Jacob Murphy is enjoying his best-ever Premier League season with 19 goal contributions. The winger has averaged 1.75 shots per 90 this season and has been especially threatening at St James’ Park, where that number jumps to 2.48. Murphy scored off the bench in the reverse fixture and will almost certainly start on Sunday given his form.

Key to this bet is that bet365’s ‘Sub On, Play On’ offer allows this bet to carry over to Murphy’s replacement should he be subbed off and in recent weeks, that replacement has been Anthony Gordon, who averages 2.27 shots per 90. Factoring in his substitute when taken off, this bet has landed in 13 of Murphy’s last 15 starts on home soil, it looks a great price to land again.

Having recently regained his place in Graham Potter’s starting lineup, Emerson Palmieri looks set to start on the left side of the Hammers' defence. The Italian isn’t renowned for his fouls, averaging just 1.06 per 90 this season, however, he has made four infringements in three appearances since his return. 

This bet is all about the potential match-up with Patrick Dorgu who has drawn 2.94 fouls per 90 since his arrival at Old Trafford. Ruben Amorim has made no secret of his desire to rest players for the Europa League final, however, with Diogo Dalot out injured, Dorgu is the most likely starter at right wing back, putting him directly up against Emerson.

Jamie Vardy needs just one goal to reach 200 for Leicester, and having announced that he will leave the club this summer, he has just three more games to reach this milestone. The former England international has taken 1.82 shots per 90 for the struggling Foxes and has had two shots in both games since his departure was revealed, he will want to reach this milestone before leaving. He also scored from one of two shots in the reverse fixture, so he will fancy his chances again against these opponents.

Forest concede the 6th most shots at home of any Premier League side, with their opponents taking 13.2 shots per game. Nuno Espirito Santo’s men are starting to feel the pressure of their top five challenge, and in their last four games as hosts have given up 61 shots, a Leicester side playing with freedom and a motivated Vardy can take advantage.