Girona are threatening to pull a Leicester City-style title miracle in La Liga this season and their return of just one defeat in 23 fixtures in the division since August makes for incredible reading.

However, that solitary loss did come at the hands of Real Madrid in September when Los Blancos’ superiority in midfield told in a 3-0 win for the visitors.

Federico Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Toni Kroos and Jude Bellingham all excelled on that occasion and the same quarter could have a big impact on proceedings in the return fixture.

Girona’s task will be made all the more difficult by the absence of key midfielder Yangel Herrera and defensive lynchpin Daley Blind, both of whom picked up suspension-triggering cautions against Real Sociedad last week.

Head Coach Michel will also serve a touchline ban this weekend after Girona’s appeal to have that decision overturned was denied, handing Real Madrid an extra advantage ahead of this weekend’s title tussle.

Real have dropped just four points from the 33 on offer at home in La Liga this season and with Girona missing some key components on the pitch and in the dugout, it makes sense to side with the hosts in the match result market.

Elsewhere, backing over 2.5 goals also appeals at the Bernabéu. Real’s fixtures there have been averaging 3.0 goals per 90 minutes, while Girona’s games have been averaging the same figure on the road.

In addition, Girona’s last visit to play a fellow title challenger (Barcelona, 4-2) in December produced six goals alongside 3.70 and 2.50 in xG for the hosts and visitors respectively. Saturday’s skirmish in Madrid could pack just as much punch.

Brilliant Brazilian Rodrygo has been Real Madrid’s most prolific player in terms of shots per game mustered (2.70) in La Liga this season and the 23-year-old clocked four more attempts in the Madrid Derby against Atletico last weekend, one of which hit the target.

In the absence of his potentially injured compatriot Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo could shoulder more responsibility in the final third again on Saturday and the attacker should be well-positioned to land at least one more shot on target against Girona.

The match-impacting influence of wonderkid Jude Bellingham should also be tough for the visitors to contain. The 20-year-old has become a talisman for Los Blancos and his 17 La Liga goal contributions (14G, 3A) are unmatched at the club.

The England starlet lodged a goal and an assist against Girona in September and Bellingham looks like excellent value to deliver a game-changing moment again in the return fixture. The former Dortmund midfielder – who hit at least one accurate effort in 11 of his last 14 appearances – also looks like an option with merit in the 1+ shots on target realm.

For Girona, leading marksman Artem Dovbyk will be tasked with providing the finishing touches to their attacking moves again. The 26-year-old, who should shake off a minor knee issue in time to feature, delivered five shots on target in his last three La Liga appearances and he could threaten again here.

La Liga fixtures don’t tend to produce an awful lot of corners in general, indeed, of the 20 teams competing in the division this season, just seven outfits have been involved in games that have averaged 10.00 or more corners per 90 minutes.

Both Real Madrid’s (9.35) and Girona’s (9.26) fixtures have dropped below that threshold and just five corners were awarded when the teams last met back in September.

Girona’s corner figures on the road are also of interest and despite a string of impressive results on their travels, the Blanquivermells have managed to win more corners than their hosts only once in their last eight attempts in La Liga.

All of the available evidence points towards a low corner count in Madrid on Saturday evening and a ceiling of 11.00 should be too lofty to hit for the teams at the Bernabéu.

If you’re searching for an option from the individual corner markets, then preference would be for Real to win under 9.0 corners at Girona’s expense. In 11 La Liga home matches to date in 2023/24, Real managed to win more than nine corners only three times.

Five cards were accumulated by both teams combined when Girona lost 3-0 to Real Madrid back in September, however, with top spot up for grabs in Saturday’s rematch, an even-keener competitive edge is anticipated.

Fifteen of the 20 outfield starters in September’s contest committed at least one foul, and we expect the tackles to fly with equal ferocity in Saturday’s crucial title showdown in Madrid.

The biggest games in La Liga routinely feature tough tackles, players feigning injury and incessant pressure on referees to brandish cards every time a foul is committed, and the match officials are likely to be busy to the point of dizziness in Madrid.

Backing over 4.5 cards to be shown over the course of proceedings at the Bernabéu looks like an avenue worth exploring, while some of the better foul market candidates include Real’s Jude Bellingham and Girona’s Ivan Martin.

Bellingham has been making headlines for his virtuoso performances in Spain, the 20-year-old doesn’t shy away from the game’s less glamorous elements and he has committed at least two fouls in eight of his last 13 appearances in La Liga.

Ivan Martin meanwhile, could return to a more withdrawn midfield role in the absence of suspended hatchet-man Yangel Herrera. Martin fouled at least one in 13 of his 22 La Liga runouts this term and he gave away two free kicks when he was last deployed as a defensive midfielder against Real Betis in late December.