England and Germany, the historic rivalry where only one side actually cares about it. The two sides have met many times in recent years, but today’s hosts England won the game that mattered most, the knockout tie at Wembley last summer.
Since that summer evening at Wembley, the Three Lions eventually fell at the final hurdle to Italy on penalties, and then have really struggled ever since, getting relegated from the top tier of the Nations League after failing to win any of their 5 games. The lowest point was a 4-0 humiliation by Hungary at Wembley, and now after silencing his doubters at the Euros, manager Gareth Southgate once again finds the pressure mounting heading into a major tournament. Should England fail to win they will be entering the competition winless in 6 games, having not tasted victory since a 3-0 win against Ivory Coast in March.
Germany have not been much better however, with a freak 5-2 win against Italy where the European Champions did not show up until much too late in the game keeping them out of the relegation picture. Hansi Flick has not been able to replicate his Bayern success with the national side so far, despite his starting XI being made up of almost entirely Bayern players.
This match is a tough one to call, with both sides being out-of-form and now having nothing to play for but pride. Both managers will be keen to get a look at some players who may not have featured that much ahead of the World Cup, so heavy rotation looks likely, making it even more difficult to predict how this one will unfold.
Despite this, we’ve taken a look at the stats and the previous performances and crunched the numbers to find some excellent selections for your Bet Builders. I would recommend having a read and picking out those which you are most confident in, although if you like the sound of them all, the four selections are available as a Bet Builder at the bottom of the article.
England v Germany Hot Shot Tips
Jude Bellingham to have 2+ Shots or Jamal Musiala to have 2+ Shots
Jude Bellingham already has Europe’s top clubs circling and he is making Birmingham’s decision to retire his number when he left the club look less and less ridiculous with each passing weekend. The news that Kalvin Phillips will be undergoing shoulder surgery and may be a doubt for the World Cup, suggests Southgate will retain Bellingham again for this fixture. The in-demand Dortmund midfielder was one of England’s better performers in their disappointing showing against Italy, his 3 shots being second only to Harry Kane’s 5 in total.
Playing alongside Declan Rice allows Bellingham to get forward and support the attack with an eye for a pass, but the youngster is not afraid to shoot, averaging 1.4 shots per 90 in the Nations League. He should be even less restricted in this game, and with the result making little to no difference, and heavy rotation likely he looks a great option for any Bet Builder.
He has failed to get a shot away in just one of 11 games for club and country this season, and has notched 2 or more in 7 of those 11. He clearly has an eye for goal and will not hesitate to pull the trigger if he can ghost into a pocket of space and get a sight of the net. As long as he is handed a second England start in a row, I would imagine this will sail in over the course of the game.
If England are struggling to get going, as they did last time out against Italy Bellingham may again begin to pull the trigger more frequently, especially facing off against players he knows well from domestic football, and if you back him to replicate his 3 shot haul from Friday night you can jump to odds of 2.7 for one extra shot.
Meanwhile. the other teenage sensation Jamal Musiala could easily have been lining up for England with Bellingham, but his choice to play for Germany instead is looking to be a smart decision, with former Bayern manager Hansi Flick now in charge of the national side after giving the youngster his big break at Bayern Munich. The young attacking midfielder has been excellent for the German champions in 2022-23, and he has been rewarded with plenty of game time for his country.
After missing out against Hungary last time I am confident Musiala will slot into a change team for this tie, not least after his fantastic showing in the reverse fixture in Munich. Musiala is averaging 2.2 shots per 90 in the Nations League this season, level with Leroy Sane and just behind Timo Werner on 2.4 per 90. He clearly does not shy away from the big stage and had 3 shots in just 65 minutes in the 1-1 draw against England back in June.
His 20 shots in his 6 Bundesliga games this season further demonstrate his confidence, and if Germany are heavily rotated he may be expected to carry the attacking threat even more than he already does. His 67% shot accuracy in domestic league games is indicative of an accomplished finisher, and his high shot volume shows he is unafraid of taking shots from distance, something his teammates cannot begrudge when he is so accurate with them.
