These two may not be competing for the title as they have in recent seasons but this remains a gargantuan clash as far as the Premier League is concerned and one both sides will be desperate to win.

It’s the type of game where you can expect strange things to happen and it makes it a potentially fruitful occasion when it comes to predicting who will give away fouls – neither side will want to lose ground against opposition so ruthless in transition.

However, I have to be a slave to the numbers and it’s that reason I’m going to back Darwin Nunez to fall foul of the referee’s whistle.

I’m not overly concerned about Nunez’s availability. He was withdrawn against Real Madrid with the tie effectively over and missed the international break with the knock that forced him off. However, Uruguay were playing meaningless friendlies in the far east and Liverpool have a fight on their hands to finish in the top four, so it makes sense that Nunez missed out if he wasn’t 100% and is due back in “early April”.

The reason I’m backing him here is because he has committed a foul in each of the five games he has played on the left of the front three for Liverpool. The player lining up as the opposition left-sided midfielder / forward for Manchester City has also committed at least one foul in each of their last five matches.

The Uruguayan is an imposing figure with a fiery side and he will be happy to take one for the team in the name of victory.

An important game for both sides for differing reasons, Arsenal looking to retain or increase their eight point gap over second-place Manchester City while Leeds United will be hoping to pull further away from the drop zone they recently exited.

It was unsurprising to see Arsenal’s opposition left-back tends to find himself being ticked off by the referee given direct opposition with England star Bukayo Saka but it’s the midfield that tends to get most involved with Arsenal as they look to penetrate sides through the lines.

The bookies are clearly onto the tenacious trio of Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Marc Roca while the naivety of youth see Crysencio Summerville low value in the foul market. Jack Harrison is available at 1.4, however, so I’m backing the ex-New York City man here.

For starters, Harrison has committed a foul in five of his last six starts as a winger and he has started in a wide position in each of Javi Gracia’s league matches in charge, enjoying a more familiar role after a spell in a central role.

The right-sided player opposing Arsenal has committed a foul in four of the last five matches while the left-sided player has committed a foul in three, so whichever side Harrison plays on, he’s going to find himself in a situation where he may need to halt and opponent for his team’s benefit and is clearly happy to do it.

Another huge fixture for Bournemouth in their bid to avoid the drop as they take on a Fulham side lacking key figures after Willian and Aleksander Mitrovic were sent off in controversial circumstances against Manchester United in the FA Cup before the international break.

The necessity for Bournemouth to attain a result here, as well as their general lack of possession (lowest in the league with 37.8%) makes me believe they are the side to look at as far as fouls are concerned with it being important they stop Fulham’s flow in transition.

Fulham tend to do their best work being patient defensively and exploding into life in wide positions, unsurprising given Antonee Robinson and Kenny Tete are the pair bombing on from full-back. The opposition wingers have committed a foul in four and five of the last five games respectively.

That statistic is unsurprising down the left-hand side. Kenny Tete has been fouled in 11 of his last 12 matches and more than once on six occasions while Bobby Reid has been fouled in seven of his last eight starts in a wide position and twice in three of his last six.

I’m therefore backing Jaidon Anthony, who started both of Bournemouth’s matches before the World Cup break. He committed one foul in both of those matches and has committed a foul in six of the nine matches he has played at least 45 minutes in since the World Cup break.

Nottingham Forest are the sixth most fouled side in the division and they come up against a Wolverhampton Wanderers side that have committed the fourth most fouls. No surprises which way round I checked the numbers here.

This is yet another key clash as far as the incredible fight for survival is concerned, Forest currently sitting in 16th on 26 points with Wolves one point and three places higher in the table but just four points clear of basement outfit Southampton.

A couple of things caught my eye here. Opposition strikers and left-backs tend to commit fouls against Forest but Jonny’s suspension opens up a discussion about who plays left-back for Wolves and Raul Jimenez is an inconsistent fouler in attack.

However, in their last three matches, opposition right-backs have committed nine fouls on Nottingham Forest players, likely to have something to do with the return of the pacey and raw Emmanuel Dennis – he has been fouled eight times in his last three matches. Andre Ayew has been fouled four times, Morgan Gibbs-White three and Renan Lodi seven in that same period.

I’m therefore backing Nelson Semedo to get himself in trouble with the referee here. It’s clear he will have his hands full. The ex-Barcelona man has committed a foul in 12 of his 13 matches since returning from the World Cup break and at least two fouls in six of those games.

On the face of it, this is a mid-table clash but both sides will know that victory could take them into ninth and firmly in the battle for sixth spot.

This game should be a goldmine for foul betting given that Aston Villa are the second most fouled side in the league and Chelsea the third and numbers for both sides have only increased with the change of managers.

With the hosts most likely to see more of the ball, I’ve looked into Chelsea’s numbers to find like other top sides, it tends to be midfielders that commit the fouls, all opposition central midfielders committing at least one foul in four of their last five matches as well as the opposing left-winger committing a foul in four of the last five and two fouls in three of those.

Douglas Luiz’ numbers are too inconsistent to back two fouls while John McGinn hasn’t started enough games under Unai Emery in midfield to build consistent numbers. However, youngster Jacob Ramsey has committed a foul in four of the five matches he has started on the left-side of midfield so I’m going to back him here.

There are plenty of players that draw fouls around him too. Reece James has been fouled six times in his last three league starts and if he doesn’t start, Ruben Loftus-Cheek has been fouled in three of his last four matches. Wesley Fofana, Chelsea’s right-sided centre-back in the three, has been fouled in his last three league matches and Enzo Fernandez has been fouled 11 times in seven league starts since joining the club.