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Leicester v Blackburn Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Leicester v Blackburn Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

EFL
Starts Today, 12:30
Friday 31 October, 20254 min read
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This is a clash between two clubs who could be fairly described as underachievers at this stage. Leicester have been too reliant on moments of individual brilliance, whilst Blackburn have struggled through a radical rebuild. Expectations will be high at the King Power for a home win, but will it be that easy?

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Leicester v Blackburn Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Leicester v Blackburn
  • Championship
  • 12:30
4 Selections @ 5.24

Over 2.5 Blackburn Corners

Leicester are deserving favourites, but there is enough doubt about them, and enough positives in Blackburn’s performances to swerve their price in the match markets.

The strength of Leicester in the match market though, has seemed to really drive down the price of Blackburn in the corner market, and I don’t think that has been balanced correctly. Presenting an opportunity to jump on some value.

Blackburn actually do quite well away from home. They have had two victories on the road, and are one of the few teams to actually threaten Coventry away, until they succumbed to a couple of long range strikes. They have won seven corners in three of their five away games so far this season, a repeat of that here is priced at 7.50, but they also won three corners at Charlton in a game they were soundly beaten in.

Leicester have averaged 3.6 corners against in their five Championship home matches, but the opponents have been consistent. Only one of the five didn’t hit this line, that was Wrexham; the others won three or more and landed this bet.

Sean McLoughlin to have 1+ Shots

The former Hull centre back has been a consistent presence for Blackburn so far this season, and that consistency extends to his attacking contributions as well.

He has averaged 1.18 shots per 90 so far this season for Blackburn, but his golden period has been since returning from suspension five matches ago. In those five matches, McLoughlin has managed nine shots, with at least one per match.

He is a key target from set pieces, especially corners, and we have already made the case for Blackburn winning more corners than the bookmakers suggest that they will, so it makes sense that this shot price would also be a touch of value.

Wout Faes to Commit 1+ Fouls

This is a surprisingly big price for a single foul for the Leicester centre back.

Faes is the type of central defender who wants to be first in the challenge and to dominate his physical duels. He will be up against Andri Gudjohnsen and Yuki Ohashi. Faes may well be a favourite against either of those individuals, but they are also both fighters, and it is difficult to believe that there won't be fouls in either direction. 

Faes is running at 0.78 fouls per 90, but he has good recent data to support this bet. He has committed at least one foul in each of his last four matches and in seven of his last eight starts as well. This includes three occasions in which he committed two fouls.

Gudjohnsen draws 1.71 fouls per 90, and Ohashi draws 1.8 fouls per 90 so far this season as well, healthy numbers for getting a Faes foul onside.

Over 3.5 Cards

We're taking the over 3.5 cards line, and this is primarily based on the appointment of Tom Neild.

Neild has officiated five Championship matches this season, and is averaging 5.6 yellow cards per match so far. This is higher than his career Championship average, which is now standing at 4.2 yellow cards per match, but is still high enough to suggest that this is a good price for cards.

Neild has only fallen below this line once in the five matches he has refereed so far this season in the Championship, he also averages a really high 28 fouls given per match as well.

Neither team is a stranger to cards this season, either. Matches at the King Power average 3.6 yellow cards per match; two of the five matches have gone over this line.

Blackburn away games average 4.2 yellow cards, with three of their five going over this line. Blackburn themselves have had at least two yellow cards in their last four away matches.

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📈 Leicester v Blackburn Form & Tactics

It is very much a case of how you want to perceive Leicester’s form. They have only lost three of 13 matches, but they have only won one of their last eight, and lost their last two matches as well. Whichever way you slice it, it isn’t good enough for a team that was in the Premier League last season, is in full receipt of parachute payments, and had aspirations of promotion this season. Their two recent defeats were away from home, and, actually, Leicester remain unbeaten at home this season, albeit their last three matches have ended in a draw.

Delving into their performance data is not a pretty read. Leicester are down in 18th in the expected points league table, they are 14th for expected goals, and 20th for expected goals against. Simply put, the performances box-to-box haven’t been anywhere near the standard expected, and it seems as though Leicester are only two points off the play-offs due to individual moments of brilliance.

Blackburn picked up a much needed victory in their last Championship match v Southampton. Whilst this still leaves them 21st after a difficult start, there are actually a number of positive things in Blackburn’s performance data.

Surprisingly, and some of this will be game-state dependent, Blackburn sit 6th in the expected points table. This is the second biggest difference between position in the real table v the expected points table, behind only Southampton. Rovers are 8th for expected goals, 9th for big chances created, and, in an indication of their style of play, Rovers have produced the highest number of accurate crosses in the league.


📔 Leicester v Blackburn Formation & Team News

Leicester have been using a 4-2-3-1 system, with Patson Daka and Jordan Ayew sharing duties in the #9 role. Their stars have been in the wide forward roles, Abdul Fatawu, Stephy Mavididi, and Jeremy Monga have been the bright spots in Leicester’s season so far. They have experienced players in the back four and double pivot positions, but it doesn’t seem to be helping too much at the moment.

Aaron Ramsey and Bobby De Cordova-Reid are still out injured, but other than that, Marti Cifuentes has a full squad to choose from.

Blackburn have alternated between a back four and a three at the back system throughout the season. They are predicted to go with a 3-4-1-2 for this match based on the performance against Southampton, which allows them to pair Andri Gudjohnsen and Yuki Ohashi together. The #10 position should be Todd Cantwell’s, but he has missed the last couple of matches, and width is supplied by Ryan Alebiosu, who has been a standout for Rovers this season, and Dion De Neve.

Cantwell is unlikely to be back for this match, adding to Augustus Kargbo, Moussa Baradji, and Jake Garrett as midfield injuries. Hayden Carter is close to a return in defence.


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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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