“Everton centre-back James Tarkowski has long been known as a set-piece threat and his career average of 0.6 shots per game demonstrates just that. Despite not being the tallest of defenders, he is aerially dominant and exactly the sort of focal point from set plays that David Moyes will love. Moyes’ West Ham side scored 14 goals from set pieces last season, emphasising how much he prioritises them. Last weekend against Spurs, Tarkowski had a header on target and also headed across goal for Archie Gray’s own goal and so we can expect him to be the target for first contact on any restarts.

Brighton are not the weakest side defending set pieces having conceded just 4 times from them all season, however, in 5 head-to-heads against the Seagulls, Tarkowski has managed 6 efforts at goal, only blanking once in those matches. Both Tarkowski and Michael Keane had shots at goal in the reverse fixture despite Everton having had 10 men and with Moyes in charge, our man will never be too far from the action.”

“Ipswich have been competitive in the majority of their games this season despite currently sitting in the relegation zone. They’re the most likely of the 3 promoted sides to stay up for another season and make the trip to Anfield following a 6-0 drubbing by Manchester City, a game in which they still managed to draw 4 saves from Ederson in the City net.

Ipswich drew 2 saves from Alisson in the initial meeting between these sides earlier in the season, in which Ipswich showed a lot of what makes them a decent side with high energy and commitment that just tailed off in the second half which allowed Liverpool to put a couple past the Ipswich keeper and register a comfortable 2-0 win.

Alisson is averaging 2.33 saves per game in the Premier League this season, Liverpool have a pretty solid backline but there are vulnerabilities which Ipswich can exploit on the transition, especially in the full back areas. Ipswich have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in 15 out of 22 Premier League games this season (68%).

Liam Delap is the main attacking threat but Kieran McKenna is likely to set up his side to be effective in transition, looking for Delap in the channels which should materialise into a few attacks which lead to a shot that tests Alisson.”

“This bet is all about the price as we’re getting incredible odds for a centre-back in Cameron Burgess who has averaged 0.9 shots per 90 in the Premier League this season. The giant Aussie has landed this bet in 6 of his 10 starts including having shots against Tottenham and also Man City last time out, so he won’t be phased by the opposition.

This season, 20% of Ipswich’s league goals have come from set pieces and if they’re to get anything from this trip to Anfield, you’d expect set plays to be a key part of their approach.

Runaway leaders Liverpool concede just 10.6 shots per game at home and so should be dominant in this tie. However, in the reverse fixture on opening day, the Tractor Boys created 0.28xG from set pieces.

Burgess wasn’t in the line-up that day but centre-back Jacob Greaves had 2 shots, both from set plays. With Burgess’ shot data, he has to be backed at huge odds to add another.”

“The former Leeds United man averages exactly one foul per 90 mins and is not a prolific offender. However, his matchup here looks incredibly difficult. He’s got to deal with the dual threat of both Mo Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Salah is fouled 1.2 times per 90 mins and whilst Trent is not a foul magnet, simply having to deal with the England right back all afternoon is sure to take its toll. Liverpool have other attackers and midfielders who could all cross paths with him in this game and he is likely to be overworked. The odds look too big on Davis simply to commit one or more fouls.”

“Ivan Juric has taken a liking to Chelsea loanee Lesley Ugochukwu, the central midfielder has been a lot more involved since Juric’s appointment after not featuring too heavily for former boss Russell Martin.

Ugochukwu has committed 13 fouls across his 12 Premier League appearances this season, just 5 of these have been starts taking his average to 2.00 fouls committed per 90. The Southampton midfield could really struggle in this game, Tonali, Guimarares and Joelinton have formed arguably the most balanced and effective midfield in the league, which the Saints will inevitably struggle to cope with.

Newcastle are drawing fouls at a steady rate over the last few games, they’ve won 10+ fouls in each of their last 5 Premier League games and this record is largely down to the midfield trio. Guimaraes in particular is a player that can cause the Southampton midfield real problems, the Brazilian is averaging 3.55 fouls won per 90, making him far and away the most consistently fouled player in the Premier League.”

“Ryan Christie epitomises everything Andoni Iraola wants to see from his side. His all-action approach sees him cover plenty of ground and constantly get himself entangled with the opposition which has seen him cover this line in each of his last 5 Premier League matches.

Christie has committed 37 fouls across his 21 Premier League appearances this season (2.09 per 90). This record reflects Bournemouth’s overall intense pressing strategy which has seen them commit more fouls than any other team in the Premier League this season (13.6 per game).

Christie will be up against Morgan Gibbs-White who is averaging 1.51 fouls won per 90 across his 18 Premier League appearances this season, a record which should give Christie plenty to think about in what should be a competitive game between 2 overachieveing sides.”

“With Arsenal disjointed in attack in the absence of Bukayo Saka, Havertz has become 1 of the few reliable players in the Arsenal frontline despite his tendency to squander big chances. He’s found the target in each of his last 5 Premier League matches which suggests he’s getting the service from his side even if it isn’t translating into goals.

He’s had 18 shots on target across his 19 Premier League appearances this season (0.97 per 90) which is slightly below the line required here, but with Arsenal facing up against the worst defence in the division, we can expect this average to rise.

No side has conceded more goals in the Premier League this season than Wolves (51). They conceded 7 shots on target against Chelsea last time out and 6 against Arsenal in the initial meeting between the sides on the opening weekend of the season – Havertz found the back of the net and had 5 shots during the game.”

“The best way to describe Nicolas Jackson is busy, the Chelsea forward is relentless in his pressing and off the ball runs which make up a little for his not so elite finishing ability. Jackson has committed 20 fouls across his 21 Premier League appearances this season (1.10 per 90).

Jackson committed 2 fouls in the initial meeting between the sides earlier in the season, he was often left to chase lost causes as Chelsea were still getting used to Enzo Maresca and his preferred system. Jackson can get frustrated easily, in moments where Chelsea are under pressure and he isn’t seeing much of the ball, don’t be surprised to see him bring down an opposition player out of frustration.

Chelsea are averaging 11.9 fouls committed per game in the Premier League this season, a record only bettered by 4 sides. Chelsea have also collected the second most yellow cards in the Premier League this season (64) suggesting that this Chelsea team can lack discipline which should see Jackson commit at least 1 foul here.”

“Caicedo has been having to do the job of 2 players at times in this Chelsea side, recent injuries to Enzo Fernandez and Romeo Lavia have only compounded this issue. Caicedo covers more space than anyone else in the Chelsea squad but can mistime his challenges or be forced into making tactical fouls when other members of his team are out of position.

Due to the fact that Chelsea focus on rotations and positional play, Caicedo often has to cover his teammates – especially in the fullback areas where Enzo Maresca likes his fullback to push up into the attacking line or invert. Caicedo has been shown the joint second most cautions in the Chelsea squad (5) and has been shown a yellow card in each of his last 2 appearances against Manchester City.”