In this article…
Republic of Ireland v Netherlands
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Date: 10th September
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Competition: Euro 2024 Qualifying
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Kick off: 19:45
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Watch live: Viaplay Sports 2
Sunday night’s action in the UEFA Nations League Qualifiers takes us to The Aviva Stadium, where Ireland will be hoping for a stronger performance than their away game in France this week. The Boys in Green lost 2-0, conceding six corners and five shots on target. On the other hand, the Dutch are coming off the back of a 3-0 home victory against Greece, where they dominated in all areas of the game, including corners, shots, and possession.
Currently, Ireland are fourth in the group, winning just one game in four matches. The Netherlands sit in second place, with a game in hand, having won two games from three. Only the top two teams in the group qualify for the next round, and although there are still three more games to be played after Sunday night’s clash, both teams will be seeking the three points in this game, particularly Ireland. This is because the Netherlands have, in the worst case, guaranteed themselves a spot in the play-offs based on their Nations League ranking.
This narrative makes this game particularly exciting as both a neutral spectator and a punter, as it is predicted to be a lively affair, with lots of different betting angles. This article aims to break down the key matchups and stats ahead of this game, also selecting two Ireland v Netherlands bet builders.
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Ireland’s strong home record could challenge the Dutch
When playing at the Aviva Stadium in the last calendar year, the average goals scored by Ireland rises from 0.75 to 2 per match. Not only this, but their expected goals increases from 0.72 xG to 2.19 xG, and corners taken increases from 4 to a staggering 9.2. It is clear to see that the luck of the Irish is present when the Boys in Green play at their home ground.
The last game Ireland played at home they dominated, comparatively to the Netherlands, a weak side hailing from Gibraltar. Ireland won this game 3-0, leading in corners 14-2 and shots on target 13-1. Evidently, they will have a much harder challenge on Sunday evening, but their strong home form is not something to pass up on when analysing this game for betting angles.
Ireland team news
Ireland can be expected to line up in an identical format to their midweek game against France, playing their usual 3-4-3 formation. This formation allows for both defensive solidarity, with three centre halves and midfielders Josh Cullen and Jayson Molumby encouraged to play deeper, as well as threat in attack with talented wingers Jason Knight and Chiedozie Ogbene given the freedom to attack.
The latter of the two managed three shots against France in the Parc des Princes, the most of any Ireland player, and the second-highest amount in the match, only just behind Kylian Mbappe. Ogbene is expected to start on Sunday and could create some defensive issues for the Netherlands.
Denzel led his team to victory in midweek
Earning a man-of-the-match performance against Greece during the week was none other than Denzel Dumfries, the Netherlands’ right wing back, coming up with two assists. In the only other Euro qualification game he has played this season he also assisted two goals in a 3-0 victory over Gibraltar.
Dumfries is not afraid to get stuck in either, with a career average of 1.87 fouls per match. For the Netherlands, this average rises to 2.28 fouls per match. Lots of these fouls come from bringing down his opponents on the break, preventing a counter-attack.
Netherlands team news
The only change that is expected for the Dutch to make after their midweek victory is that of Nathan Ake. Providing concern to Manchester City, Ake was substituted at half time against Greece for Stefan de Vrij (who is expected to start on Sunday).
Ake went off as a precautionary measure, but seemed concerned about his hamstring. Despite this concern, the Netherlands are expected to also play the 3-4-3 formation on Sunday.
Republic of Ireland v Netherlands Cheat Sheet
Here it is. The Ireland v Netherlands Cheat Sheet. All the previously mentioned stats can be found on the Cheat Sheet, as well as many more. Everything you could want to help pick out your bets is included.
The two levels of bet builders below have also been carefully selected from the Cheat Sheet. They have been chosen from a combination of player form, historical averages, and the perceived value of the selection. Again, should any of the levels pique your interest, take advantage of Paddy Power’s incredible signup offer by placing £10 on level 1 or 2, and you’ll see the £50 in free bet builders roll into your account.
