Ever since Julian Nagelsmann was appointed as Germany manager in September 2023, their matches have averaged 3.125 goals. This comes as no major surprise considering his style of play, which undoubtedly leads to goals for, and regrettably against as well. In this current UEFA Nations League campaign, over 2.5 goals has occurred in all three group-stage fixtures. The Netherlands have experienced plenty of goals in their most recent encounters. Over their last five matches, they have averaged 3.80 goals. The Dutch failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those, and now they are minus the suspended Virgin van Dijk, clearly their strongest defender, it presents another case for goals. It is a match they could do with winning as well, or at the very least drawing. Given they lack clean sheets, they’ll probably need at least score two themselves to get a positive outcome.

Naturally, if over 2.5 goals is the expectation then there is a strong likelihood of both teams scoring as well. That certainly applies here. One standout reason is that both faced each other last month in a 2-2 draw; a highly exciting clash. Something similar is more likely to play out than not given both squads have notable absentees, meaning nothing is ruled out on Monday. 62.50% of Germany’s matches under Nagelsmann featured both teams scoring. Once again, this highlights their general open style of play that is rather high-risk. The manager perhaps isn’t so concerned about them conceding, just as long as they score more than the opponent. Netherlands manager Ronald Koeman may have been a strong defender in his playing days but that hasn’t been reflected in this team. They’ve not kept a clean sheet in any of their previous five, but have also scored in all contests of that run, too.

Within two minutes of the September head-to-head meeting, there had already been a goal scored. The Netherlands opened the scoring on that occasion, yet they would find themselves behind at half-time. This upcoming contest really has the feeling of a shootout given the high number of goals their recent matches have contained. Since the beginning of 2022, only four of Germany’s 24 international fixtures have failed to produce a first-half goal. Within this period, these two nations have played each other (both this year), and those clashes average 2.50 goals inside the opening 45 minutes. As for the Netherlands, nine of their previous ten international clashes also had a first-half goal within them. The one time it didn’t was when drawing 0-0 against France at Euro 2024. Maybe most concerning for Koeman is that his team are on a five-game run of conceding in the first half themselves.

Deniz Undav is a player really at the top of his game right now. He has achieved a return of eight goals over his previous eight appearances for club and country. The former Brighton man has wrestled his way onto the international scene recently and he has very much made a name for himself. His last two caps have yielded three goals from the in-form forward, including a strike against the Netherlands already. His brace in Friday’s 2-1 away victory over Bosnia & Herzegovina should ensure he retains his spot in the team. He was even subbed in the match at 2-0 to protect him ahead of Monday’s clash in Munich, meaning freshness isn’t a major concern either.

Xavi Simons is now in his second season playing in German football with RB Leipzig and has certainly made an impact in that time. He should relish this opportunity to impress on the big stage in the country where he plays his club football. If his form this season is anything to go by then working the goalkeeper at least once is to be expected. The forward has done so in ten of 15 appearances for club and country in 2024/25. Simons is now becoming one of the more established players under Ronald Koeman in the Dutch setup. It wasn’t so long ago he was at a point where he was really having to prove himself after struggling to make an impact for the national team. That’s not the case now and he is an automatic first choice in the starting eleven. In his three international appearances since the start of September, he is averaging 3.33 shots per game, so he is clearly enjoying turning up for the Netherlands these days.

Micky van de Ven began the last international game but has not been a regular starter for the Netherlands. However, he is presented with an opportunity to start back-to-back encounters here against Germany. After playing left back in the Hungary game, Koeman is set to slot him into the centre-back role he plays so well for his club given Virgin van Dijk will serve a suspension. Therefore, he’ll be eager to really showcase his best talents, which include his marauding runs forward. These will open up shooting opportunities now and then. He is not really a frequent striker on goal, but he did do so in the last match versus Hungary, and from left back. He will get that chance to bring the ball forward from a more central area and shoot on goal from distance with his powerful striking ability. Plus, he will have moments on set-piece situations to get into the box, and he will be more of a target now van Dijk is missing. The 23-year-old even had two shots on goal in a recent club match for Tottenham away to Manchester United. He is yet to open his scoring account for the campaign but he is clearly someone that has an offensive side to his game that is just waiting to burst out at every opportunity.

There is no doubt that Germany and the Netherlands are the two headline names within their UEFA Nations League group. Hungary and Bosnia & Herzegovina would also agree! Therefore, when they face one another in this situation, emotions are likely to be high. This would be the case when they last met last month. Germany received four yellow cards on that occasion, including three of their back four on the night. The German side have also been known to be somewhat over-exuberant when they do come up against the bigger nations. This has been reflected in the amount of cards they have received in them. Against Spain in Euro 2024, they were booked six times, and they even had two when playing the Netherlands in a friendly earlier this year. Referee Slavko Vinčić is used to the big occasion having officiated the UEFA Champions League final earlier this year. In that season as a whole, he still averaged 4.07 cards, so he clearly isn’t afraid to head to his pocket.

Germany will of course play to win here but they do hold the advantage in the group given they’re two points in front of the Netherlands. However, Julian Nagelsmann has noted the amount of key injuries they have heading into this international cycle; notably Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala. Therefore, they may ever so slightly change their tactic and look to be more protective than normal. As such, the Dutchman should get some chances, especially as they probably need the win more. The Netherlands also enjoyed four shots on target versus Germany in their much-discussed meeting played last month. They’ve also recorded a minimum of four shots on target in each of their UEFA Nations League clashes this season. Traditionally, the Dutch are an attacking outfit and despite going away to Germany they won’t be looking to shut up shop.