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Dortmund v Bayern Munich 3/1 Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Dortmund v Bayern Munich 3/1 Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Friday 27 February, 20264 min read
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The Perceptive Football Punter

Football analyst, betting writer, and educator. Wealth of experience studying football markets and identifying value opportunities through a data-heavy approach. As a true specialist in player markets, I use that knowledge and theory to educate others on how to spot shrewd angles in the market.

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In this article...

  • Bayern Munich have scored a goal in every single match they’ve played this season, this accounts for every competition. 

  • Dortmund’s only Bundesliga defeat came against Saturday’s opposition, a 2-1 defeat at the Allianz Arena.

  • Bayern Munich have scored a whopping 85 goals in the Bundesliga this season, they’ve dropped points on just four occasions, giving them a win rate of 82%.

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Dortmund v Bayern Munich Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Dortmund v Bayern Munich
  • Bundeliga
  • 16:30
4 Selections @ 3.75

Bayern Munich to Win @ 1.60

It was a mentally challenging night for Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday evening, they sabotaged a 2-0 aggregate lead and ended up being eliminated from the Champions League. It’s a difficult pill to swallow, and I just wonder if the players would have lost a bit of belief and motivation after seeing their season unravel before their eyes. 

It’s a must win game for Dortmund in any case, this may prove to be an advantage for Bayern, as they can pick their moments more carefully on the counter-attack and provide damage in the latter parts of the game. The visitors should be fresh and raring to go after a seven-day break, while Dortmund will be contending with some physical and mental fatigue from their Champions League game in Italy.

The fact of the matter is, Bayern have dropped points in just four Bundesliga matches this season, giving them a win rate of 82.60%. There’s no disputing Dortmund have become a tougher nut to crack this season domestically, but Bayern are arguably the best team in Europe at present; they also won the reverse fixture at the Allianz.

Both Teams to Score @ 1.40

The nature of Bayern’s football will always leave them vulnerable defensively on rare occasions, but those rare occasions often result in high-quality chances for the opposition. 

This is exemplified by the fact that Bayern have given up 15 big chances across their last four Bundesliga matches. It’s certainly not a complete shutout; there’s vulnerability at times. The visitors have also conceded a goal in four of their last five away matches.

Dortmund are comfortably finding the net at home, netting 26 times in 11 matches, and going at 2.36 goals per game. Such is Bayen’s level of firepower in the final third, they have scored in every single match they’ve played this campaign, and that accounts for all competitions.

Michael Olise to have 1+ Shot on Target @ 1.28

The Bayern Munich wide man has been in superb form this season, he’s registered 11 goals and 22 assists across his Bundesliga and Champions League games, a fantastic feat. Olise has been averaging 3.81 shots across his Bundesliga games this season, and with those kinds of averages there’s always a viable chance he’ll end up hitting the target. Indeed, more than 50% of those shots have hit the target, a credible conversion rate, he’s hitting the target an average of 1.96 times per 90.

Olise’s exceptional 1v1 dribbling makes it easy for him to create half a yard and unleash a shot, Vincent Kompany gives him plenty of positional freedom; he’ll drift into central areas, increasing his opportunities to receive the ball in shooting positions, as opposed to just hugging the touchline. Olise hasn’t scored in his last seven appearances, a bit of a blip in the context of his season; he should be extra eager to set that record straight against Dortmund on Saturday.

Luis Diaz to Commit 1+ Fouls @ 1.28

Luis Diaz plays the game in a tenacious manner and looks to be aggressive when attempting to dispossess opponents. Now admittedly, Diaz is only averaging 1.13 fouls per 90, but those numbers have been well up in recent months. 

Diaz has now committed a foul in eight consecutive matches. This is a pretty significant statistical figure, and shows there’s been a consistency to the fouling actions he’s taking on the pitch. The Bayern winger has committed 11 fouls in those eight games, giving him an average of 1.38 per game. Any fixture between Dortmund and Bayern is a big occasion, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see some extra needle and tension between the teams. 

Vicent Kompany has gained so much trust in Diaz that he’s playing 90 minutes most weeks at present, which further increases his likelihood of committing a foul. The quick and agile Karim Adeyemi might be introduced in the latter parts of the match for Dortmund, and given his positioning on the pitch, this would further open up Diaz's foul angles.

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📈 Dortmund v Bayern Munich Form & Tactics

It was a humbling evening for Dortmund in the Champions League on Tuesday evening; they were eliminated from the competition at the hands of Atalanta, this was despite leading 2-0 from the first leg. It was an unexpected capitulation from a team which has looked far more solid and compact this season, emphasised by the fact they’ve lost just one match in the Bundesliga all season. 

Dortmund’s league form is excellent though, they’ve dropped just two points in their last seven games, which was their 2-2 draw against RB Leipzig last week. The hosts are also undefeated in their last 16 Bundesliga games, there’s a definite feeling that Bayern Munich will test their resolve on Saturday evening. Dortmund are comfortably sitting 2nd in the league, they are six points ahead of 3rd-place Hoffenheim. 

Bayern Munich are once again front-runners in the Bundesliga, they now command a hefty gap of eight points to 2nd-placed Dortmund. Bayern have won their last three Bundesliga matches, but they did uncharacteristically drop points in two consecutive matches before their three-match winning streak. 

The visitors' numbers have been absolutely frightening this season; they’ve scored 85 goals in just 23 matches, an average of 3.70 goals per game. Rather remarkably, they are averaging four goals per game at the Allianz Arena. Out of their 23 Bundesliga matches this season, Bayern have only dropped points on four different occasions; they’ve been relentless in truth.

📔 Dortmund v Bayern Munich Formation & Team News

Niko Kovac has turned Dortmund into a more stable, disciplined, and defensively sound team, shifting away from possession-heavy tactics towards a more pragmatic and direct approach. Kovac has implemented a 3-4-2-1 formation, with a heavy emphasis on the wing backs getting forward and creating overloads in wide areas. 

Dortmund focus on vertical passing and rapid counter-attacks to exploit space behind opponents. Serhou Guirassy often acts as the focal point in attack, while attacking midfielders like Julian Brandt and Adeyemi operate in the half spaces to be a source of creative influence. 

Dortmund will be without Filippo Mane, who is injured, while Niklas Sule is touch and go whether he’ll be fit. Julian Ryerson misses out because of yellow card accumulation. 

Vincent Kompany’s style has a heavy emphasis on possession-based football with some fluid and interchangeable formations. They typically employ a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 off the ball, then switch to a 3-2-5 during build-up. 

The tactics are characterised by high pressing and aggressive, positional-oriented attacks inspired by his former manager Pep Guardiola. Bayern look to create overloads with quick, short passes, demanding technical defenders and mobile forwards. 

Ahead of their match against Dortmund on Saturday, Alfonso Davies, Cassiano Kiala, and Manuel Neuer are all sidelined with injuries.

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