Norway v Italy

• Norway have built up a commanding lead with two wins, while Italy are yet to play in the qualifiers due to their participation in the Nations League quarter-finals.

• Norway have won each of their last four, scoring 4+ goals in every outing.

• Italy are winless in three, although the calibre of their opponents (France, Germany x2) could be considered a mitigating factor.

• Due to injuries and a public fallout between Luciano Spalletti and Francesco Acerbi, Italy will have to choose between Federico Gatti or a debutant to start at the centre of their back-three, a pivotal role in their system.

Although it’s very early days, Norway’s six points place them in a superb position as they look to top Group I over Italy, who will be their closest competitors.

A goal difference of seven could also be of enormous significance in determining the final standings, particularly given the sizeable difference in quality between this pair and the rest of the pack.

Friday’s visitors are yet to play in the qualifiers, given their participation in the Nations League quarter-finals, which they lost 5-4 on aggregate to Germany.

Spalletti is under pressure, and some are suggesting that a loss here could mark the end of his tenure as manager of the Azzurri, as they desperately hope to avoid missing out on a third World Cup in a row.

His appointment was controversial right from the off, with many dumbfounded by the decision to appoint a manager who typically operates with a back-four, despite the vast majority of Italy’s defenders being more comfortable in a back-three.

He has since tried to adapt, but it hasn’t quite clicked for the four-time world champions. Add to that an unnecessary recent public falling out with Acerbi, which resulted in the centre-back rejecting a call-up, citing a ‘lack of respect’, and it begins to become more apparent why many think things might have boiled over.

⭐ Norway v Italy Predictions and Best Bets

Over 2.5 goals looks to have been generously priced at 1.73, despite both sides boasting impressive records. Each of Norway’s last seven have produced three or more goals, with their previous five averaging a remarkable 5.4 scored per game. The selection has also come home in seven of Italy’s last eight, only falling through against Belgium despite the game producing 3 xG.

Norway, in particular, look well placed to find the back of the net at least twice and can be backed to do so at 2.25. They’ve scored an impressive 4+ goals in each of their last four matches, scoring 18 in total. Italy have conceded at least twice in each of their most recent three, and are missing Riccardo Califiori, Acerbi, and Alessandro Buongiorno. Of the players who will be available, there may also be concerns surrounding the mentality of the Inter players following their embarrassing 5-0 loss to PSG.

🔴 Haaland & Co. Firing on All Cylinders as Norway Turn Up the Heat

As you might have gathered from the above, Norway have been flying in recent times, having strung together four wins in a row, and scoring 18 goals in the process.

Their latest victory, a 4-2 triumph over Israel, was more dominant than the scoreline suggests. Ståle Solbakken’s men generated a staggering 3.96 expected goals compared to Israel’s modest 0.61 - a disparity that underlines just how one-sided the contest really was.

Solbakken will be eager to maintain this momentum, not just to restore faith among the fanbase but to build confidence heading into a qualifying campaign of enormous significance.

For Norway, the timing of this upturn couldn’t be more crucial. After a string of near-misses and underwhelming tournament cycles, they find themselves at a pivotal juncture. 

Norway are widely judged to have underperformed on the international stage over the last few years, failing to qualify for the Euros, despite boasting a crop of very talented, young players.

They did, however, perform well during the Nations League, topping the group, which consisted of themselves alongside Austria, Slovenia, and Kazakhstan, achieving promotion to League A.

🔵 Pressure Mounts as Italy Look to End Cycle of Major-Tournament Underachievement

Italy have struggled across their last few matches, recording two losses and a draw, although you have to take into account the calibre of opposition, given that they faced France and Germany twice. Even so, performances have done little to inspire confidence.

Last time out, they secured a 3-3 draw against Germany, although that doesn’t truly reflect the flow of the game, in which they were firmly second-best.

Italy managed a respectable 1.38 expected goals from their nine attempts, but that didn't compete with the the 3.50 xG they allowed at the other end, indicative of the pressure they were under and the defensive lapses that plagued their display, including a bizarre lapse which allowed Jamal Musiala an open goal following a quickly taken corner.

Although they did manage to qualify for the competition, which represented an improvement in itself, Italy’s Euros campaign was nothing short of a disaster, managing just a single win and ultimately bowing out in disappointing fashion with a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Switzerland in the round of 16.

Having missed out on each of the last two World Cups, no team enters this qualification stage under more pressure than Italy, and first up is their toughest test of the qualifying campaign.

📊 Norway v Italy Head-to-Head Key Stats

In all honesty, there isn’t a whole lot of meaningful head-to-head form to go off here, given these sides have only met twice, and not since 2015.

They played two matches during the Euro 2016 qualifiers, with Italy winning both, en route to a quarter-final exit at the hands of Germany. Norway failed to progress beyond the qualification stage.

Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Andy's Bet Club is packed full of Expert Football Tips, such as our Team to Score Accumulator Tips. We also have an easy-to-use Bet Builder Stats tool to help you conduct your own research. Look out for the latest Gem Bets, and Club World Cup Predictions on ABC this week.

For Friday's slate, we also have a Goals Algorithm Accumulator, Win Treble, North Macedonia v Belgium Betting Predictions, and North Macedonia v Belgium Bet Builder Tips, as well as Quick Preview coverage for Scotland v Iceland and Czech Republic v Montenegro.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.