I'm a Bolton believer, I think that they will prove themselves to be one of the best teams in the league over the course of the season, but I also believe that they are too short here.

As much as Steven Schumacher's side have done really well from a performance data and expected goals perspective, their results haven't matched that, and for them to be favourites here dismisses Huddersfield at home a bit too easily from my perspective.

7th-placed Huddersfield have only been beaten once at home in their six League One matches, winning four of them. They have also got an expected goals difference of +0.52 per match, which means that they are generating chances worth just over half an expected goal more than their opponents on average in each match. Bolton's xG differential this season is +0.58, so there isn't actually that much difference in their performance data.

Bolton have also lost their last two away games, 2-0 to Northampton (14th) and 3-0 to Burton Albion (20th). It goes without saying that a trip to Huddersfield is a more difficult task than either of those, though I also accept that Bolton dominated both encounters without scoring. The fact is, though, they haven't won an away match in League One this season. So I'm happy to take the 1.50 on that six-game winless run on the road continuing, against a decent Terriers outfit.

The Chelsea loanee seems to be blossoming at Huddersfield this season, and, importantly for us, is a real shot threat.

Castledine has started the last four matches for Huddersfield after trying to establish himself in the first XI since the summer. Those four matches have seen him fire off eight shots in total, boosting his seasonal average to 2.58 shots per 90. His last three starts have all seen him beat the 2+ shot line as well, which is strong form for this leg of the bet.

I have already set out my case for Huddersfield to have a bigger share of the market for this match, therefore, it stands to reason that some of their shot lines should be good value as well. Castledine is a good example of this. He could, and should in my view, be shorter than 1.44.

The Bolton central defender has become a more frequent target for set pieces in recent weeks.

This has resulted in Forino's shots per 90 rising to exactly one shot per 90 minutes, and he has managed five shots in his last three matches, with two of those hitting the target.

Bolton have been using a variety of plans at corners, which seems to be allowing them to get more shots off. In the Burton match, Forino and his colleagues all lurked way beyond the back post and then charged towards the centre of the area to meet a clipped ball in. This resulted in a chance that Forino probably should have done better with, but he headed directly at the keeper.

I am expecting Bolton to win their fair share of corners here, more on that to come, so I also expect one of those to find the head of Forino.

Both of these teams are usually strong corner winning teams. Indeed, Huddersfield lead the corner count in League One with 88 corners won, and Bolton are 2nd in the standings with 79.

It is a rare occasion indeed when this is the case; the question is now about how this might play out in this match. Clearly both managers set their teams up to attack, and it is easy to see why both win so many corners, but, obviously, both teams can't attack at the same time here.

I have already said that I expect this match to be evenly matched, with both teams having spells of domination. I would expect those spells to come with corners for both sides, given how the two teams seem to be able to generate those corner opportunities.

Both teams dominate their corner count races in recent matches. Indeed, Huddersfield have covered 10+ corners on their own in two of their last four matches, and won 10 corners in their last match as well. In total, this line has been covered in 10 of Huddersfield's 11 league games this season.

It has also been covered in eight of Bolton's 12 matches, so I'm happy to add this shorter leg in to conclude the bet builder.