Haugesund v Viking

The first match of this Eliteserien round sees Viking travel a short distance to Haugesund in what should be a spicy Rogaland derby on the west coast of Norway. Haugesund are still inside the relegation zone, mostly because of their terrible start to the season which saw them lose five consecutive matches. Their form has improved with just 1 loss in their last 6 but a continual theme of conceding late goals has cost them points recently. They led 3-1 vs Rosenborg but could only draw, whilst they were within minutes of beating both Aalesund and Tromsø but succumbed late on to only take a 2-2 and 1-1 respectively. The big problem for Haugesund this season has been their defence which has conceded a league-high 22 goals. Their average xGA per game of 1.74 correlates with the theory that they have defended poorly. Haugesund have badly missed the presence of big centre-back Benjamin Hansen who transferred to Molde in the winter. Haugesund have at least scored 16 goals this season but overachieved their xG of 10.12. It might be hard for them to maintain that as the season progresses.

Viking looked initially like they would contend for the title this year but a run of just 1 win in their last 6 games has seriously set them back. Last weekend they suffered a shock 1-2 home loss to Sandefjord when they were a 1.20 favourite! They cannot afford results like that if they are to finish in the medal positions. The loss of key attacker Zlatko Tripic to injury has been a real blow. It is no coincidence that their poor run of form has been during his absence. Tripic is due back soon, maybe even this weekend and it will be a huge lift when he is back on the field. Striker Veton Berisha is the top scorer in the Eliteserien and has been linked with a move to Swedish champions Malmo recently. Viking have the best average xG per 90 mins (2.26). They also have the third best xGA in the league per match (1.11). Important defender Giovanni Stensness missed the last game with an injury and is doubtful again here. They looked more vulnerable at the back without him.

We must remember that this is a local derby match so the formbook can be thrown out of the window somewhat. However, the logical outcome here would suggest plenty of goals at both ends. Haugesund have big defensive problems and now come up against statistically the best attack in the league. Over 2.5 goals appears to be the best bet, a line which could be covered by Viking on their own. However, the visitors themselves have shown enough defensive vulnerability lately to suggest that Haugesund can score at least one goal. Both teams to score could also be considered as a bet, but over 2.5 is a better price and covers for a 3-0 or 4-0 result either way.

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Bodø/Glimt v Aalesund

The international break came at a good time for Bodø/Glimt. They had looked a bit tired, lagging and just needed a back-to-basics reset. They won on return to action last week 2-0 away to bottom side Kristiansund. Yes, it was only facing a team who have one point, but it was a dominant and controlled performance which could set them back in the right direction. Glimt now have a run of favourable fixtures which they must capitalise on. They are unbeaten at home this season although drawn 4 out of 5 games at Aspmyra Stadion. They have dropped too many points at this venue, but this place is usually a stronghold. Bodø/Glimt are only ranked 5th best for xG per 90 mins (1.60) but do have the second best xGA record, conceding just 1.04 per match. It was therefore a surprise that their first clean sheet of the season occurred against Kristiansund. I would expect them to build on that result though in their defence of the title.

Aalesund travel here unbeaten in four matches and they will be very pleased with how their season has gone so far. Often dubbed the ‘Norwich of Norway’ they have become a serious yo-yo team and often struggle when they reach Eliteserien level. They definitely seem better equipped this time around though and are currently in 7th place on 16 points. If they double that tally it would probably be enough to survive. Aalesund have a better squad this time around but also an experienced manager Lars Arne Nilsen who knows how to pick up points at this level. He will be disappointed by the lack of clean sheets though and Aalesund’s xGA of 1.59 per 90 mins ranks fifth worse in the league. It was concerning how they blew a 2-0 lead vs Vålerenga last week and they were eventually lucky to even obtain a 2-2 draw. 

Aalesund have only lost three games of football this season, but all of those were against the current top three in the table. When they come up against a really good side then I don’t think they have the quality to match opposition of that standard. This is going to be a difficult trip up north to the Arctic Circle and the last two times they faced Bodø/Glimt the margin of defeat was 0-7 and 1-6. This should end up as a comfortable home victory and it is a surprise Glimt can be backed outright to win at a price of 1.44. Let’s not forget this matchup is the defending Eliteserien champions vs a newly promoted team. Even if this fixture ends up closer than expected, it is difficult to envisage Glint not taking the outright victory.

