Nigel Adkins himself probably hasn’t allowed himself to visualise the possibility of a Tranmere relegation, but thousands of Rovers fans have certainly had this potential outcome on their minds.

Currently sitting in 22nd, a relegation spot in all other divisions in the English pyramid except League Two, and with a solitary win in 2025, we think that there is a much better chance of Tranmere returning to the National League than the odds of 3.25 (30.8% implied probability) suggest.

Of course, to suggest that a team outside of the relegation places is going to be sucked in means that a team below them has to be in a position to overtake Tranmere. The market gives a chance to Carlisle, as it should do given the players employed at the club, and the appointment of Mark Hughes could yet turn things around for the Cumbrians.

However, it is Morecambe who probably have the better chance of passing Tranmere. Good reinforcements were brought in to improve in both boxes in January, the mood amongst the fanbase is very positive, with many believing that the source of their issues does not stem from Derek Adams and the players. This puts them at an advantage in their home games, which can be seen by recent results. Potentially importantly as well, Morecambe have 9 of their last 15 fixtures at home.

Tranmere also have an unfortunate double whammy at the moment. They are the team with the lowest points per game (PPG) record over their last 8 league fixtures (0.38), which is 58% below their whole season rate, and, they have the most difficult run-in of anyone below Colchester in 12th. This is worked out by averaging the PPG of Tranmere’s remaining opponents at home and away.

The mood in the fanbase is toxic, with Nigel Adkins’ famed positive mental attitude finding little favour on the Wirral right now. A statement from the owners backing Adkins recently also had incendiary retorts from those who believe that they are more interested in preparing to sell the club than what is happening on the grass. This can affect the team negatively as well.

They have actually been fairly unlucky not to win at least 1 of their 2 recent home league games, but they didn’t get that all important win, and so confidence cannot be restored.

What will be vital is that Tranmere are yet to play Accrington, just above them in the table, at home, and away. What happens in those matches could determine which of the 2 clubs go down. There is something about Accrington that has enabled them to pull out results when they have needed them, and that’s why we prefer Tranmere for the dreaded drop to non-league.