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Portugal v Slovenia Bet Builder Tips & Longshot

Portugal v Slovenia Bet Builder Tips & Longshot

Sunday 30 June, 20241 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Portugal v Slovenia Bet Builder Tips & Longshot

Portugal and Slovenia have taken very different routes to this round of 16 clash, with Portugal cruising through Group F with two wins from two guaranteeing their place at the top of the table, one a hard-fought, come-from-behind win against the Czech Republic, 2-1, and the second a comfortable thrashing of Turkey, 3-0.

Slovenia, meanwhile, looked to have missed their chance to progress after Luka Jovic's last-gasp equaliser for Serbia in matchday 2, but Matjaz Kek's well organised unit drew 0-0 with England in their final group stage game to confirm their knockout berth.

Below, we’ve put together a bet builder at 3/1 and a longshot at 9/1 for Monday's knockout clash between Portugal and Slovenia. We also have a Portugal v Slovenia betting preview that delves a little deeper into some shorter odds value bets for the match.

Here at Andy's Bet Club, we're all over the Euros this summer with an array of daily Euro 2024 predictions. We've got every betting angle covered, whether it be with our Euro 2024 acca tips, both teams to score predictions, or through player-specific markets like with our shots on targets predictions and foul betting tips, so make sure you check back every day to see what’s new in our football tips.

Our Euros betting offers are ideal browsing before you to make the most of the top bet builder sites.

3/1 Portugal v Slovenia Bet Builder Tip

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🩹 Vitinha to be fouled 1+ times 🔄️

📈 Odds: 1.30

The PSG midfielder has been a very busy presence for the Portuguese in the first two matches of the tournament. This is a very competitive area of their squad and Vitinha will be more than aware of that, and his performance level has to remain at its peak to remain on the pitch. That level of performance has manifested itself in the number of times that he has been fouled so far in this tournament. Vitinha was fouled a remarkable seven times in the two group matches that he played in, playing all but two minutes of regulation time in those matches as well. Indeed, Vitinha has now started eight times in total for Portugal, in all but one of those, his first start against Switzerland in the Nations League, he was fouled at least once. He is averaging 1.85 fouls won per 90 in a Portugal shirt, which goes up to 2.75 fouls won per 90 when just looking at competitive internationals. That is the highest of the likely starters for Portugal and, as a result, he should be shorter in the betting.

🛑 Vanja Drkusic to commit 1+ fouls 🔄️

📈 Odds: 1.67

This is an angle that worked well in the England v Slovenia match when Drkusic needlessly went through the back of Bukayo Saka in the inside right channel, to give away a free kick. However, the writing had been on the wall early on when Drkusic dived in on Phil Foden after a few minutes and was fortunate not to give a free kick away at that point. Drkusic was whistled for a foul in each of the group games, committing two against Serbia. He is a recent regular starter for Slovenia, and, to be fair, his performances alongside Udinese’s Jaka Bijol have been one of the positive points of Slovenia’s campaign so far, but he is definitely one for a rush of blood or a mistimed lunge as well. His first ever competitive start for the national team was the first group game against Denmark, so he has done really well in general,  and is currently going along at 1.67 fouls per 90 in competitive fixtures for Slovenia.

🟨 Over 3.5 cards

📈 Odds: 1.60

There could be an overall edge to be had from a disciplinary perspective here. Slovenia’s matches have had quite a high number of cards in them of late. There were five cautions in the England match, against an opponent that rarely attain yellow cards, there were six yellows in the Serbia match, only three against Denmark, but Slovenia have managed exactly two in every Euros match so far. Portugal’s matches have seen cautions as well. There were four against Georgia, albeit with a different starting XI, five against Turkey, and three against Czech Republic. Looking back to the friendly in March, Slovenia and Portugal shared four yellow cards, which is a potential pointer towards what could happen here.

9/1 Portugal v Slovenia Longshot

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🚀 Bernardo Silva to have 2+ shots

📈 Odds: 2.10

The Manchester City midfielder plays just as important a role for his country as he does for his club. He's always trusted in the big matches and facilitates the rest of his team-mates playing at the best of their ability. Silva is that prized asset, a consistent player that is also a big game player. His shot rate rises from 1.09 per 90 across all Portugal games to 1.25 per 90 when looking at just competitive internationals. His output in the tournament so far has seen the diminutive midfielder fire off two shots in each of the two matches that he has played. That now makes it four competitive starts in a row that Silva has produced two shots, so to be able to add this option to the longshot as an odds-against leg seems too good to turn down.

🧤 Slovenia GK to make 4+ saves

📈 Odds: 1.91

Jan Oblak  plucked Phil Foden’s free kick that was bound for the top corner out of the air as if it were a gentle drill in a warm-up. He followed that up with sound command of his area and more routine saves, such as the one from Cole Palmer in stoppage time at the end of the match. Oblak has made exactly three saves in each of his last four internationals, and although the tipped line here is four, we have already established that Group C, that Slovenia have come from, was not the most enterprising of groups when it came to attacking output. Portugal, on the other hand, are full of attacking output. They may have only managed three shots on target against Turkey, but they didn't need any more as two went in and they profited from a gift-wrapped own goal. They had eight against Czech Republic, 11 against Iceland in qualifying, and indeed all bar one of their qualifiers saw them exceed four shots on target. Three of their five World Cup finals matches in 2022 saw Portugal exceed four shots on target as well, so Oblak could be in for a busy night. He will have to be on top form if Slovenia are going to progress any deeper into the tournament.

🛑 Adam Gnezda Cerin to commit 3+ fouls

📈 Odds: 2.60

The Slovenian midfielder didn't have to make any illegal interventions against England, he and his midfield partner Timi Elsnik simply kept things tight and denied England space just in front of the defence. It helped that England showed little ambition or skill to attempt to work the ball through the centre of the pitch or find the spaces in behind Cerin and Elsnik. Portugal are unlikely to be quite so accommodating as England were in that final group game. With the likes of Bruno Fernandes (drawing 1.37 fouls per 90), Vitinha (2.75 fouls won per 90), and Joao Palhinha (1.51 fouls won per 90) in the midfield battle, there should be plenty for Cerin to deal with. Cerin is a creative player on the ball, and at set pieces, but has a high foul count as well, the highest in the Slovenia team. He has crossed the three or more fouls line twice in the tournament already, fouling five times against Denmark and four against Serbia. Indeed, the blank against England was the first game without a foul for Cerin since a qualifier against San Marino ten competitive internationals prior.
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