Athletico Paranaense v Red Bull Bragantino

Athletico Paranaense take on Red-Bull Bragantino at the Arena da Baixada in the Brazilian Serie A. This is a repeat of the 2021 Copa Sudamericana final, where Athletico enjoyed a 1-0 victory at the Estadio Centenario in the Uruguayan Capital, Montevideo.

Athletico come into this game in fine form. They are unbeaten in their last ten matches and have started the season perfectly, which hadn’t been done in the previous two seasons. Their last league outing saw them take on rivals Coritiba away from home, In a tight affair, it was Coritiba who created the better chances, putting up an XG of 2.27 compared to Athletico’s 1.93, but it was the away side who enjoyed a 1-0 victory thanks to a stoppage-time penalty. The victory lifts Luiz Felipe Scolari’s men into third place.

Then in midweek, Athletico enjoyed another victory, this time seeing off Bahia 2-1, in the first leg of their Copa do Brasil last 16 tie. Athletico have drawn their last two home games and will be eager to return to winning ways in front of their fans.

A rarity in Brazilian football is a full week to prepare for a game and that is exactly what Bragantino have had this week, which will see them hoping to take advantage of any fatigue their opponents may be feeling. They are on a decent run of their own, without losing in their last four matches and will come into this game confident of earning a decent result. Last time out, they travelled to state rivals Santos and earned a point away from home. They were slightly behind on the expected goals department with an XG of 1.68 compared to Santos’ 1.97. The Red Bull club will be hoping to keep chances to a minimum in this outing.

Athletico have been relatively solid defensively in recent weeks and don’t tend to take too many risks going forward. Bragantino haven’t won away from home since beating Ceara back in April, which will give Athletico the confidence that they can extend their unbeaten run here.

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Corinthians v Santos FC

Corinthians take on Santos at the Corinthians Arena for the second time this week, in a game dubbed as the Clássico Alvinegro (the black and white duel). On Wednesday, in the Copa do Brasil, it was Vítor Pereira’s men who enjoyed a 4-0 battering of Santos. 

Corinthians come into this match under a good vein of form. They are unbeaten in their last four matches and have only lost once in 15 in all competitions. In midweek, the key to victory was a quick start. They came out of the blocks flying and raced into a three-goal lead, which Santos didn’t have an answer for. In their last league outing, they hosted Goias and enjoyed a 1-0 victory, the only negative for Corinthians was that they only managed to score one. Their XG was at 2.11 compared to Goias’ 0.32, which is the lowest a side has had against Corinthians, showing their backline is slowly improving. After 13 matches, Timão sit in second place, three points below bitter rivals Palmeiras.

After a decent start to the 2022 season, Santos have been struggling to win matches of late. They have only one win in their last nine games in all competitions. They will be desperate to improve on their recent form. Peixe’s last league outing saw them draw 2-2 with fellow Sao Paulo state side, Bragantino. They put up an XG of 1.97 compared to Bragantino’s 1.68, in a slightly even game. The heavy defeat to Corinthians in midweek, left coach Fabián Bustos speechless, “It was a shame, exactly. All. I don’t even have anything to say. It was a shame,” he said in an interview after the match.

In Brazil, a winless run of any kind and a heavy defeat puts a manager under pressure and that is exactly what Santos are going through at this moment. Bustos needs a win to help relieve some of the current negativity.

After their victory in midweek, Corinthians will feel that they have the upper hand on Santos, which will give them huge confidence coming into this game. Although it might not be the same scoreline, Pereira’s men should have enough to cause Santos more misery here.

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Flamengo v America MG

Flamengo host América Mineiro at the famous Maracanã stadium in Rio de Janeiro. Both sit level on 15 points with Flamengo just edging America in the table, on goal difference, A defeat for either side here, could see them move into the bottom four. 

After the victory against Cuiaba, Flamengo have suffered in the past week. First in the way of a 2-0 loss to Atletico Mineiro in the league, followed by another defeat to Atletico, this time 2-1 in the Copa do Brasil. In both games, the Rubro Negro enjoyed more of the ball but failed to deal with Atletico’s counter-attacks, something they must improve on here. Their XG against Galo in the league match was way down at 0.52 compared to Atletico’s 1.50, showing they need to create better chances going forward. 

Now they are back at home, they will be hoping to replicate the performance they put in, in their game in front of their fans against Cuiaba. Flamengo not only ran out 3-0 winners, but they also put up an XG of 3.03, as well as, limiting Cuiaba to an XG of 0.31. With five defeats in six, Flamengo must really pick up their form.

America Mineiro Copa do Brasil’s last 16 fixture is next week, which has given them a full week to prepare for the battle here. Their last outing, saw them suffer a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Fortaleza away from home. In truth, America offered little going forward, their XG of 0.74 was way below Fortaleza’s 2.73. It was the fourth game on the spin that America had been behind their opponent on XG, which in this period, they haven’t won a single game.

Despite their poor recent record, Flamengo still come in as heavy favourites with the bookmakers and I have to say I agree with them. The away side will look to defend deep here and try to hit Flamengo on the break, but the Rubro Negro should have too much firepower in their locker.

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Botafogo v Fluminense

When Botafogo and Fluminense lock horns, the game is dubbed as the ‘Clássico Vovô’ The Grandpa derby, because it’s the oldest derby played in Brazil. The venue for the latest edition is the Estádio Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro. 

After four defeats in a row, Botafogo have finally started to figure out how to win again. First, they saw off Sao Paulo in a tight affair, before edging a five-goal thriller with Internacional at the weekend. A controversial red card to centre-half Phillipe Sampaio saw Internacional awarded a penalty, which they took the lead from. Moments later, Inter made it 2-0 and Botafogo had a mountain to climb. However, Fogo didn’t let the fact they had a man less hinder them. Goals from Vinicius Lopes and Erison pulled things level before Hugo completed a historic comeback in stoppage time. The manner of the win will give Botafogo a huge boost in the coming weeks.

Botafogo have changed to playing with a back three in recent weeks, a change which has helped spark results in their favour, this is something they are likely to adopt again in this outing.

After three games without a win, Fluminense returned to winning ways in their last league outing with a comfortable 2-0 victory over Avai. The performance by Flu was just what they needed, with an XG of 2.17 and limiting Avai to an XG of 0.22, with a solid back line. Flu have kept two clean sheets in a row and would love to make it three here.

Since changing to a back three, Botafogo have only conceded once (with eleven men) and Fluminense have been tight at the back in recent weeks, which indicates that the match here will not have too many goals. In seven of the last nine meetings between the sides, there have been under 2.5 goals scored, which is likely to be the case in this outing. 

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