ABC’s 4/1 Republic of Ireland v Netherlands bet builder
🎯 Cody Gakpo to have 1+ shots on target
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Odds: 1.33
Cody Gakpo has a career average of 2.5 shots per match, hitting the target 1.1 times. In his last five games for the Netherlands, he has managed a shot on target in four of these games, the only exception being against World Cup winners Argentina.
Ireland are struggling defensively recently, conceding an average of 1.4 goals this year. Their 2-0 defeat to France in the week could have worse, with France racking up 2.74 xG and dominating the ball. A weak defence could allow for Gakpo to find lots of free space on Sunday and have a shot on goal.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🎯 Chiedozie Ogbene to have 1+ shots on target
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Odds: 1.73
Chiedozie Ogbene, for those who don’t know, plays right wing for Ireland but also plays in the Premier League. He is yet to make his first starting appearance, but has come off the bench for Luton Town a few times this season. His most recent was against West Ham United, where he had two shots, and a shot on target, in just 19 minutes of play.
In the week against France, Ogbene managed three shots at goal, hitting the target once. This accumulated to 0.19 xG, the highest of any of Ireland’s players. If any one of The Boys in Green is to have some shots at goal, it will be Ogbene.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 John Egan to commit 1+ fouls
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Odds: 1.44
John Egan commits an average of 0.76 fouls per game. However, he is currently on a high fouling streak, committing a foul in each of his four Premier League games this season, whilst playing for Sheffield United. He also picked up a yellow in one of these matches.
This is only one half of the story. The reason his odds of 1.44 for a foul are so attractive is because of his opponent on Sunday evening. He will be matched up against Xavi Simons, a highly technical and agile player who will likely draw lots of fouls.
In fact, last time out for Netherlands, Simons drew four fouls. It was no coincidence that all of Greece’s left hand side were awarded a yellow card. He has drawn a foul in each of his last 20 games, with a career average of 2.1 fouls suffered.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🚩 Over 2.5 Ireland corners
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Odds: 1.33
Despite only managing two corners against France last time out, given that Ireland were playing away and against the second highest ranked team in the world, Ireland can be expected to have some Sunday. The hosts have averaged 5.45 corners awarded per game over their last 20 outings.
For just their home games over the last calendar year, this stat rises to a huge 9.2 corners. Even when playing against France at home, Ireland managed eight corners. On top of all this, Netherlands’ opponents have been averaging over four corners in every game. Ireland to have just 3 corners seems like a bargain priced at 1.33.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
ABC’s 21/1 Republic of Ireland v Netherlands bet builder
🎯 Cody Gakpo to have 1+ shots on target
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Odds: 1.33
Gakpo will be looking to make a statement in the international break as he continues to encounter fierce competition for places at club level. The versatile forward could be difficult to track for the Irish backline and defensive midfield contingent with his elite spatial awareness, and ability to pick up possession in the half-spaces, he looks a sensible bet to test the keeper.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🎯 Chiedozie Ogbene to have 1+ shots on target
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Odds: 1.73
Ogbene has earned Kenny’s trust and could step up in the absence of Evan Ferguson. The former Rotherham United man is very intelligent in and out of possession and could take advantage of a Dutch backline that has regressed in recent years.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 John Egan to commit 1+ fouls
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Odds: 1.44
Egan is the aggressor in the Republic of Ireland backline and will be fired up by the home crowd. The former Brentford man has taken on leadership responsibilities for the national team in recent seasons and will be looking to engage with the Netherlands forward line at every opportunity.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🚩 Over 3.5 Ireland corners
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Odds: 1.85
Level 2 needs Ireland to have four corners. This is something they have achieved when playing at home in every game they have played since March 2021. Even when playing top teams such as the likes Portugal, France and Belgium, over 3.5 looks a smart bet to us.
*Click the drop-down arrow to view full bet research
🛑 Lutsharel Geertruida to commit 2+ fouls
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Odds: 3.10
Lutsharel Geertruida committed two fouls in the week against Greece. He plays as a right sided centre half, and will be facing up against Jason Knight, who drew two fouls in his game played in the week. Geertruida has a career average of 0.8 fouls committed, and represents the fifth selection of our Level 2 bet builder.
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing
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