Last time out Emmen came back from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Vitesse. They will need to put Fortuna under similar levels of pressure from the kick off on Saturday, which is what I expect will happen.

Dick Lukkien has overseen a revival in Emmen’s fortunes in the past, but another great escape looks like it may be required. The three teams that will go down, or be involved in the relegation play-off, look like they will certainly be drawn from the current bottom-four, which includes Emmen.

I expect we will see Emmen on the front foot, leaving space for the likes of Burak Yilmaz, who has found his experience and quality to be a dangerous combination for the rest of the division. Few teams have been able to nullify his hold-up play, quick feet and top finishing.

Both Teams to Score is a good price and a solid bet for my money.

Once manager Diego Corredor’s job is hanging by a thread due to poor results backed up by even worse performances. They are lacking any sort of attacking punch and the fans are getting more and more impatient as the weeks go by. The Colombian League had to release a press statement this week, condemning death threats received by Corredor and it feels like his sacking is inevitable.

Aguilas are perfectly poised to take advantage. Under a new highly rated coach, Lucas Gonzalez, they’ve probably been the stand-out team in the league this season. After battering Colombian giants Nacional and Junior on xG but only coming away with two draws, they put in an even more impressive performance in the 4-2 victory over Tolima last week. Understandably they sit top of the pile for expected points so far in the league. A breath of fresh air under Gonzalez who had previously worked in Australia and Spain, Rionegro look like they might have the squad to even challenge for their first ever Colombian title. It’s clearly too early in the season to tell. But playing in front of a hostile home crowd that will again be demanding Corredor’s head, Aguilas are a good price to hammer the final nail in Once Caldas’s under-fire coach’s coffin.

Cerro Porteño have found themselves in a self-inflicted crisis as Chiqui Arce was shockingly let go this week. The club legend had joined in 2020 and recently signed an extension until 2025 so there was little warning he would be gone after just two games. Guaraní meanwhile are still trying to find their feet under new boss Rodrigo López who has yet to win a match with the Aurinegro.

Former Newcastle player Diego Gavilán is in temporary charge, he won the league with the reserves last year and has got promoted for now.  It is hard to tell if he will make wholesale changes but it is unlikely given the Azulgrana’s great run, the victory in Encarnación last weekend ensured they have won five of their last seven in the league.

Robert Morales scored the winner, his first goal since tearing his ACL against Ecuador in the World Cup Qualifiers almost a year ago. He will likely partner Guaraní’s all-time topscorer Fernando Fernández who made the switch to Barrio Obrero in January.

Rodrigo López is an exciting manager with a clear style of play, but it took his Nacional side time to adapt last year and Guaraní are in a similar position now.  There have also been a raft of changes in personnel with Jorge Morel the latest departure (to Turkey).

Federico Santander’s goal, albeit a penalty, could see him handed a starting spot while fellow veteran Néstor Camacho has traditionally done well in games against Cerro Porteño, scoring against then 10 times in his career.

El Ciclón are rightly favourites being the home side and despite the managerial change have the better form and a stronger starting XI. But the interesting value is in the goals market based on both Guaraní and Rodrigo López’s previous record. Four of the last five matches have seen BTTS land, while Rodrigo López’s six games against Cerro Porteño as Nacional manager saw his side score an average of 2.17 goals per game.