This line has come in a solid 10 yards lower than we expected. While Harris has had plenty of efficiency concerns on the season, the volume has remained consistent. In neutral game situations, this team has a bottom 3 pass rate over expectation, a consistent feature of Arthur Smith’s lead offences. He led the most run-heavy offence in the league last year and we have a hard time seeing Russell Wilson change that.

In Denver, he honestly operated a fairly similar offence, which essentially consisted of run-run-deep shots over and over again. The Steelers’ personnel really fits that kinda usage, which is why the Steelers picked him up this offseason and are still starting him despite the unexpected start from Fields.

He’s off the injury report, and backup Jaylen Warren has dealt with some extreme inefficiency concerts coming back from his own injury. With Patterson already ruled out, there just isn’t any real threat to his workload here.

This line is surprisingly high considering the new addition of Davante Adams to this offense. Allen Lazard has been a guy lined in the 30-35 range for most of the season so we’re not sure why this line has not been more affected by the addition of Davante Adams.

Sure, he was just added to this team and likely doesn’t have a great grasp of the playbook, but years of chemistry already built with Rodgers should be enough to get him involved early and often. Lazard has benefited from a couple of spike weeks but this suddenly becomes one of the strongest WR cores in football and we’re not sure there is enough room for Lazard.

While it’s also fun to talk about the new fun additions to the team, the new coaching staff has really emphasised the run game and getting Breece Hall involved. He’s the engine that makes this offence work, and when the Jets do have the ball it will still be a heavy dose of rushing. The Steelers’ defence is strong and this ugly pace of play should be good for unders, Lazard is the best value spot on the board.

Anyone who follows football knows the Jets have a strong defence, more specifically in their secondary, but there are enough positives in this matchup here to outweigh that. While the Justin Fields era led to a surprisingly solid team performance, the team has decided to go a different direction with Russell Wilson taking the reins at quarterback.

One immediate way that affects this bet is the fact that Fields heavily targeted his tight ends in the RedZone, with tight ends catching four of his five touchdown passes on the season. Fields was also not a quarterback that was comfortable throwing the ball deep down the field, taking away a key aspect of Pickens’ game that should be a bit more unlocked.

Another thing we have going is just how inefficient Najee Harris has been on the ground. It took him six weeks, 82 carries, and a terrible Raiders defence to finally score his first touchdown of the week last season. With a more balanced attack and the addition of a couple of throws down the field, expect Pickens to start to come on strong. Russell Wilson is a much better fit for him than Justin Fields, and we’re expecting him to lock into his favourite target, despite a bad matchup.

While Breece Hall continues to get more involved on the ground, we still love targeting him as a receiving option in this one. Even dating back to his Packers days Rodgers has always been a big fan of targeting his backs, and Hall has been a huge beneficiary of that this season. He’s over in four of six games on the season overcoming some tough matchups.

He’s recorded at least 4 targets in every game this season averaging almost 6, that’s some pretty elite usage for any running back. Even with the addition of Davante Adams, there should be enough volume for Breece Hall to continue to see heavy usage. The Steelers led by TJ Watt forced a lot of quick throws with how fast they get to the quarterback, and Hall should be there to get those checkdowns.

Both teams are going to be looking to avoid turnovers and that plays into even more short passing, which should see Hall’s tally rise.