QPR come into this on a terrible run of form and without a manager. The early season optimism that had build has been sucked out of the club slowly over the past two months and whoever the new manager is will want to hit the ground running because they still sit in the playoffs, which is higher than where most people had them to finish at the start of the season. However, whilst they were excellent early in the season, what will concern the fans more than the results is the performances.

Over the last six games, they have conceded at least one expected goal in each, and have only amassed over one non penalty expected goal once in that time, losing on nPxG in the other five games. They might further struggle to create chances here without Ilias Chair who has 6.5 expected assists so far this season – over three times the amount of any other player. His expected goals contributions per 90 (0.53) is only bettered by Lyndon Dykes, who has also had three penalties to boost his numbers. If pre-break form is anything to go by, then there is reason for QPR fans to be pessimistic going into this one.

Burnley look like the best team in the Championship and seem to be heading straight back up to the Premier League having been relegated last season. Following a slow start with just one win in their first five games, they have won ten of their sixteen games since, losing just once. Kompany will be delighted not only of their five-point gap over Blackburn in third, but with their performances too. In their last 11, they have scored 17.8 expected goals at an average of 1.62 expected goals per game.

Defensively they’ve been solid too, with statistics suggesting that they should concede less than a goal per game. Even more impressively, if you take out that very poor showing at Bramall Lane – where they conceded 5.05 expected goals – they average just 0.59 xGA per game – proving that they’re tough to beat, particularly with their attacking flair up top.

They should be more capable of dealing with the loss of Zaroury than QPR with Chair with Nathan Tella coming in. First games of the season can be very tough to predict and this is no different, however, given how good Burnley were, and how poor QPR were before the break, I think there is value here at over Evens.

Nathan Tella was dropped for Burnley’s derby against Blackburn before the break and he can feel hard done by that he didn’t start that game. However, here he will have a point to prove to force his way back into the side, and given that Zaroury won’t play here, this might be the perfect opportunity for him to do so. The Southampton loanee has six goals this season and has consistently high shot numbers. He has managed 34 shots so far this season and at least three in three of his last five starts. 13 of these shots have been on target and he managed one in just 20 minutes against Blackburn in their last game. He should be nailed on to play at least 70 minutes given that Morocco have progressed to the quarter-finals, and he will sense a real opportunity here to prove to Vincent Kompany what he can do.

He is likely to play on the left here with Zaroury out and will face attacking full back Ethan Laird, who is on loan from Manchester United. More and more teams in the Championship have started deploying two striker formations with no traditional wingers but QPR have faced three left wingers in their last ten and Marcelino Nunez, Grady Diangana, Brandon Thomas-Asante and Ben Jackson all managed a shot for QPR’s opponents.

Given Tella’s high shot averages, and his desperation to impress here, a shot on target at 5/6 seems very generous for the winger.

Burnley have scored the most goals this season, racking up 40 already at a rate of almost two per game. This is not a surprise with the firepower they have up top, but they have applied pressure in every one of their games. They have had at least nine shots in each of their last ten games, with 130 attempts on goal in that period. Of these, 44 have been on target, averaging 4.4 per game, including a massive eight against Blackburn and nine against Rotherham. They will be hoping to dominate possession again here which should see them able to create plenty of chances.

In QPR’s recent poor form, they have conceded a lot more shots. In their last six, they have conceded 65 shots, and in each of their last two they have conceded five shots on target, including against a poor Huddersfield side here. Burnley should be able to create much more than Huddersfield and with their front three, they should be able to manage to have four shots on target.

Ethan Laird’s shot stats may not look the best on paper with only 14 shots in 17 games, but his home record makes for much more positive reading. 13 of the 14 shots have come at home in just nine games, and he managed two shots at home to Huddersfield last time they were at the Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium. He has had 2+ shots in five of their nine home games and there will be more onus on him to attack and create here without Chair.

Burnley have only conceded shots to right backs in five of their last ten games, but most of these have been on the road and last time on their travels, George Baldock even managed a shot on target for Sheffield United. I think that there is value here again given that Laird likes to venture forward at home.