Borussia Dortmund v Copenhagen

Borussia Dortmund host Danish champions Copenhagen in their opening fixture of the 2022/23 Champions League on Tuesday evening. After an abysmal showing in last season’s group stage which resulted in finishing third and therefore a place in the Europa League knockout stages, BVB will want a statement win against the lowest ranked team in their group which includes Manchester City and Sevilla.

Copenhagen tend to start their matches in a 4-1-4-1 but if they are losing, as they did against FC Nordsjalland, expect Jess Thorup to switch to a 3-5-2 variation. Andreas Cornelius made his third Copenhagen debut in the weekend’s 1-0 win against Silkeborg following the departure of Pep Biel. Operating in attacking-midfield, Jude Bellingham and Co. will need to keep a watchful eye on Viktor Claesson, who has scored 7 goals in 10 games across all competitions this season. A hard-working attack, Gregor Kobel, Mats Hummels and Nico Schlotterbeck will also need to be wary of Cornelius, who likes to initiate a press – the forward attempted 29 challenges against Silkeborg, more than double of second-best David Vavro (12).

Sitting sixth after eight games and already six points off leaders Randers, Copenhagen have the best attack – 15 in 8 – but have conceded 13, only three teams have leaked more goals. Central-defender Vavro has played every minute and will likely be partnered with Davit Khocholava unless Nicolai Boilesen recovers from injury in time. With an attack-minded midfield leaving their defence exposed, this should work in Borussia Dortmund’s favour.

Edin Terzic’s Borussia Dortmund come into this following successive 1-0 wins against Hertha Berlin and Hoffenheim. Operating in a 4-2-3-1, Marco Reus plays behind Anthony Modeste and we’re now starting to see the duo create an understanding between one-another. Per Kicker, BVB could be without Donyell Malen. Jamie Bynoe-Gittens also injured his shoulder at the weekend, but Karim Adeyemi may return. We’re unlikely to see Terzic deviate from his preferred setup. In the absence of Adeyemi, we’ve seen Julian Brandt come in and do an excellent job. He assisted Reus’ winner against Hoffenheim last weekend and made 3 key passes, only Modeste (4) recorded more.

Borussia Dortmund (44) create no shortage of chances, only Bayern Munich (56) have created more this season. BVB tend to be clinical, scoring 8 goals from an xG of 10 and against a leaky Copenhagen defence, Modeste and Co. are in an excellent position to start their Champions League campaign with an impressive win at the Westfalenstadion.

Excluding their capitulation against Werder Bremen on MD3, Kobel, Hummels and Schlotterbeck have looked solid defensively. Paired with Bellingham’s drive, Reus’ creativity and Modeste’s finishing – he scored 20 from an xG of 18.31 for Cologne last season – Borussia Dortmund have showcased excellent mentality this season and have started well. I expect a dominating performance with a couple of goals for BVB.

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Benfica v Maccabi Haifa

After brushing past FC Midtyjlland and Dynamo Kyiv in the qualifiers stage, Benfica will kick off their UEFA Champions League campaign in what should, on paper, be their easiest fixture of their entire group stage: a home match against Israeli side Maccabi Haifa, who are playing in Europe’s elite competition for the third time after 2003 and 2010. Apart from Real Madrid (4) and Ajax (5), who have played half as many games as Benfica (9), few teams in Europe can boast Benfica’s perfect record in all competitions, with the Eagles continuing their seamless start under Roger Schmidt, albeit encountering some tough challenges as of late. 

N’Dri Philippe Koffi, an Ivorian winger who had not scored a professional goal since scoring within minutes of coming on for his professional debut in a 2-0 win for Reims against Rennes on September 12, 2021, with Koffi being loaned out to Paços de Ferreira in the January window and renewing his loan in the summer, would open the scoring for the Beavers in the 39th minute, the first time that Benfica had fell behind in a match under Schmidt,, but Benfica would nevertheless survive with a 3-2 victory. 

Benfica would once again concede the opener at home in Friday’s match with Vizela mounting a quick counter-attack as summer recruit Milutin Osmajić capitalized on a through ball and sped past Otamendi before launching a shot past Odysseas Vlachodimos and into the near post in the 20th minute, with Vizela holding off Benfica’s attempts thanks to the performances in goal from fellow new arrival Fabijan Buntić until the 76th minute when Neres finished off a piece of individual brilliance and launched a rocket into the left corner of the net. This midweek fixture could give Schmidt an opportunity to rotate with new signing Fredrik Aursnes potentially slotting into the holding midfield position for Florentino Luís and Alexander Bah and Diogo Gonçalves in contention for starting spots on the right. 

Benfica have played nine matches so far under the German manager and seven of them have seen over 2.5 goals scored, the exceptions being a 2-0 win against Dynamo Kyiv in the first leg of their qualifiers before beating them 3-0 a week later, as well as a 1-0 victory against newly promoted Casa Pia, who have not conceded a single goal in their other four fixtures. Maccabi Haifa drew 1-1 to Olympiacos in their their first qualifying match before beating them 4-0 in Greece a week later, beating Apollon Limassol 4-0 before losing 2-0 in Cyprus, and beating Crvena zvezda 3-2 and drawing 2-2 in Serbia to end a 12-year drought from Europe’s premier competition. They have since defeated M. Netanya 4-1 and Hapoel Beer-Sheva 2-1 and beaten Bnei Sakhnin 1-0 – Barak Bakhar’s side have seen over 2.5 goals scored in six of their nine fixtures this season, and they have only been held scoreless on one occasion – a 2-0 defeat to Apollon after winning the first leg 4-0.

Benfica’s defense has looked shaky over their past two matches and is reeling from the loss of Brazilian defender Morato to injury, with 18-year-old António Silva likely to partner Nicolás Otamendi in central defense, and I’m expecting there to be goals from either side, but I’m expecting Benfica to continue their perfect run and make quick work of their opponents ahead of upcoming trips to Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain. Gonçalo Ramos, David Neres, Rafa Silva and João Mário is proving a lethal attacking combination with Enzo Fernández weaving the strings, and I’m expecting that, for the eighth time in 10 matches, Benfica will come out victorious in a match with over 2.5 goals.

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RB Salzburg v AC Milan

Salzburg have spent the majority of the Bundesliga season chasing LASK, but leapfrogged the Linz outfit into top spot following a routine 2-0 victory over WSG Tirol at the weekend. Midfielder Luka Sučić, who plays a key role pulling the strings in midfield, missed that game through injury and is facing a race against time to get himself fit for the arrival of AC Milan. A raft of other players are out too, but Sučić is the only certain starter among them.

The Italians, for their part, produced a convincing performance against local rivals Inter to win the ‘Derby della Madonnina’ 3-2 and keep pace with early frontrunners Napoli – whom they trail on goal difference – at the top of Serie A. While they did not pick up any additional injuries in that game, the trio of forward Zlatan Ibrahimovic, midfielder Rade Krunic and right-back Alessandro Florenzi are all still sidelined, while Ante Rebić is doubtful.

With no previous head-to-head meetings to refer to, this match is difficult to call. While reigning Italian champions Milan will be the favourites in many people’s eyes and have one of Europe’s most in-form players in Rafael Leão, Salzburg possess home advantage and seem to be finding their feet after a below-par start to the season by their own high standards. We would instead be tempted to back both teams to score: Salzburg have found the net in eight of their past nine Champions League home games, while Milan have scored in six of their last seven outings in the competition.

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