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Leeds v Burnley
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Kick Off: Saturday 14th September at 12:30
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Competition: Championship
Leeds and Burnley go head-to-head at Elland Road in the marquee fixture of Saturday’s Championship action.
The Clarets are seeking an immediate return to the Premier League but despite positive results so far, their performances have been lacking. Leeds, meanwhile, are attempting to bounce back from the disappointment of last season’s play-off final defeat to return to the top flight at the second time of asking.
Leeds will be backed by a strong home crowd as always at Elland Road and they will be keen to continue their climb up the table, with three points against a team expected to be a fellow promotion rival likely to be a massive boon to their early season confidence.
Leeds v Burnley Best Bets
Leeds to win this match looks the most likely outcome here. The Yorkshire outfit have been impressive all season despite some early struggles and variance going against them at the start of this term. They are one of the better sides in the division, as demonstrated by the underlying statistics where they have the best xPts (expected points) at home whilst sitting second in the table for non-penalty xG (expected goals) ratio.
Leeds were pre-season favourites for the title and despite losing several key players still should find themselves fighting for automatic promotion come the end of the season. Only one side has registered more shots on target at home than Leeds in the Championship, and no side has had more shots in the box than the Lilywhites
Burnley are in a false position given their underlying performances especially those highlighted against Luton and Cardiff. They are the ninth-best side on away xPts and on the non-penalty xG ratio.
The Clarets will be good defensively given they have only conceded an average of 2.5 shots on target per away fixture this term, but Leeds should have enough going forward to trouble them. The number of new players signed by Burnley over the last few weeks may well hamper them as they attempt to settle into the side.
Burnley’s away performances have been mixed when looking at the underlying data. They sit 12th for shot ratio, 16th for touches in the box ratio and 13th for shots in the box ratio. This suggests they are a side that has overachieved so far this season and is unlikely to continue. Overall we have them ranked as only the 11th-best side away from home in the Championship this season.
Leeds to win the match is a little short, but backing Leeds to win & under 4.5 goals gives the bet a nice odds boost. Leeds have only conceded in the opening game of the season and with Burnley’s xG of just 0.57 on the road, we are confident there will be fewer than five goals here.
📂 Leeds v Burnley Cheat Sheet
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📊 Leeds Form and Stats
Despite losing some key players over the summer Leeds should be in and around the top two come the end of the season. They are unbeaten this season having won two and drawn two of their four games. The Lilywhites were unfortunate to draw their opening game of the season 3-3 as they dominated the match against Portsmouth winning the xG battle 3.2 to 0.98 and taking 21 shots to Pompey’s four.
Next up came a good point at West Brom, which was a tight game with neither side doing enough to win. They then followed this up with back-to-back 2-0 wins over both Sheffield Wednesday and Hull City. Since that 3-3 draw with Portsmouth, they are yet to concede a goal and have a total xGA (expected goals against) of 1.28 since the opening day of the season, allowing just four shots on target.
No side has a higher xG this season with 1.41 per game and they sit in the top two for all my main metrics.
📊 Burnley Form and Stats
Newly relegated Burley started the season in spectacular form beating former Premier League side Luton Town 4-1 before thrashing Cardiff 5-0 at home. However, both these results were fortunate based on the xG scoreline. Burley scored four against Luton from a total xG of just 1.07 and then five against Cardiff from 0.34.
That implausible efficiency has of course fallen away quickly, with a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland followed by 1-1 against rivals, Blackburn. Their lofty league position of sixth looks to be slightly false with them 15th for xPTS and 13th for xGD (expected goal difference).
Only three sides have a worse touches in the opposition box ratio than Burnley, which demonstrates that they are struggling at both ends of the pitch. So far this season, Burnley have scored 10 goals from 2.28 xG.
It will be interesting to see how Burnley react to several key players being sold over the last few weeks of the transfer window and if this improves the underlying performance or sees them continue to struggle.
⚔️ Leeds v Burnley Head-to-Head
Leeds hold the upper hand against Burnley with a record of three wins and three draws from their last seven meetings. That one win for the Clarets came back in 2016 with Scott Arfield scoring the only game of the game. The Burnley team that day included Joey Barton, Michael Keane, Ben Mee, and Tom Heaton.
At Elland Road, Leeds won both of their last two games against Burnley, securing 3-1 and 1-0 wins when both sides were in the Premier League. The fixtures between these two sides in the Championship have Burnley undefeated with a 1-1 draw and 1-0 victory. This fixture also has a good history of cards, with the last four games averaging 3.75 cards. Both sides have received a card in five of the last six.
Their four meetings in the Premier League have been open with an average of 27.75 shots per game, with Leeds averaging slightly more than Burnley, with 15.2 per game. In the last fixture between these two sides, Leeds had 22 shots to Burnley’s eight as they won the game 3-1. However, this last meeting was the only time Leeds have won the shout in the four previous fixtures.
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* We recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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