Once again, Jhon Arias played a decisive role in another Fluminense win this season. The Colombian attacking midfielder opened the scoring with a free-kick in their 4-2 victory over Ulsan. Arias has been Fluminense’s standout performer, with 17 direct goal contributions in 30 matches.

At the Club World Cup, Arias ranks eighth among all players for total shots (7), with two of those on target—an average of one shot on target per game. He leads Fluminense in both categories.

Mamelodi's defense has been their Achilles heel. Against Dortmund, a misplaced pass from goalkeeper Ronwen Williams and a lack of compactness at the back proved costly. Dortmund finished with eight shots, six on target, and scored four goals.

Facing such an unsteady back line, Arias is expected to do what he’s done in four of his last five games: hit the target at least once.

No Mamelodi Sundowns player has committed more fouls at the Club World Cup than forward Tashreeq Matthews. Primarily playing on the left wing, the number 17 has committed at least one foul in each of their first two matches, totaling three fouls so far.

One reason is Matthews' defensive responsibilities. Out of possession, he often drops into a second line of five defenders, tracking back to help at the back. This role has led him to commit tactical fouls.

He’ll likely be under even more pressure against Fluminense, whose right flank is their main attacking outlet. That’s where Jhon Arias operates, driving play forward. The Colombian has already drawn five fouls in the tournament. Midfielder Martinelli (two fouls suffered) and right-back Samuel Xavier (two) also frequently push up that right side and will be in direct battles with Matthews.

Despite arriving at the final round of Group F in first place, Fluminense have yet to secure their spot in the Round of 16. To advance without relying on other results, the Brazilian side need a win.

Their performance against Ulsan, while not without some inconsistencies, was largely positive. Fluminense took 25 shots and leaned on another standout display from Jhon Arias to secure all three points. The match also marked the return of top scorer Germán Cano to the starting lineup.

Mamelodi Sundowns, on the other hand, were beaten by Borussia Dortmund in a match that combined promising attacking moments with some bizarre defensive errors. That defensive vulnerability is something Fluminense will look to exploit—whether through the wings and midfield with Ganso, Arias, Canobbio, and Alexsander, or more centrally in the final third with Cano and Everaldo.

Fluminense are favored across all major analytical pillars: recent form, individual quality, and team structure. Renato Gaúcho appears to have firm control of the squad, having made several changes against Ulsan without sacrificing competitiveness. Renê, Samuel Xavier, and Agustín Canobbio are expected to return to the starting lineup, further strengthening the team.

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches at the Club World Cup, highlighting not only their attacking strengths but also their defensive vulnerabilities. Mamelodi Sundowns caused real problems for Borussia Dortmund and even took the lead.

However, defensive errors proved costly, allowing the German side to come from behind. Statistically, Sundowns actually outshot Dortmund 16 to 8 but were less efficient in front of goal, managing just four shots on target compared to Dortmund’s six. Goalscorers Lucas Ribeiro and Iqraam Rayners will require close attention from Fluminense.

Fluminense’s 4-2 win over Ulsan confirmed two key things: they possess a high-quality attacking system, even with rotation. Cano replaced Everaldo, and Serna stepped in for Canobbio. The Brazilians dominated the match, took over 20 shots, scored four goals, and continue to benefit from Jhon Arias’ outstanding form. That said, both of Ulsan’s goals came from poor defensive transitions—something Sundowns' quick attackers could look to exploit.

With both sides boasting attacking firepower and defensive frailties, there’s every chance this match could deliver plenty of goals.