Backing quarterback rushing in high leverage situations is one of my favorite things to do, and CJ Stroud is a great target against the Ravens. There are two kinds of quarterback rushers, guys that benefit from designed runs drawn up in the playbook, and guys that get all their yards through scrambles. While Stroud may get one designed run in short yardage situations, almost all of his rushing attempts are going to likely come from escaping pressure and trying to create downfield plays. He may not be Lamar Jackson, but we are getting a good number because Stroud isn't really known as a runner. He’s over this number in 4 of their last 5 losses, and in a negative game script he’s in a great spot to continue that. To go a step further, I love backing mobile quarterbacks in games where the traditional rush game should struggle. The Ravens are a top 3 EPA per play rush defence and should give Joe Mixon some problems, when teams struggle in the traditional run game they supplement that with short passing and quarterback rushing. Looking at his weapons, it's pretty much just Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz with the injury to Tank Dell, so it will be easier for the Ravens to key in on those two key targets and force Collins out of the pocket.

When you think of the kind of wide receivers that are stylistically built to beat the Ravens, Nico Collins should definitely be on that list. Baltimore has had one lingering problem all year, they can't spot explosive plays through the air. They have one of the best run defences in football which has forced teams to switch to the pass against them at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Naturally it's best to take the path of least resistance against a strong D-line and linebacker core, and I think we see Stroud become more aggressive through the air. He’s been criticised heavily for his play this season, and locking in with his #1 weapon will be huge here. The other big factor here is the injury to Tank Dell. They have now lost both Stefon Gillmore and Tank Dell this season, leaving just Collins as the remaining starter. They even lost WR3 John Metchie last game, leaving them using 50-yard old Robert Woods again. The lack of talent in this wide receiver room is apparent, and Nico Collins should see an increase in his already league leading target share. He already has a 30% target share on 3.15 yards per route run, we can likely expect 10+ target volume in this one.

While CJ Stroud may not benefit from designed quarterback rushing plays, his opponent Lamar Jackson definitely will. Jackson is truly one of the best duel threat quarterbacks in the NFL, and after not showing off his legs as much last week I think we see a huge game on the ground. While I think Derrick Henry will be the guy to punch in the touchdown, I think Lamar Jackson is the guy to bring them down the field. The Texans have been good at limiting opposing packs, especially hitting them before the line of scrimmage ranking top 8 in stuff rate. This should force the Ravens to get creative on the ground, and Lamar can be used in a variety of RPO packages. Jackson is second in the NFL in 10+ yard rushes only behind Saquon Barkley, he can create an explosive play out of thin air. The Texans D-line is one of the best in the NFL, especially in terms of quick pressure ranking 4th in the NFL. When you get to the quarterback that quickly it will force them to make snap decisions and for Lamar that involves carrying the ball. While he missed against the Steelers, they practice with the closest athletic replacement possible in Justin Fields, and have an already strong defense. He was over the two matchups before that, and I think we see that heavy volume return against a Texans team who struggles to stop mobile quarterbacks.