There is a great chance of even more shots for the youngster, and odds of 2.75 for Musiala to have 3+ look very tempting for any potential Bet Builders you may be putting together, but for those going for the Bet Builder attached to the article I am more minded to play it a little safer and go for 2+ shots instead.
Eric Dier to have 1+ Shots
A feature of the Southgate era has been England’s set piece dominance. Whilst open play goals have been somewhat harder to come by, thumping headers from corners and free kicks have powered Gareth’s side to a World Cup Semi-Final and a European Championship Final already, and while they have dried up recently, they remain a threat no matter the opposition.
Having been frozen out of the England squad for some time, Dier wasted no time in looking for his fourth England goal, which would be his first in over five years since a goal against Slovakia at Wembley way back in September 2017. He has been outstanding at centre-back for Tottenham both this season and last, and no-one can begrudge him working his way back into the national side.
Of course the sample size for the national side is small, but Dier has managed 9 shots in 10 games for club and country, including 5 in his last 2 games. England should dominate set-pieces again against this Germany side which is fairly small in comparison. I would expect Dier to retain his starting spot here, with Southgate needing to assess his options now that Maguire has lost his place at Manchester United.
England average 5.2 corners per game in the Nations League, though they did have 8 in the reverse fixture against the Germans. If Dier can connect with just one of these deliveries, something that becomes even more likely if Kieran Trippier or Trent Alexander-Arnold are on the field, then this bet will land. Dier won 3/3 aerial duels in the last game, so expect similar results if a cross comes his way in this one.
I would probably advise against pushing the odds any higher than this, although if you back Dier to get his header on target, the odds of 4.33 represent pretty good value for a dominant aerial centre-back who had 3 attempts in his last outing.
Thomas Muller 1+ to have Shots on Target
It feels like Thomas Muller has been around forever at this point, with the 2010 World Cup’s Golden Boot winner having been nearly ever-present in the Germany and Bayern Munich sides for well over a decade now. He remains ruthlessly efficient, with a shooting accuracy of 75% in the Nations League and 62% in the Bundesliga this season, fantastic numbers for a creative player who takes on plenty of shots per game.
Though he fluffed his lines when it really mattered in the Round of 16 clash at Wembley Stadium during last summer’s European Championships, slicing wide when clean through against Jordan Pickford, expect Muller to put at least one on target here, as he averages 0.9 shots on target per 90 minutes while playing for the national side in this Nations League campaign.
He managed a shot on target in the reverse fixture in Munich, and has only left the field after starting a game without having 1 or more shots on target once in the Bundesliga this season. Should Muller retain his place after the disappointing 1-0 loss to Hungary confirmed Germany would not be in contention for the Nations League crown he looks very likely to continue to pile up the shots, and when he does so, he usually forces a save with at least one of them.
Only Timo Werner has had more shots while playing a comparable amount of minutes, but even then as a striker has only managed 9 more than Muller has throughout their Nations League campaign. The only Group A fixture in which Muller started the game and did not get a shot on target was the dull 1-1 draw with an Italy side determined to sit back and neutralise the counter-attacking threat posed by Germany’s wide-men. Though England often try and play in a similar way, they are likely to heavily rotate and this should benefit Muller even more.
If you expect Germany to be very dominant here then you may wish to push the boat out and go for 2+ shots on target instead, with Muller sitting as high as 4.0 at PaddyPower, but without knowing exactly how strong each manager will ultimately decide to go for this dead rubber, I am personally sticking with 1+ instead.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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England v Germany Predicted Line-ups
England predicted XI (3-4-2-1): Ramsdale; Stones, Dier, Maguire; Trippier, Rice, Bellingham, Chilwell; Mount, Sterling; Kane
Germany predicted XI (4-2-3-1): ter Stegen; Hofmann, Sule, Scholtterbeck, Raum; Kimmich, Gundogan; Musiala, Muller, Sane; Havertz
How to watch England v Germany in the UEFA Nations League
📅 When is England v Germany? / Monday, 26th September 2022, 19:45
🏟 Where is England v Germany? / Wembley Stadium (London)
📺 What TV channel is England v Germany on? / Premier Sports
🟨 …And who is the referee for England v Germany? / Danny Makkelie 🇳🇱