The puzzle at the bottom of the Championship is highly complex, with so many moving parts it is almost impossible to dissect. However, the best price play, at this time, is to back the Potters to be in the bottom three come the end of the season.

The best way to break this down is to go club by club and situation by situation.

Plymouth are 1.18 to finish bottom, and that seems a bit short, but at the same time, it is also the most likely scenario. After a little revival under Miron Muslic, the defeat to Derby at the weekend probably kills off any hope of escape.

This means that we are now playing for two places. Luton are heavily odds on to take one of those places, and after being overrated by the market for almost all of the season, they are probably a bit too short for relegation now. The first half display against Middlesbrough at the weekend was incredibly good, yet they didn’t capitalise. Whilst the capitalisation is obviously the most important thing, if they can play half as well as that for the remainder of the season then the Hatters are well in the battle.

Derby have won three in a row and have a comparatively easy fixture list to those around them until the end of the season, at least from a points per game perspective. With John Eustace at the helm they probably have a slight advantage there as well.

Cardiff are in 21st, and are a definite contender for the drop. They won at Blackburn on Saturday, and the good thing about the Bluebirds is that they have discovered goals in the team. The purchase of Yousef Salech could be the key to them staying up, they have scored in each of their last eight matches, and in all but one of their last 17 in the league.

Stoke are 20th at the moment. The appointment of Mark Robins is definitely seen as a positive one given his record with Coventry, but, at the same time, his only relegation battle with Coventry did see them drop into League Two, and in a similar fashion to this season it was a problem not of Robins’ making. There hasn’t been a discernible improvement in performances under Robins, and the points per game has actually been exactly 1 per game, which is a tiny decrease on what went before this season.

Their run-in is more difficult than anyone below them in terms of their opponents’ PPG, their away games at Preston, Cardiff, Leeds, and Derby on the final day look tricky. Obviously, defeats against Cardiff and Derby would be catastrophic, and that final day fixture at Pride Park looks absolutely huge. Moreover, there is very little in their performances to encourage a change in form, there are few goals in the team and nothing to point to in terms of players putting their hand up to pull them out of trouble.

And yet, Stoke are generally a bigger price than anyone including Oxford, who are already three points above Stoke, and with a win at the weekend to halt their own poor run. Oxford also have a battle hardened manager in Gary Rowett, and whilst their squad may not boast the same level of talent as Stoke’s, they have accumulated more points to this point, and they have a core of players who have been together for a while and look to be pulling in the same direction. Stoke do not give off that same vibe right now.

Just touching on Hull in 19th, they have the easiest run-in on paper, and they should pick up enough points from those around them to stay clear, especially under Ruben Selles, who is a good coach. Portsmouth have had a higher level of performance than most below them and at six points above Derby, have a decent enough cushion to stay clear of the drop.