EFL League One Play-Offs 24/25 - Outright Tips & Trends
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League One Play-Offs Outrights & Trends
⬆️ Charlton to be Promoted @ 3.40 with SkyBet
🏁 Leyton Orient to Reach the Final @ 2.50 with SkyBet
⬇️ Load both as singles below
This is going to be a great play-off for the right to play Championship football next season. Three of the four teams come into the play-offs in excellent form.
To help us predict who has the most potential to get into the final and, ultimately, take their place in the Championship, we have crunched the numbers of current form, head-to-head records, and past trends to produce the best form guide available, and data-informed angles in the betting markets.
League One Play-Offs Predictions
Charlton look to be the best option in the outright market for promotion.
All of the indicators in the form and data point to the fact that they should be favoured over Wycombe in the semi-final, which makes them a good bet to reach the final as well as for overall promotion.
It would likely be a very tight match-up between Charlton and Stockport in a play-off final, as the two draws between them in the league suggest, but Stockport have to get past Orient yet, which isn't a given by any means.
Charlton have a strong record over Orient this season, and therefore, that adds a little bit more value to their outright price here.
In general terms as well, there is an experience and knowhow about the group of players and, of course, Nathan Jones, many of whom have operated at a higher level already in their careers and have demonstrated, especially in the second half of the season, an ability to get the results when they need them.
Charlton to be Promoted @ 3.40 with SkyBet
In the other semi-final, we are tipping something of a shock. Stockport are clearly an excellent team but there is a big price differential between them and Leyton Orient on a two-outcome market.
Stockport deserve to be favourites, they finished quite a number of points above Orient in the league, and they have a lot of data that point in their favour as well.
However, Orient did go to Edgeley Park during the regular season and put a big win on the board. Richie Wellens’ side are the team in the best form in terms of wins and points coming into the tie and we have seen that this is a strong indicator of success in League One.
Leyton Orient to Reach the Final @ 2.50 with SkyBet
💻 Current Form
In the last five seasons, since COVID, no teams have had more than 15 points from the last six matches coming into the play-offs. Both Leyton Orient (18) and Stockport County (16) have more than that this time around. Even Charlton’s 13 points is a historically big total, so if you are a believer in form being important, then Wycombe have an uphill task ahead of them to achieve promotion.
Looking closer into Orient's form, though, there are reasons to believe that they have been slightly flattered by their run of wins. There is not much in their performance data to suggest that they have been dominant in their matches, or, indeed, better than Stockport or Charlton in particular.
It is Stockport's data that is particularly impressive, with the highest xGF and the lowest xGA totals in the last six matches.
📊 Head-to-Head Records (2024/2025)
Home advantage has been way out of the window in League One amongst this cohort of teams.
Stockport haven't won a home game against any of their opponents here, and actually have a -8 goal difference against them.
Wycombe and Orient also have two home defeats against their fellow play-off contenders.
It is Charlton who come out of this analysis head and shoulders above the others. Unbeaten in all six matches, having done the double over Wycombe and Leyton Orient, and drawn both encounters with Stockport.
🗒️ Historical Data
There is a fairly even spread across all of the finishing positions for the League One play-offs but the advantage definitely goes to the third placed team, who have been promoted in four of the last 10 seasons.
This includes Sheffield Wednesday in 2023 and Blackpool in 2021.
There does look to be some evidence that good form going into the play-offs in League One can help attain promotion.
In three of the past four seasons the team that won promotion had 13 or more points from the last 18 available. This trend will continue as long as Wycombe don't go up this time.
📈 Correlation and Coefficient of Determination Calculations
The correlation calculations actually support a fairly weak correlation for most of the form indicators.
The strongest relationship is for the number of points won prior to the play-offs with the coefficient of determination calculation suggesting that 17% of the promotion can be explained by this points won form.
Plenty of research has been undertaken to find the best value outright positions for the EFL League One, so let’s dig into our EFL League Two Predictions.
We'll be all over the EFL this season, including our usual selection of EFL Accumulator Tips for every round of fixtures. It’s not just English football we cover on Andy’s Bet Club either, with a range of Football Betting Tips & Predictions on the site every day.
We have a litany of the top UK bookmakers on offer for you to join and build up your free bet credits, as well including our Best Accumulator Bookmakers article.
Our Championship Play-Offs Outright Predictions and League Two Play-Offs Outright Betting Tips may also pique your interest ahead of the big kick-off, as well as our Golden Boot predictions.
You can see our experts' Championship Golden Boot Tips here, along with our League One Top Goalscorer Tips and League Two Golden Boot Predictions.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing *
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