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Coventry v Millwall
The Championship concludes this weekend with Coventry v Millwall on Sunday afternoon. Our football coverage this weekend includes EFL betting predictions and EFL accumulator tips. We also have plenty of non-EFL content, with a huge range of football tips and expert betting predictions to help you craft yourself a winner this weekend.
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Coventry have punched their way into the play-off picture in recent weeks. The Sky Blues are aiming for consecutive seasons reaching the play-offs after losing in the final to Luton in 2022/23. The loss of Viktor Gyokeres, now one of Europe’s most sought-after strikers, and Gustavo Hamer, looked as though it was going to lead to a very tough season for Coventry as they started fairly slowly, but the return of Callum O’Hare seemed to unlock the team’s potential and they have been on a roll ever since.
Millwall finally said goodbye to long-serving manager Gary Rowett a couple of months into the season and the appointment of young England youth coach Joe Edwards seemed to imply that the Millwall hierarchy wanted to evolve the playing style somewhat.
One senses that this will be a match for Millwall to bring that combative, highly competitive style if they are going to disrupt this Coventry side.
Coventry v Millwall Cheat Sheet
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🏆 Match stats: Coventry the stronger attacking unit of the pair
As well as being in play-off contention in terms of points won, the underlying data supports Coventry’s claims to be up and around the top six.
They have the 7th-best goal record with 46, 37 of those from open play, and the 6th-best defensive record for goals conceded.
Their seasonal xG total of 43.5 is also 7th-best in the league, but their xG against would only rank them 11th in the league.
The most supportive claim behind Coventry superiority in this game is probably their home form. They haven’t lost at home since 30th October against West Brom and though they have drawn too many overall, their xG dominance means that they could’ve won more of those draws if their finishing had been better.
Millwall are traditionally more of a home team than an away team, however, this season they have actually won more points away from The Den.
However, they have lost five of their last seven on the road, winning only once, and they have lost the xG battle in five of those seven as well. Creating chances away from home has been an issue with too many matches seeing less than 1xG in the Millwall column.
⚽ Coventry to win @ 1.70
⚽ Coventry (-1 handicap) @ 3.10
🎯 Shooting stats: O’Hare overpriced for Coventry
It is something of a surprise to find Callum O’Hare so low down in the list of odds for shots on target in this encounter.
He still has a small-ish sample size since his return from a serious injury, but that sample is pretty emphatic.
He is behind only Haji Wright in the Coventry squad for shots on target per 90 at 1.15, this is a very high ratio compared to his shots total of 2.22 per 90, which is perhaps where the odds are produced from.
Observing O’Hare’s play though, his shots are often from very advantageous positions from the centre of the box, obviously giving him a much better chance of hitting the target. He is worth a bet here.
Duncan Watmore, if he starts, is the closest to value on the Millwall side of the equation.
Watmore is a very useful forward at this level, being able to play in a number of roles. Whilst he probably doesn’t score as often as he could, he is very busy around the box and can usually be relied on to fire off a couple of shots at least.
⚽ Callum O’Hare to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.80
⚽ Callum O’Hare to have 2+ shots on target @ 4.50
⚽ Duncan Watmore to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.25
🚩 Corners stats: Coventry worth backing despite favouritism
It is the general trend in football, but especially so in the Championship, that home teams tend to dominate the corner count.
It is definitely the case here that Coventry at home earn more corners per match than visitors to the CBS.
There is a higher than average total corner count at 11.8, with 67% of matches at Coventry going over the 10.5 line. Coventry average 6.33 corners per home match and concede 5.47, which isn’t a huge margin.
However, confidence in expecting more Coventry corners comes from Millwall’s away data. The Lions have the 2nd-lowest away corners earned total in the league, only above Rotherham, at 3.27.
⚽ Over 5.5 Coventry corners @ 1.57
⚽ Coventry corner match bet @ 1.40
🛑 Fouls stats: Forward players underrated in the fouls market
When observing the fouls data it is a standout feature amongst both teams how much their forwards are fouling the opposition.
Haji Wright and Zian Flemming are the clubs’ leaders for fouls in the Championship, which is potentially an indication of two things: a) they are key helpers with the forward press for both sides, and b) aerial duels are often the causes of fouls for these players.
Wright has committed 41 fouls so far but has received only 1 yellow card, this sometimes means that he is due a card, but more likely that his fouls aren’t dangerous or significant enough to receive a card, which makes him much better value in this market than the cards market.
Another angle that stands out is that Tatsuhiro Sakamoto is someone who is being fouled an awful lot. He has 40 fouls against him in 18.8 sets of 90 minutes.
Joe Bryan, the likely direct opponent of Sakamoto, averages over a foul a game, so looks a good addition for at least one foul here, and might be worth chancing for two.
⚽ Haji Wright to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.20
⚽ Haji Wright to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.00
⚽ Zian Flemming to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.87
⚽ Joe Bryan to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.87
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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