Pep Guardiola has watched his side score two or more goals in eight successive matches, and there’s little evidence to suggest Leeds will be able to stop that run.

City have been prolific even away from home in recent times, striking at least two goals in seven of their last ten road trips – including matches against Liverpool and Real Madrid. Leeds, meanwhile, are not known for their defensive strength.

They only have one clean sheet in their last ten games and two in their last 26. Against Champions League-level opponents, they have conceded ten times in their last three, including the recent 4-0 loss to Arsenal.

The head-to-head record also makes bleak reading: City have 2+ goals in all of their last 5 against the Elland Road club, including a 3-2 win in the reverse fixture.

The price still hasn't crashed on Semenyo shots on target, so I'm happy to get on while we can.

This has landed in 22 of his 26 Premier League appearances this season, including all of his last five.

He's as short as 1.17 in places to have 2+ shots; that's an implied probability of 86%. He's heavily odds-on to have three or more shots, too.

58% of his shots this season have been on target. If he continues that accuracy, he'd only need two shots to land one on target - and, again, he's 1.17 to have two shots or more.

The 2+ shots on target bet was covered by Semenyo via Super Sub in his last game, with Phil Foden replacing him and notching one late on v Newcastle.

He's so two-footed, he has so many options to create a shooting opportunity. He's generally regarded as right-footed, but he's actually had more shots with his left than his right this season.

At first glance, Nico O’Reilly’s season stats don’t make this an appealing bet.

After all, he has only 1.14 shots per 90. But in recent weeks, he’s been used in a more attacking role by Pep Guardiola, promoted to an offensively minded midfield area.

It’s a position he’s growing into. In his last two matches, he’s had seven shots. Having scored three of City’s last four games, he’s not going to be short of confidence either.

On top of this, Leeds are weak defensively through the middle; in recent games against top Premier League clubs, they have allowed five shots from Cole Palmer, four from Joelinton, and three each from Martin Zubimendi and Manuel Ugarte.

Man City are the 4th-most fouled team in the Premier League this season, and Bernardo Silva stands out as a slice of value at Elland Road.

The Portuguese is so comfortable taking the ball in tight areas and could entice duels with so many Leeds players as he drifts around the park, with City expected to have lots of the ball as Daniel Farke's men sit back to contain them.

Silva will likely operate around Ethan Ampadu and Ilia Gruev in central areas, who combine for 2.20 fouls per 90.

Super Sub offers insurance here. Silva has been subbed off four times this calendar year, three times for Tijjani Reijnders (0.86 fouls won per 90) and once for Phil Foden (1.31 fouls won per 90).

Leeds are one of the more passive teams in the league when it comes to pressing and will cede territory, but they'll bite in their own defensive third, and Silva is clever enough to find spaces to receive the ball in those areas.

Pep Guardiola is experimenting again, and his latest shape is a 4-1-3-2 with Marmoush and Haaland leading the line. It took me a while to dissect this shape, but it’s almost as though Pep has abandoned the use of wingers for now, with Semenyo playing in a very central role in City’s win over Newcastle recently, alongside Silva and O’Reilly who operate just ahead of Rodri.

Marmoush has always been a bit trigger happy, he’s had 18 shots across his five starts in the Premier League this season (3.64 per 90), with six of these attempts finding the target (1.21 per 90). This is quite a small sample size, but it remains promising when looking at his performances in the EFL Cup this season (10 shots across three games) and when looking at his shot volume in the Premier League last season (3.73 per 90).

Furthermore, I think one of my main frustrations with Marmoush is where he decides to take aim from. He loves taking on spectacular effects, which is probably why Pep gets a bit annoyed with him, but for the purposes of our selection here, Marmoush being willing to take on ambitious efforts should open up opportunities for him to have at least two shots on target, against a Leeds side that should sit quite deep.

Anton Stach has everything to be a top Premier League midfielder, with his incredible free kick against Aston Villa last time out being just the pinnacle of his influence on Leeds this season. Stach has registered seven goal contributions for Leeds this term, with four of these being goals, only Calvert-Lewin (11) has registered more goal contributions for Leeds.

Only Nmecha and Calvert-Lewin have scored more goals for Leeds in the Premier League this season than Stach, so he is the most important attacking player from a Leeds point of view outside of the two main striking options. Stach has taken 41 shots across his 21 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 2.07 shots per 90. 

11 of these attempts have found the target (0.56 per 90), which isn’t the strongest record, but this is mainly a result of Stach taking on ambitious efforts regularly. Leeds won’t get many opportunities in this clash, and are likely to be limited in the most part to set pieces and efforts from distance - both areas where Stach can play a crucial part in helping Leeds cause City some damage.

No Leeds player has picked up more yellow cards in the Premier League this season than Ethan Ampadu (7). This card count is a natural consequence of Ampadu being the most defensively minded of Leeds’ midfield, and he’ll have quite the task up against Man City’s new midfield structure. 

City should pack the midfield again for this clash, with Rodri operating just behind a trio of Silva, Semenyo and O’Reilly, which was the structure that Guardiola opted for in their win over Newcastle last time out. This gives Ampadu a variety of opponents to face up against, and it’s a challenge that I can see him struggling with at times, as City will outnumber Leeds in those midfield areas.