Whilst enjoying an extended spell in Graham Potter’s midfield, James Ward-Prowse has been asked to perform a more defensive role than is natural to him. This has resulted in him committing at least on foul in nine of his last 11 appearances. He’s also made 16 tackles across those games, so he's more active off the ball than usual, something he’s not been used to.

Up against Ward-Prowse in the middle of the park will be Elliot Anderson and Morgan Gibbs-White, who draw 3.28 fouls per 90 between them. The last 15 defensive midfielders to face Forest have committed 17 fouls, and with Ward-Prowse looking awkward in this position, he’ll likely be forced into at least one offence.

A January loan signing, Michael Kayode has been starting at right back for Brentford in recent weeks and is yet to adapt to the physical nature of the Premier League, committing five fouls in his four starts. This is in line with his data from Serie A this season, where he was making 0.73 fouls per 90, so we can expect this trend to continue.

Kayode will be tasked with containing Fulham’s left-hand side combination of Alex Iwobi and Ryan Sessegnon, who draw 1.21 fouls per 90 combined. The last three opposition right backs against the Cottagers have committed four fouls, with each of them landing this bet, and in the reverse fixture, Mads Roerslev made two infringements and was booked when starting at right back for the Bees.

Known more for his attacking exploits, Jacob Murphy has only committed 0.44 fouls per 90 this season. He’s not a player who tends to get stuck in, however, last weekend he played in a more defensive wing-back role and with this game a crucial one for the Magpies' top 5 ambitions, Eddie Howe may opt for this approach again. On his last trip to the Emirates, Murphy played on the wing but still managed a foul and so he’s got previous in this fixture.

The key to this bet is in Murphy’s match-up with Gunners left-back Myles Lewis-Skelly. The youngster is one of the most fouled players in the Premier League, drawing 3.07 fouls per 90. This bet has landed for each of the last nine opposition right-sided forwards, with those players combining for a massive 17 offences, and so despite Murphy’s modest data, he’ll do well to avoid at least one foul.