As mentioned above, Ipswich have not fallen away from the battle at the very top of the league. In fact, taking performance data measures from the beginning of 2024, Ipswich actually sit 2nd only to Leeds in expected points.

They have the second-highest xG generated in that time and a play-off standard xG against record too. Players such as Omari Hutchinson, Axel Tuanzebe, George Edmundson, and Lewis Travis, have played a greater role in the second part of the season and contributed really well to keep the high standards going.

Indeed, this is already becoming a Kieran McKenna trademark. Ipswich made a good run at the playoffs after McKenna initially took over mid-season, then they flew to promotion after a mid-season wobble last year in League One, and this season looks similar in style.

Southampton are the possession kings of the Championship. They have had the ball for two-thirds of their season, and it has led to them having the second-highest goal tally, third-highest xG, and the most shots on target in the league.

So whilst there will be tension in the stadium, both sides have demonstrated the quality to create chances, and both have the personnel to convert.

Ipswich’s home record is intimidating though, 14 wins from 19 matches, with only one defeat, which was all the way back in August to Leeds.

This is a huge match for both sides, with the best players on both sides likely to be given as much time as possible to affect the game.

From a goalscoring perspective, there are no bigger players than Kieffer Moore and Adam Armstrong for the two sides. Both men are averaging well over a shot on target per match, Moore is adept with his head but also with his trusty left boot as well.

Armstrong has been a long-time exponent of shooting in the Championship, though he has rounded out his game this season, he still has a high enough shot volume with enough going on target to be worth a bet in this match.

The other forward that looks to be a good value price is Omari Hutchinson. The Chelsea loanee has really improved during his loan spell and is playing all the minutes at the moment with Wes Burns out. This means that his shot on target price looks like a good value play at not far off even money.

This match is a relatively rare case of the away side not being favourites for the match, but still being favourites for the corner market.

The reason for this is because of Southampton’s incredible record of winning corners, especially away from home. Russell Martin’s men are leading the division by a long way in this regard, winning 8 corners on average away from St. Mary’s. They concede only 4.95 as well, so they are on average 3 corners clear of their opponents.

However, Ipswich are no average Championship team. Southampton tend to dominate possession and territory in the majority of their Championship matches, even away from home, but they surely won’t have their own way against the Tractor Boys.

Ipswich have a positive corner ratio at home. 6.47 corners earned average vs 3.74 conceded, this is almost 3 corners to the good. With this in mind, it is worth supporting Ipswich at odds against in the corner match bet market.

Firstly, we have to address the prices in this market. There are a number of players who are 1/9 or shorter for a foul, the prices would suggest that they are around 90% sure that five players will commit a foul. These prices are too short to get involved with, especially as the likes of Sam Morsy and Massimo Luongo have actually both had at least a couple of matches without any fouls recently.

Omari Hutchinson has recently established a place in the starting XI, especially with Wes Burns injured, and he has a really high fouls record. Indeed, his last two starts have seen him foul 2 and 3 times. He has a regular foul record as a starter, committing at least 2 fouls on numerous occasions when starting.

Axel Tuanzebe is another one who has established a starting place, but at right-back rather than his usual centre-back role. In this five-match run at right back Tuanzebe has fouled in four of them, including twice in the last match against Blackburn. He is a big price for that kind of record.

Finally, Flynn Downes is also a decent price to add to the builder. He has been a very regular fouler in midfield, which is bound to be something of a battleground here. He has 6 in his last three matches so the 2+ line could be worth taking on Downes.