In this article…
Leeds v Sunderland
📅
Kick Off: Tuesday 9th April at 20:00
🏆
Competition: Championship
📺
Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
As ever here on Andy’s Bet Club we have a variety of EFL betting predictions and EFL accumulator tips sitting alongside our collection of expert football tips and our brand new both teams to score acca tips from the Premier League, Scotland and the rest of Europe.
Before you place your bets though, make sure you browse our carefully curated selection of free bets and all of the best bet builder bookmaker sites to make your money work for you. Those of you who enjoy placing a bet builder may also want to check out our handy guide to player fouls betting to help you do just that.
Leeds’ first defeat of 2024 at Coventry on Saturday means that the Whites go into the midweek round of fixtures back outside of the automatic promotion places by a single point.
There is certainly no need to panic with Leeds needing to only better Ipswich’s results by one point, but with the Tractor Boys playing on Wednesday, Leeds will want to pile the pressure on by leaping back over them in the league table.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have slipped into the bottom half after a run of one win in ten, and the club will have to settle for another season in the second tier. The natives are restless, with the pressure coming on the owners and decision-makers, with the policy of recruiting solely young talent coming under pressure from the vociferous fanbase in the North East.
Leeds are certainly the club with the biggest need for the points here. However, as we have seen on numerous occasions before, having motivation isn’t necessarily enough to deliver a performance. Indeed, a team that is freed by the lack of consequence for their results can often produce a performance because of those conditions.
By looking into the season-long, and more recent trends and data, we have come up with a few angles that may be of interest ahead of this televised encounter. Combined together they could form an interesting bet builder selection.
Leeds v Sunderland Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
🔥 Sign up to our free Gem Bet email here to be first to some standout selections.
There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets, and we encourage you to find your own methods for helping you pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.
You can find Leeds v Sunderland match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
🏆 Match stats: Sunderland’s decline apparent in the performance data
As far as overall performance data goes this is a slam dunk for the home side.
Leeds outstrip every team in the Championship almost no matter which way you slice it. They are top of the league throughout the whole season for expected points, xG for, and xG against. Breaking this down to the last two months makes little difference, Leeds still sit atop the rest in expected points, though Ipswich challenge them for xG produced, and Preston and Coventry boast more impressive xG against numbers.
From a Sunderland perspective though, the numbers are fairly damning. The Black Cats were a serial underperformer in their performance data all throughout the first half of the season under Tony Mowbray. This means that looking at the data across the whole season would lead you to believe that they are a top-half side in quality.
This may well be the case when looking at the individual players, but in truth, the performances have decreased in quality alarmingly. When concentrating on the last two months of matches, Sunderland are down in the bottom quarter of the league for expected points.
Whilst xG production is still, just, over 1xG per game, the defensive record has taken a hammering, conceding over 1.5xG on average per match. This has resulted in being outplayed too often and dropping too many points as a result.
Leeds have won nine home matches in a row, and haven’t lost at Elland Road all season. They are running at an almighty +1.9xG differential per match, which means that they are creating almost 2 goals a game worth of chances more than their visitors.
Sunderland have won twice in ten away from home and have a -0.6xG differential over that period.
There can be little doubt that the form and data point towards a single outcome for this match.
Predictions:
⚽ Leeds to win @ 1.25
⚽ Leeds (-1 handicap) @ 1.87
🎯 Shooting stats: Summerville the most reliable of the Leeds forwards to solve this puzzle
In a game where the pressure will be on for Leeds to deliver, Daniel Farke is more likely to turn to his trusted lieutenants. In the forward line that usually includes Georginio Rutter and Crysencio Summerville.
Out of all of the options available to him, any of whom have proven themselves capable of contributing positively to the team through shots, goals, and assists, it is the younger options of Rutter and Summerville that feel likeliest to get the most time on the pitch.
This is a key benefit in this market with the expectation that these players will only come off if Leeds are comfortable in the game already, which would also mean that there is a decent chance that Summerville or Rutter have hit the target already.
Rutter is just under a shot on target per 90 over the course of the whole season, whereas Summerville is at 1.26 per 90, which probably makes him the slightly better bet here.
For Sunderland, Adil Aouchiche is a decent price. The former Saint-Etienne ‘wonder kid’ has taken a while to establish himself on Wearside but he is the only Sunderland player to average over 1 shot on target per 90, and he is on penalties for the Black Cats. He is actually the fifth name in the betting for Sunderland so he is being underestimated at this moment in time.
Predictions:
⚽ Crysencio Summerville to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.22
⚽ Crysencio Summerville to have 2+ shots on target @ 2.10
⚽ Georginio Rutter to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.22
⚽ Adil Aouchiche to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.10
🚩 Corners stats: Leeds corner lines to be supported
With Leeds in such a close-run race for promotion, one would think that even if the Whites went ahead early here they would continue to press on. Firstly to secure the win, but also to keep their goal difference healthier than their main rivals’.
Leeds have a strong corners record at home. They earn 6.45 corners per match and concede only 2.6 corners to their visitors, the least number of corners conceded at home in the Championship, which would back up their heavily odds-on price in the match bet here.
However, though the price is short, it is difficult to envisage a scenario in which Sunderland exert enough pressure to match Leeds’ corner win rate, especially bearing in mind Leeds’ historical record in keeping visitors at bay.
If the home side are frustrated for a while by Sunderland then there is a case for backing the over lines for the home side. It is one of those situations that is dependent on game state but it is a scenario that is easy to envisage.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 5.5 Leeds corners @ 1.50
⚽ Over 6.5 Leeds corners @ 1.85
⚽ Leeds corner match bet @ 1.22
🛑 Fouls stats: Ekwah a big price for multiple fouls
It is obvious to look towards Georginio Rutter in the fouls market whenever Leeds are playing. However, the bookmakers have long since cottoned onto the style of the young Frenchman and restricted his prices accordingly.
Sunderland have a couple of interesting options in the market. Jobe Bellingham has evolved into more of a forward player than a midfielder, but he still gets himself involved in the physical side of the game. He is on a five-match fouling streak so his price looks quite appealing based on this.
Pierre Ekwah is another player of interest because of Rutter picking up the ball in those deep central positions. The former West Ham youth product is one who is likely to be tasked with stopping the Frenchman at source before he threatens the box. He has fouled in four consecutive matches, including 5 in his last two, which makes him the best value selection in the market.
Predictions:
⚽ Jobe Bellingham to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.44
⚽ Jobe Bellingham to commit 2+ fouls @ 3.30
⚽ Pierre Ekwah to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.61
⚽ Pierre Ekwah to commit 2+ fouls @ 4.0
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
18+ please gamble responsibly.