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Leeds v Derby
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Kick Off: Sunday 29th December at 17:45
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Competition: Championship
Both of these teams are in a positive frame of mind after impressive wins in televised matches on Boxing Day. Leeds have hit the summit of the league and will be looking to consolidate their title challenge by inflicting a relatively rare home defeat on the Rams this season.
⭐ Derby v Leeds Best Bets
This round of fixtures is a repeat of the round from the first weekend of December. As a result, it is difficult to look away from Leeds in this match.
In the return match at Elland Road, Leeds completely dominated. Derby took only 3 shots all match, 1 of which was on target. Leeds had 63% of possession, which they turned into 18 shots and two goals, it was a very comfortable afternoon.
However, Leeds are 1.53 to win the match, which is a similar price to what they were at Stoke. Derby are in better form and are a better team, so the best bet is actually goal-related.
A narrow Leeds win looks the most likely result, so the Leeds to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 bet is in play at 2.87, but for the best bet we prefer the straight under 2.5 goals line at 1.75, which also then covers the potential 1-1 draw as well.
👕 Derby v Leeds Predicted XI
🔍 Derby v Leeds Players to Watch
⚪ Kane Wilson
Wilson is on something of a streak for fouls, committing 2 fouls in each of his last 3 starts. He is now averaging 1.2 fouls committed per 90 and will be up against either Manor Solomon or, if Farke decides to rotate his attack, Largie Ramazani. Both Leeds players attract a lot of fouls, so Wilson is a name to look for in the fouls-committed market.
🟡 Brenden Aaronson
Aaronson is beginning to show his worth after a difficult time since his relatively big money move from RB Salzburg. He is taking a lot of shots, with 9 in his last 2 matches. This has brought his shot average to 2.64 shots per 90, and his all-action style means that he is a regular target for fouls, averaging 1.42 fouls drawn per 90.
🟡 Joel Piroe
Piroe has a very particular skill set, one which means that he hasn’t always fit nicely into Daniel Farke’s best XI, but he is very cool in front of goal, as he showed again with his two goals vs Stoke.
Those goals took Piroe clear as Leeds’ most regular scorer, now averaging 0.65 goals per 90.
📂 Derby v Leeds Cheat Sheet
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💻 Derby v Leeds Form and Tactics
Derby’s results have been good of late, and Paul Warne has kept them clear of any trouble. They have gathered 20 points in 11 home matches, including 6 wins.
Warne’s ideal tactical setup would be a 4-3-3 with one holding midfielder. This is what they used at home to Portsmouth and West Brom, but away from home Warne has often turned to a 5 at the back system. They could do the same here, though obviously that change of shape was completely ineffective in the match earlier this month.
The performance data metrics are perfect for Leeds. They continue to have the most impressive performance data metrics in the leagues, 40.6 xG in 23 matches and only 15.9 conceded. It goes without saying that this is, therefore, the best in the league.
The Farke tactical setup doesn’t tend to deviate from a 4-2-3-1 formation, and he has great options in almost every position in that shape. Rotation is likely to take place for this match, but there are plenty of great options for Farke to bring in, such as Tanaka, Ramazani, Wilfried Gnonto, and Mateo Joseph.
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🏁 Derby v Leeds Ref Watch
- Referee: Andy Davies
- This season he averages 20.5 fouls given per Championship match, which is quite low in comparison to his peers
- He is averaging 3.47 yellow cards per fixture in the Championship in his career so far, which exactly matches his record of 3.5 cards per match this season
- Davies hasn’t yet given a red card this season but has given thirty in his EFL career so far, an average of 0.12 per match
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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