Since their Euros disappointment, Italy look a much more aggressive team, particularly compared to previous Azzurri sides, and we’ve seen enough to suggest there could be goals in this affair.

Each of their three Nations League clashes have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals, including clashes against France and Belgium, both of which produced four. Most recently, Italy has scored two inside half an hour against the Red Devils, and it could have been more were it not for Lorenzo Pellegrini’s early red card. Italy continued to look dangerous even after going down to 10 men, accumulating 1.85xG alone despite the setback.

In the case of Israel, their last six matches have all produced over 2.5 goals, including four competitive showings which have averaged 4.25 goals per game. Most recently they were on the wrong side of a 4-1 battering by France who were operating without star-player Mbappe.

Retegui has been in fine form in front of goal this season, bagging seven goals from his ten shots on target in Serie A. Overall he’s averaging 1.89 shots on target per 90 having fired off at least one in five of his six starts – the only exception being against Inter when Atalanta created nothing and got thrashed 4-0.

In the Nations League, Retegui has started matches against France and most recently Belgium, testing the keeper at least once on both occasions.

Israel are likely to be much weaker defensively, particularly given a win is surely needed here if they have any hope of avoiding the drop. So far during the tournament, Israel have averaged 6.33 shots on target against, conceding at least five in each of their three games.

Although Fagioli missed out on starting Italy’s clash with Belgium last time out, Pellegrini’s red card should free up some space in the midfield with the Juventus youngster likely to step in.

One constant in his game has been his fouling tendencies and he’s been very generously priced on this occasion. The defensive-midfielder has averaged 1.59 fouls per 90, being penalised at least once in each of his Serie A starts. He’s managed just two full 90’s in the league so far this season, sinning twice in each.

Given Italy are without Barella and Pellegrini, they’re not spoiled for depth in this department and he should play most if not all of the match.

Although his gametime has been pretty mixed this season, Frattesi is averaging 2.62 shots per 90 in the league, also firing off eight across his last three Serie A starts. This season is no anomaly for the tricky midfielder who averaged 3.08 shots per 90 last season under Inzaghi.

Frattesi has started all three of Italy’s nations league matches, taking two shots against Israel in the first international break in addition to four more in each of his matches against France and Belgium.

Depending on who replaces Lorenzo Pellegrini, Frattesi may be afforded even more licence to roam forward against Israel who’s defence will surely struggle to handle him; especially given Israel will have no choice but to play for a win or risk almost certain relegation.

Despite Spaletti’s job-security having reportedly been in jeopardy following Italy’s early Euros-exit, he now has them seemingly firing on all cylinders and they go into this clash firm favourites.

In addition to beating France by a two-goal margin, Italy were also two up against Belgium before going down to 10-men last time out. Despite the numerical-deficit they still looked dangerous and could easily have fought back even after Belgium equalised.

Israel have twice lost by 2+ goals in the Nations League, in matches against Belgium (3-1) and most recently France (4-1). If they hope to avoid almost guaranteed relegation, they’ll have to play for the win on Monday which could leave them even more vulnerable at the back.

There is only one reason Gandelman has been priced this generously for a shot and that’s due to his tactical versatility. He typically plays as a centre-mid for Gent or an attacking-midfielder for Israel but against Belgium he atypically started in centre-back which may well explain this pricing.

Last time out he was tasked with interlinking the midfield with Israel’s only forward meaning he found himself in some pretty advanced positions (when Israel had the ball). He went on to score his sides’ only goal in the match.

Over the course of the season he’s averaged 2.58 shots per game, firing off at least one in each of his seven league games as well as one more against Chelsea in the Europa Conference League.

Although Italy’s defence will be tough to break down, they’re nonetheless averaging 10 shots conceded per 90 and have let in at least one goal in every game so far.

Neither team tends to be particularly dominant in the corner department and we think there may be very few in this clash. None of Israel’s matches in the Nations League have exceed the 9.5 threshold whilst only one of Italy’s have, as they conceded 12 against Belgium largely due to going down to 10 men.

Italy have averaged just 2.33 corners per 90 so far in the Nations League, failing to win a single one against Belgium last time out. It was the same story in Israel clash game against France with them failing toad to the mere four corners they’d previously accumulated across their two games. When Israel played Italy earlier in the competition the match produced just five corners.

Looking a bit further back, only one of Italy’s Euros matches produced more than nine corners, and neither of Israel’s two friendlies did.

Raspadori is expected to step in to replace Lorenzo Pellegrini who was sent of last time out against Belgium.

The Napoli forward is averaging 1.39 fouls per 90 this season and sinned in his only Nations League start which came against Israel in the first international break. His last club start came against Palermo in the Coppa Italia where he committed a remarkable five fouls despite coming off early.

Israel are averaging 10 fouls won per game in the Nations League with a large portion of those being the result of high opposition presses. One of Raspadori’s responsibilities will be to lead the press against Israel which makes him a likely candidate in this market.