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Plymouth v Leeds Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Plymouth v Leeds Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Monday 5 February, 20243 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Plymouth v Leeds

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Kick off: Tuesday 6th February at 19:45
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Competition: FA Cup
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Watch Live: BBC One

Here at Andy's Bet Club, we're all over the FA Cup fourth round replays with the site featuring FA Cup bet builders and some FA Cup acca tips. It's not just the FA Cup though, with a variety of expert football tips & predictions from across Europe and beyond available.

To increase your punting potential this week you should check out the various free bet offers and all of the latest bookmaker accounts for 2024 with the best bet builder sites, that way you know you're getting the best value for money.

Whether it is viewed as a welcome break from the rigours of the league or a distraction from the really important goals of the campaign, there is an opportunity to go on and play at Stamford Bridge or Villa Park in the 5th Round of the FA Cup.

This may well be more of a carrot for Plymouth and their fans than for Leeds, who played at both venues for the last three seasons in a row. Also, Plymouth have managed to distance themselves from the relegation places in the Championship over the last few weeks, whereas Leeds have pulled themselves back into the automatic promotion race.

Plymouth have enjoyed a pretty good season back in the second tier after their excellent third-tier title win last season. By and large the Pilgrims have stayed clear of the relegation places, and despite losing their manager and a phalanx of successful loanees in January, they have been able to, seemingly, adequately replace those people, and continue on in a similar manner.

Leeds didn’t really need to strengthen in January, but they managed to stave off any interest in their important players and have emerged in a very strong position. The Whites are in good form in the Championship and sit just behind Southampton in 3rd, ready to capitalise on any mistakes from the Saints.

The data from the Championship and FA Cup will be used to look into the markets and assess where any value could lie.

Plymouth v Leeds Cheat Sheet

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This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

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⚽️ Match stats: Leeds very strong at both sides of the game but Plymouth will be a threat

Plymouth have very much been a Jekyll and Hyde team. At Home Park, the Pilgrims have been very strong for quite some time. Last season they amassed 61 points from 23 matches, the best in the league, this season they have been much better at home than away again, winning 27 points from 14 and building a +13 goal difference in the Championship. Leeds have their work cut out on the journey down to the South Coast in this tie. Technically, Leeds’ away record is worse than Plymouth’s home record, with Leeds able to gather 25pts in 15 away matches and a +5 goal difference. However, the Whites are arguably the best overall team in the Championship, or at least up there with Leicester. They have the 2nd best xG created total in the league and the best xG against record in the league as well. This creates a difficult situation for Plymouth, but they have qualities of their own. The Pilgrims sit in the top half of the league for xG created, but they have been able to outperform those figures by scoring ten more goals than their xG, allowing them to sit 5th in the Championship for goals scored. Obviously, Plymouth’s defensive record is poor. They are 2nd to bottom for xG against, only Rotherham United sit below them in the Championship. Indeed, despite their excellent home record, they still average conceding over a goal a game at Home Park.

Predictions:

⚽ Plymouth double chance @ 2.10

⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.45

⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.45

🎯 Shooting stats: Potentially shot heavy match with both sides looking dangerous

The prices for shots, especially for Leeds players, appear to be very short. However, there are a couple of angles that stand out for people who want to include the shot market in their bet builder. Morgan Whittaker and Ryan Hardie have really dominated Plymouth’s shot count in recent weeks. Both men average massive numbers in the Championship this season, however, Whittaker only managed one shot in the original tie and Daniel Farke will try to work to keep him under wraps. This could free up some space for Hardie. He managed three shots in the first tie and averages over 3.5 shots per 90. He could be added to a bet builder or 2 or 3 shots depending on your level of risk. Adam Randell should also be considered. The midfielder scored the equaliser in the original tie and averages over a shot per 90, but, again, has been given more freedom recently and managed two shots in the away game. For Leeds, Joel Piroe is likely to start, but he is restrictively short in this market. Indeed, all of Leeds’ attackers are short with Jaidon Anthony probably making the most appeal. The former Bournemouth man will probably start here again, and he managed five shots in the first match.

Predictions:

⚽ Ryan Hardie to have 2+ shots @ 1.20

⚽ Ryan Hardie to have 3+ shots @ 1.67

⚽ Adam Randell to have 1+ shots @ 1.25

⚽ Adam Randell to have 2+ shots @ 2.50

⚽ Jaidon Anthony to have 3+ shots @ 1.33

🛑 Fouls stats: Leeds wingers to threaten Plymouth wide defenders

Plymouth are likely to be playing a three at the back system, which means that there a couple of interesting candidates for fouls against Leeds, whose wide forwards and full backs are so dangerous. Whether it is Wilfried Gnonto, Jaidon Anthony, Dan James or Crysencio Summerville, any of those players have a fouls against record that proves that they are fouled more than once per 90 minutes at least. Mickel Miller played as left wing back in the original tie, and has the highest fouls per 90 numbers of a regular Plymouth player so is worth supporting in this market. However, Brendon Galloway is also worth backing for one foul as well. He is a much bigger price but is equally likely to be threatened on the ground by the Leeds attackers. Finally, Georginio Rutter is by far the biggest fouler of the Leeds line-up. He started the last match so is likely to line up here as well. It is fairly surprising that he hasn’t been priced up shorter here.

Predictions:

⚽ Brendan Galloway to commit 1+ foul @ 1.67

⚽ Mickel Miller to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.73

⚽ Georginio Rutter to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.91

🚩 Corner stats: High number of corners expected at Home Park

Leeds away matches average a very high corner rate, over 12 per match. The Whites actually average substantially fewer corners earned than they concede away from home, though they did win the corners battle away from home at Bristol City on Saturday. Plymouth at home usually equals corners too. Indeed, their home matches average the highest number of corners in the league at 13.21. They concede more than they earn, despite their excellent home record, which means that Leeds are the rightful favourites for the corner match bet market. However, there does look to be some wiggle room from a price perspective in the totals market.

Predictions:

⚽ Over 3.5 Plymouth corners @ 1.40

⚽ Over 5.5 Leeds corners @ 1.60 

⚽ Over 9.5 total corners @ 1.44 

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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