per-90 figure than Lacazette’s 2.35. Nuamah (2.11) is not too far off either. The former Arsenal man’s 1.29 shots on target per 90 is likely to be the leading figure of the starting XI, though.
Nuamah is one to watch when it comes to fouls. Although he only gave up one free kick against PSG when the sides last met, he has posted three or more fouls in three of his last four starts. He is 2.8 just to commit two fouls.
📊 PSG Form and Stats
PSG’s form has been perilously difficult to predict in recent weeks as Luis Enrique has chopped and changed his team on a whim in order to prepare for next season. The Spaniard has tried different combinations and has rested players, sometimes several at once, in this latter part of the campaign, with PSG consequently winning only two of their last six.
Despite this, they have managed to post 1.5 xG or higher in eight of their last nine matches. PSG have not always been efficient, though. They have only outperformed their xG figure in one of their last five games, scoring five goals despite a total of 9.8 xG.
Luis Enrique will have a strong squad available, and that means having top scorer Mbappe back in the team one final time. He is leading PSG with 2.08 shots on target per 90 and also posts 4.67 shots per 90 this season.
Mbappe has had at least three shots on target in three of his last five starts and, given that he is likely to play all of this match, could be expected to do the same. This is priced at 2.75.
Vitinha is one to watch when it comes to shots on target. The Portuguese only posts 0.81 per 90 over the season as a whole but has managed at least one in nine of his last 14 games.
Few of PSG’s leading foul committers are likely to start, with Barcola posting 1.45 per 90 for the season liable to be their most prolific offender. Lucas Berlado, meanwhile, has four PSG yellow cards in 13 appearances and is the likeliest to see any cards.
On the corners market, it’s been feast or famine. Three times in their last six, PSG have enjoyed over 10 corners, yet on the other three occasions they have had under four.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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