Jake Ferguson has been one of my favourite targets all season long and we get another good opportunity to back him in primetime. The Cowboys came into the season with a bit of a faulty plan, trusting CeeDee Lamb to carry the load on offence. While that itself isn’t a bad idea, they didn’t surround him with any additional talent, so opposing defences can easily key on him with bracket coverage and force other players to beat them. With Brandin Cooks going down with an injury they are now down to just Tolbert and Brooks in the wide receiver room, two very lacklustre options.

This should open up even more opportunities for the tight end, who is coming in with some great recent form. Ferguson has been targeted 18 times over the team’s last two games which is the highest amount of targets that Ferguson has ever had over any two-game stretch. The Steelers’ high-level pass rush is going to force quick throws, which helps Fergusons’ low ADOT profile even more. I’m expecting plenty of volume in a competitive game with Dallas’s lack of pass-catching options.

Let’s double up on the tight ends in this one. Pat Freiermuth has been one of the most consistent tight ends in football this season, posting four or more receptions in every game this year. We just spent all that time talking about the lack of competition for targets on Dallas, and the same is true for the Steelers with Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin as below-average second and third options. Justin Fields is not the best quarterback in the world but he seems to be developing some chemistry with his safety blanket, and I think he sees 5+ targets once again.

Additionally, Freiermuth ranks second on the season in Separation Win Rate against man coverage, via FantasyPoints. This is a good matchup against a Dallas team that is weak over the middle and plays a ton of man coverage. The Steelers will likely be put in a position where they have to pass once again and Freiermuth should be one of the main beneficiaries.

George Pickens has been one of the best deep-ball receivers in the NFL, with the most 20+ yard catches in the league. He gets a Cowboys defense that has really struggled to contain explosive plays. Trevon Diggs is really the only competent corner they have at the moment, but he’s really struggled this season and is even on the injury report now. We just saw Malik Nabers torch him in primetime for 115 yards on 12 receptions, and it’s not a matchup I’m intimidated by at all.

Pickens is over this number in 3 of 4 games this season with 113, 57, and 85 yards this season. His only miss came against the Broncos, with arguably the best shadow corner in the NFL Patrick Surtain locking him down. His only miss was in the worst matchup possible, as this is a significantly better spot. I’m confident we see Pickens continue to soar over his prop numbers this season.

This is the perfect time to buy on Rico Dowdle before he fully takes over the RB1 role. While it started out as more of a split-share, we saw reports that Dowdle was likely to see more work in primetime last week and that was exactly the case. In the first two weeks, Dowdle posted a 33% rush share, but that’s increased to 61% over his last two games. We even saw perfect opportunities for the Cowboys to go to Elliot late in the game because of his lack of career fumbles, but they trusted Dowdle enough to send him out there instead.

Additionally, he has been fairly efficient despite facing some tough matchups with the Ravens and Saints. Dowdle has posted at least 4.3 YPC in each of his last 3 games and if he can continue that baseline of efficiency then I like his chances to increase his touches once again. To mitigate a tough Steelers pass rush lead by TJ Watt you need to keep the ball on the ground, and I expect McCarthy to do just that.