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Lazio v Roma

The stage is set for the first Derby della Capitale of the season as the Stadio Olímpico plays host to Lazio v Roma in what’s sure to be a frantic and highly charged affair on Sunday afternoon. Not only is this derby the most hotly contested in Italy, it’s regarded as the fiercest rivalry in European football and this should be an absolute firecracker of a game. There are plenty of exciting betting angles for this one, not least in the cards market, and that’s where we focus attention in this article.

Lazio arrive at this game having collected three valuable points in the Champions League against Feyenoord on Tuesday evening, a game which saw Ciro Immobile reach a landmark 200 goals for the club in a 1-0 win. Maurizio Sarri’s side now sit in the qualification places with real ambitions of reaching the knockout stages of that competition.

After losing three of their opening four games in Serie A, the hosts have recently built some momentum as credible wins against Fiorentina and Atalanta has seen them climb to mid-table through the first eleven games of the season.

Roma made a similar sluggish start to their campaign and only managed one win in their opening six league games, a string of results that put José Mourinho firmly under the spotlight. However, a run of six wins from their last eight in all competitions has certainly seen them turn a corner and they will take encouragement from the manner in which they beat Leece last weekend.

Having trailed 1-0 after 90 minutes, goals from Sardar Azmoun and Romelu Lukaku sparked wild celebrations in a thrilling 2-1 comeback win, positive feeling that they can carry into this one.

Mourinho and Sarri have exchanged a war of words in the build up to the game, adding fuel to the fire. Following Lazio’s win against Feyenoord, Sarri took a swipe at Roma’s match against Slavia Prague in the Europa League stating “Roma can afford a friendly on Thursday and we played a war tonight, there is a fundamental difference”.

Mourinho hit back, saying “I think that if someone ought to feel offended about that comment, it is Slavia Prague and not me. Perhaps this is the difference in a coach who has won 26 titles and another that has barely won anything”.

With the focus on Card Watch, it was a punters dream to see that Davide Massa has been nominated to officiate the game. The 42-year-old Italian referee topped the standings last season for number of cards produced per match as he averaged 6.21 yellows and 0.29 reds in his 14 appearances.

I think that if someone ought to feel offended about that comment, it is Slavia Prague and not me. Perhaps this is the difference in a coach who has won 26 titles and another that has barely won anything.”

Jose Mourinho hits back at Maurizio Sarri ahead of the Rome derby

That’s a staggering 87 yellows and 4 reds during that stretch of games. That trend has continued through to this season as Massa has already dished out 22 yellows in his 4 matches, an average of 5.5 per game. That’s something that provides encouragement for any Bet Builder.

Interestingly, the man in the middle oversaw the last derby between these sides back in March and it was absolute carnage. Brazilian defender Ibanez was sent off for Roma in the first half after a second bookable offense, while Byran Cristante and Adam Marusic both received straight reds after the final whistle for engaging in a brawl.

There were also seven yellows shown during the game and we can expect much more of the same in this latest encounter, especially in such an electrically charged and intimidating atmosphere that this fixture always seems to produce.

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Alessio Romagnoli

Alessio Romagnoli knows exactly what this fixture means. Having come through the ranks at Roma, the centre-back spent most of his career at AC Milan before making the switch back to the capital to sign for Lazio in 2022. Prone to making the odd rash challenge, it’s no wonder he ranks highly for fouls committed and is averaging exactly one per game in Serie A this season.

However, it’s the severity of these challenges that often lands him in hot water as he’s already collected three yellows in all competitions this campaign. Romagnoli is likely to be marking Paulo Dybala and that could spell trouble for the Lazio man as the Argentinian draws on average at least two fouls per game.

Interestingly, the defender was booked in this fixture last season as he committed a mammoth five fouls during the 1-0 victory.

Prediction:

🟨 Alessio Romagnoli to be shown a card @ 2.50

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Luis Alberto

Luis Alberto is one component of a midfield trio in this Lazio team. Sarri’s favoured system means that the Spanish playmaker operates on the left side and he is ever present having played the most number of minutes of all the Lazio midfielders this season.

Known for his defensive work rate, Luis Alberto is renowned for getting involved in exchanges in the centre of the park, evidenced by the five bookings he has already accumulated in all competitions this season. Another one of the players booked in the latest meeting between these sides, he’s likely to be in the thick of things again here, especially as he draws plenty of fouls himself, averaging 1.2 per game.

Likely to be up against Gianluca Mancini, the winger could get involved in a heated battle and an accumulation of fouls could see him end up in the referee’s notebook.

Prediction:

🟨 Luis Alberto to be shown a card @ 3.60

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Felipe Anderson

It’s a shame that Mattia Zaccagni may be ruled out through injury as the young attack-minded forward is a prime candidate for a card, however, there are plenty of alternative options and Felipe Anderson gets the vote.

The combative Brazilian forward committed two fouls against Roma in the 1-0 win back in November and was fortunate to escape a booking in that match. Likely to be employed on the right side of the front three, he could come up against the athletic and powerful Ivorian Evan Ndicka who has established himself at left-back since signing from Eintracht Frankfurt in the summer.

The defender could frustrate Felipe Anderson and it’s conceivable that he lashes out and commits at least one foul during the course of the game, and as tempers fly that one challenge could be enough to see him carded by Massa.

Prediction:

🟨 Felipe Anderson to be shown a card @ 4.00

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Bryan Cristante

Bryan Cristante leads Serie A in terms of number of fouls committed this season (a lofty 25 fouls in just 11 appearances), and that tells you all you need to know about the reckless hot-headed Roma man.

Renowned for his physicality, the tall deep lying midfielder also finished in the top 10 for fouls committed in the 2022/2023 season, and he’s certainly one to focus on here, especially in a heated derby match against a bitter rival where tensions are likely to be high.

Cristante will be tasked with preventing through balls being fed into a fired-up Ciro Immobile following his milestone in midweek, and that could result in him getting caught on the turn and racking up a few cynical fouls. The Italian has already been booked three times this season and was heavily involved in the previous meeting between these two.

Prediction:

🟨 Bryan Cristante to be shown a card @ 2.40

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Edoardo Bove

With Leandro Paredes ruled out of this game through suspension, it’s more than likely that the young Edoardo Bove gets the nod from Mourinho in midfield. A product of the youth academy, the Under 21 Italian international is beginning to establish himself as a regular having broken into the first team last season.

However, Bove is still a little naïve and inexperienced at this level, especially in such a high-profile game such as this one. Despite making just six starts in the league, he’s already managed to amass 17 fouls, second only to Cristante in that metric, and he may be embroiled in a battle against the likes of the experienced Matías Vecino and the equally robust Mattéo Guendouzi.

This would be his first taste of the Derby della Capitale and the occasion may just get the better of him, resulting in a booking.

Prediction:

🟨 Edoardo Bove to be shown a card @ 2.50

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Gianluca Mancini

Gianluca Mancini is always worth consideration when looking at the cards market, especially given the regularity in which he finds himself in the book. The defender has been prolific when it comes to fouls and has accumulated a staggering 73 yellows and 4 reds during his time in the capital, with those coming in just 194 appearances for the club.

That equates to a card every 2.5 games played which is simply unfathomable. The strapping defender is experienced but can be susceptible to losing his cool and bringing his opponents, often committing tactical fouls to break up counter-attacks.

Mancini can play anywhere across the back line and is likely to be tasked with marking Ciro Immobile, but the real trouble may come from the bench with the likes of Pedro looking to stretch the game late on which could land the defender in bother.

Prediction:

🟨 Gianluca Mancini to be shown a card @ 2.00

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets *

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *

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