It goes without saying that the England captain is the most likely route to goal for the Three Lions.

He has become remarkably consistent in his output for England, especially at major tournaments, and especially in knockout rounds.

Kane has hit the target at least once in his last five tournament matches, and in five of his last six knockout matches at major tournaments. This includes four on target against France in England’s last knockout match, we will not mention the one shot that didn’t hit the target, two against Senegal, three against Denmark in the last Euros, three against Ukraine, and one against Germany.

Kane has hit the target exactly once in each of the matches so far, despite both England and Kane looking slightly under par. An improvement in sharpness should see this leg land with comfort.

Skriniar is not the most regular fouler in a Slovakia shirt. He averages only 0.46 fouls per 90 over Slovakia’s last 30 competitive internationals, but this price is very attractive because of the opponents that he will be facing in this match.

Harry Kane, and Jude Bellingham when he joins the attack, have a very strong record of being fouled. Bellingham has been fouled in every match this tournament, and was fouled thirteen times in three matches before the tournament began as well.

Kane has become a master of using his body to be fouled in England matches at major tournaments. The two fouls that he earned against Slovenia took his tally to seven already in this tournament to add to the nine in the 2022 World Cup and the 14 in Euro 2020.

Despite his average, Skriniar did commit one foul in each of the second and third group game, and two in the last qualifier as well, so this line would’ve won in three of his last four matches.

Declan Rice hasn’t always been a regular fouler for England, despite his position at the base of midfield being one that tends to be responsible for breaking up attacks.

However, he is on a long run of matches where he has committed at least one foul. The two fouls that he committed against Slovenia made it six matches in a row in which Rice had picked up at least one foul.

That makes his price here look appealing to add into a bet builder for at least one foul. The Slovakian midfielders and wide players seem to more than capable of drawing fouls, Ondrej Duda and Juraj Kucka average over 2 fouls against per 90 for Slovakia, and are wily campaigners, as is Stanislav Lobotka, who Rice could be asked to push onto if England want to disrupt Slovakia’s possession.

Preventing counter attacks may also be a key job for Rice, and Lukas Haraslin is averaging 2.58 fouls against in competitive matches for Slovakia as well.

The Slovakian central defender has had a shot in each of his last five competitive matches for Slovakia.

England don’t tend to concede many corners, they didn’t concede a single one against Slovenia, but there were a couple of dangerous free-kicks that Slovenia didn’t capitalise on. The other thing about England is that they don’t tend to concede a great deal in open play either, so the Slovakians will have undoubtedly worked on set pieces as a legitimate route to goal.

Vavro is the key target for Slovakia in these circumstances, as can be seen by his consistency of getting at least one shot off. Interestingly, this is also a big theme of his form for his club, Copenhagen. Vavro hit 30 shots from 23.2 90’s last season, and 39 in 27.1 90’s the season before, so he is averaging 1.37 shots per 90 domestically over the last couple of seasons.

Kane’s ability to get fouls in major tournaments has been touched upon already, but bears reiterating here.

The Bayern striker has been a master for England at relieving pressure, especially in matches in which England are holding onto to something, which could well be the scenario here.

Kane was fouled twice against Slovenia, and five times against Serbia, a game in which England had a lead to hold on to. Kane is averaging 2.07 fouls per 90 in major tournament matches going back to Euro 2020, with nine of the fifteen matches in that sample seeing him be fouled more than once, and only one match where he wasn’t fouled at all.

This is as much a gamble on game state as much as Kane’s record as well, if England have something to hold onto then Kane being fouled seems like a strong bet, but even without that, there is a good chance of this landing.

This is an even money shot which feels fairly generous.

Hancko has drawn a foul in each of the matches at the Euros so far. He is also averaging a foul against him over a much longer period of time in a Slovakia shirt, he is at 1.03 fouls against per 90 over Slovakia’s last 17 competitive internationals.

There is also the opposition to consider. England do try to work positions by which Saka gets into one v one duels with his direct opponent. This saw Erik Janza pick up a yellow card in the last match, but it also works the other way as Saka committed two fouls in that match as well. Saka also committed two fouls in the opening match against Serbia and averages 1.61 fouls per 90 in competitive England fixtures.