Kolo-Muani has been a consistent asset in the fouls-drawn market and having already demonstrated his proficiency in Italy following his January move from PSG, it’s a surprise to see him priced so generously.

The French forward averaged 1.80 fouls drawn per 90 in Ligue 1 which, as impressive as it is, represents his lowest season average since 2020/21 which was his first season of regular top-flight season football.

Inter’s back 3 don’t shy away from putting in a strong challenge when required, with Bastoni the most likely of the trio to get this bet over the line. The center-back has averaged 1.59 fouls per 90 in the league and his battle with Kolo-Muani should be enthralling.

Thuram’s average of 1.23 fouls per 90 minutes across all competitions implies decent value here, and given the intensity that this game is expected to produce, this is definitely a likely outcome.

He’s sinned at least once in 13 of his last 18 starts (50+ minutes), with this selection also coming home in his last clash with Juventus. On that occasion, in addition to committing a foul himself, he was also fouled 5 times.

Thuram occupies a pretty dynamic position in Inter’s setup and tends to engage in duels all over the pitch. As such, he’s likely to profit off of Juventus’ average of 10.3 fouls drawn per match, further increasing the probability of him sinning.

Thiago Motta’s initial approach preaching defensive solidity and control seems to have largely vanished from view, following extensive injuries ruling out pretty much their entire backline. We’ve now seen each of their last 11 in the league produce 2 or more goals, with both teams scoring in all bar one.

No team has scored more goals than Inter in Serie A so far, as has typically been the case in recent seasons. Their matches have averaged 3.38 goals scored which is also amongst the league’s highest, setting this game up to be an epic affair. This selection has come home in 20 of their 24 league matches to date, notably including 12 of their last 13.

It’s also worth mentioning that in the reverse fixture, spectators were treated to an 8-goal thriller, with the points split evenly in a 4-4 spectacle.

Another interesting feature of Inter’s games is a notable lack of cards, with The Nerazurri picking up the second-fewest and their opposition the fewest cards of any team in Serie A. On balance, their matches have averaged no more than 2.75 cards, making the 6 threshold a real distance shot.

Juventus’ games tend to be similarly disciplined, with The Bianconeri having entered the book on the 4th fewest number of occasions of any team in the league. Their matches average 3.95 cards distributed meanwhile this selection has been a winner in each of their last 15 across all competitions.

Maurizio Mariani will be refereeing this game which adds further value to the selection given he’s averaged just 3.91 yellows per game in Serie A this season.

For a top side, Juventus’ average of just 4.79 corners per game is pretty poor and indicates they could see very few set-piece opportunities against Inter who have conceded just 3.21 per game this season.

That said, Inter do average an impressive 6.29 corners per game in the league so we’re partially relying on Juventus to bring this total down to something more in line with their average of 4.83 conceded per 90. In recent matches, this average has fallen, in fact just 2 of Inter’s last 9 games have produced over 9.5 corners.

10 of Juventus’ most recent 11 games have seen both teams find the back of the net at least once, with The Bianconeri only managing to keep a clean sheet against AC Milan over the period, meanwhile, Juventus have scored in all 11. Juventus were perhaps fortunate in the aforementioned clash with The Rossonerri given that they conceded 1.18xG on the day.

As for Inter Milan, their matches have been typically high-scoring, averaging 3.38 goals scored. 5 of their last 8 domestic matches have seen both teams score, with Inter keeping a clean sheet in the bulk of the exceptions. With Juventus on good goalscoring form and Kolo-Muani making an instant impact, this could be a tall order for The Nerazurri.

Dumfries has been bizarrely priced at huge odds to fire off 2 shots during the 90, despite his average of 1.76 across all competitions this season.

The Dutch wingback has fired off at least 2 shots in 13 of his most recent 17 appearances spanning at least 70+ minutes. Those matches were by no means limited to weaker opponents and included tougher clashes with Arsenal, Atalanta, Milan (x2), and Juventus in the reverse fixture.

Juventus’ defence has significantly weakened since then, conceding an average of 13.5 shots per game across their last 8. To put that into context, that’s over double what they conceded on average over their first 8 games.

Kolo-Muani’s signing has been somewhat of a revelation for Juventus who had previously remained patient with Vlahovic for several years despite never really coming into form and spilling chance after chance.

Kolo-Muani has averaged 1.34 shots on target per 90 since landing in Turin, testing the keeper at least once in all 4 appearances in a Juventus shirt. Previous to that he’d averaged 1.80 shots on target per 90 in Ligue 1 this season despite his minutes being very limited.

Inter’s defence has been pretty solid this season although The Nerazurri’s matches sometimes spill out of control and become end-to-end, open affairs. This is what unfolded last time out when Juventus put 4 past them earlier this season, and spectators might hope for a similar outcome which would see Kolo Muani receive plenty of opportunities.