In this article…
Spain v England
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Kick Off: Sunday 14th July at 20:00
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Watch Live: BBC One/ITV1
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Competition: Euro 2024
History will be made regardless of the outcome of the Euro 2024 final. Either Spain will win their fourth European Championship crown, an outright record, or England will win their first ever Euros, and their first major international trophy since 1966.
Spain have been the darlings of the tournament, and rightly so. Their brand of youthful athleticism out wide, central experience, and fluid passing play has been the most impressive combination of any team in the competition.
England have shown steady improvement throughout the tournament, and have answered a lot of the questions that have come their way through mentality and moments of brilliance from their talented individuals. There is no way that anyone would’ve thought that an England team would go behind in three consecutive knockout matches and find a way to progress to the final regardless. There must be a feeling within the England camp that this is their time.
Spain are bookies’ favourites ahead of the match, though there isn’t too much in it.
We’ll have plenty Euro 2024 betting tips here at Andy’s Bet Club ahead of the final, like our Euro 2024 final bet builder tips alongside our shot on target predictions and foul betting tips. Our experts have also crafted a Euro 2024 final: England v Spain longshot bet at 22/1.
Make sure also to check out our best bet builder bookmakers and Euro 2024 free bet offers to ensure you get the best value from our football tips.
Spain v England Best Bets
➡️ Fabian Ruiz to have 2+ shots @ 1.73 with Betfair
➡️ Alvaro Morata & Jude Bellingham to have 3+ foul involvements each @ 2.50 with Betfair
Finals are always fairly tricky to call from a result perspective. By definition, the two teams that make it to a final have good form and something about them.
Indeed, over half of the finals since Euro 96 have ended in draws, with an average of only 1.71 goals in the finals. However, just over half of the finals have seen over 1.5 goals, and only the Euro 2016 final between France and Portugal ended 0-0 through the regulation 90 minutes.
Spain are deserved favourites on the balance of what has been seen throughout the tournament. However, England were more strongly fancied in the betting markets pre-tournament, which does indicate that the variables that the market liked about England cannot be totally discounted, whether that be player quality or recent finals experience.
Either way, it is difficult to disagree with the prices for the overall result. A good correct score bet at a bigger price would be either Spain winning 1-0 at 6.5 or a 1-1 draw after 90 minutes at 5.5.
In terms of best bets, Fabian Ruiz to have two or more shots is recommended at 1.73. This has happened in his last four matches at Euro 2024, and he is almost certain to play the full 90 minutes as he has had a superb tournament and offers Spain a great goal threat from central midfield.
The other bet that should be mentioned is the stats special for Morata and Bellingham to have 3 or more foul involvements each at 2.5 on Betfair.
Morata has been charging around the pitch like a bull in the last two matches either fouling himself or earning fouls through his endeavour. He has been involved in twelve fouls in the two matches combined. Bellingham has thrown himself into a few ill-advised challenges of his own, and he has won at least two fouls in each of his last three matches as well.
📂 Spain v England Cheat Sheet
There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it. You can also view the Euro 2024 super sub betting information.
You can find Spain v England match stats on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
📊 Spain Form and Stats
Spain’s form has been pretty impeccable.
They have eliminated two very strong teams from the tournament in Germany and France, and have done so without requiring penalties, which is probably a good thing given their history with penalties in tournament football.
They have won five of their six matches at the tournament in regulation time, with the quarter-final against Germany requiring a 118th-minute winner from Mikel Merino. They have scored the most goals at the tournament with 13 goals in their six matches, just over two goals a game, and they have conceded only three, though they have conceded in each of the knockout matches so far, going behind twice.
11.1 xG has been created by Spain in the tournament, by far the highest of anybody in the tournament. They average 6.3 shots on target per match, but they do have some slightly concerning defensive data from the Spanish perspective. They have conceded 6.5 xG, over 1 xG per match, and it could be worth noting that they have a high fouls per match ratio at 13.8, which stands at the 4th highest out of the 24 teams at Euro 2024.
📊 England Form and Stats
England have improved their performance levels on the eye over the course of the tournament. Their first-half display against the Netherlands in the semi-final, despite initially going behind, was their best of the Euros.
However, it would be fair to say that the opposition that the Three Lions have encountered on their route to the final have not been of the calibre of Spain. The Netherlands were the best and highest-ranked team on their journey, and they had finished third in their group in this tournament.
England fell behind in all of their knockout matches but did show excellent character and mental toughness to respond positively and qualify on each occasion. There is also something to be said for having won in extra time, on penalties, and in normal time with a last-minute winner, it could give the group great confidence that they can win in different ways and that they will show up when it counts.
From a statistical perspective, there are concerns. England’s xG for in the tournament is only 5.6, still only 10th overall in the tournament despite being finalists. Indeed, their defensive xG against is 5.3, so they only have a +0.3 xG differential across their six matches so far at Euro 2024. Both Teams To Score has landed in four of the six Euro 2024 matches, and England have only three wins in their last ten international matches in regulation time.
⚔️ Spain v England Head-to-Head
There have been 27 meetings between the countries in men’s professional football, going back to 1929. England actually have the edge with 14 wins to Spain’s 10, with only 3 draws in their history, which is a very low percentage of draws.
However, England’s edge comes from a lot of victories in the middle of the 20th century. There was a period of seven consecutive wins between 1960 and 1980 for the Three Lions, but more recent history points towards Spanish domination with five Spain wins in the last eight meetings since 2004.
Having said that, there hasn’t actually been a match between the two nations since 2018. This match was a Nations League encounter, and actually one of Gareth Southgate’s more famous wins in his early tenure which set one of the building blocks for his England side.
It ended 3-2 to England in Spain, but England had gone 3-0 up in a scintillating first half with two goals from Raheem Sterling, and one from Marcus Rashford. Only three England players from that match are potential starters Jordan Pickford, Kieran Trippier, and captain Harry Kane. Spain will have nobody in the starting XI who started in that 2018 clash.
Whilst there is probably little to read into the match from a betting perspective, the match probably does still have some relevance in that Southgate, his coaching staff, and a couple of key players will have positives to draw upon and nothing to fear from playing the Spanish.
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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