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Ham Kam v Sarpsborg

It was a relief for all Ham Kam fans that they picked up just their second victory of the season last week, 2-1 away to Jerv. It has been difficult to beat Ham Kam this year and the newly-promoted side have only suffered two defeats. They have drawn 6 matches though which is quite a lot, and it was very important they got the 3 points facing a direct promoted rival. Ham Kam ranks very average in terms of xG and xGA stats this season and they look destined for a midtable finish between 8-10th should they sustain such metrics. Ideally, they would probably want to be scoring more goals, but striker Pal Alexander Kirkevold at least netted twice last week which will improve his confidence. Key attacker Kristian Eriksen has been quiet for a while, but he is still putting in some serviceable performances and is due a big game soon. Ham Kam are not leaking that many goals but have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches.

Sarpsborg head into this match in scintillating goalscoring form. Their last two matches have resulted in 5-0 and 5-1 victories. When this Sarpsborg side gets hot they can really catch fire and they have now scored five goals on three separate occasions. Ex Hammarby coach Stefan Billborn took over at the start of the season and has already made this side into one of the most exciting and entertaining teams in the Eliteserien. Sarpsborg have the second best xG in the league per 90 mins (1.84) but it has come at a cost defensively where they rank 4th worst for xGA (1.71 per game). Billborn is an attack minded manager who prioritises scoring goals over defence. Sarpsborg can be a lethal counter-attacking side and have especially looked strong away from home where they’ve won 3 out of 4 matches. Anton Saletros, Tobias Heinz and veteran striker Guillermo Molins have been leading the way for Sarpsborg with some fine performances.

Sarpsborg actually look quite a big price to win at odds of 2.40. Ham Kam are not a bad side, but Sarpsborg seem really strong at the moment. I think a better bet is taking over 2.5 goals though. As aforementioned, this Sarpsborg team is geared to be involved in high scoring matches. They have a lot of attacking potential but rarely keep clean sheets and Ham Kam have some decent attacking personnel of their own to take advantage of that. The only danger here is if Ham Kam switch to a 5-4-1 system and try to close the game down to limit the Sarpsborg counter-attacking potential. There have been at least two goals in all but one of Ham Kam’s matches this season though and this feels like the sort of contest which really should go over. Something like a 2-1 or 3-1 away win is perhaps most likely, but Ham Kam cannot be underestimated and should be able to contribute plenty themselves. 

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Vålerenga v Odd

The late Sunday evening primetime match this week in the Eliteserien sees under pressure Vålerenga face an inconsistent and hard to predict Odd side. These are not good times for Vålerenga and their manager Dag Eilev Fagermo. They are down as low as 11th place, winless in 6 league games and were very nearly knocked out of the Norwegian cup by minnows Brumunddal in midweek.  Vålerenga were a -3.5 handicap favourite for that game but required two injury time goals to prevail 4-3. Fagermo said after losing 0-4 to Rosenborg in their most recent home game that he would focus and prioritise on more defensive actions. They looked anything but secure away to Aalesund last week though and again needed late goals to rescue a 2-2 draw. Fans are not happy with performances and results. Should they fall behind in this fixture then the atmosphere at the Intility Arena is sure to get fairly hostile. Striker Vidar Kjartansson is doubtful with injury, whilst the continued absence of key right back Christian Borchgrevink has been a hindrance all season.

Odd have lost 7 out of 11 matches this season but have at least won their last two away games. They are a frustrating side to figure out and should be doing better than their results suggest. Paco Johansen’s side actually have the 4th best xG per 90 mins out of any team in the Eliteserien (1.72). According to those metrics, Odd should have scored nearly 19 goals but they have only netted 10 times. They have massively underachieved in front of goal but eventually those stats should even themselves out. The main positive is that they are creating chances. Odd do not rank too badly with their defensive stats either so you would think it is only a matter of time before they start to climb up the table. The visitors have a clean bill of health and no suspensions to worry about. 

It is a big surprise to see Vålerenga such a short priced 1.67 favourite to win this game. I feel this must be set on reputation alone because their recent form and situation is horrible. There is no way I could trust the home team right now and I could envisage a poisonous atmosphere if things go sour. Manager Dag Eilev Fagermo is close to the sack, and it would be ironic if his former club were the side to put the final nail in his coffin. I certainly think Odd are worth backing on the X2 double chance handicap at a generous price. They have lost a lot of matches this season, but two straight away wins should fill them with plenty of confidence. They are also long overdue a draw which would be perfectly fine for this bet. This is a perfect time to face Vålerenga and they can profit on the counter-attack vs a very porous looking defence which has little confidence. Odd themselves can be hard to trust and difficult to predict, but this looks a great spot for the away side to take advantage.

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