Crewe Alexandra v Wycombe Wanderers

This is an anti-Crewe Alexandra based bet, they picked up an impressive 2-1 win at Cheltenham Town last time out, however one result is not enough, they are eight points from safety sat rock bottom and have been one of, if not, the worst team in the third tier all season.

David Artell has had his hands tied behind his back to an extent, but from a betting perspective opposing them is something to take advantage of. Crewe’s 2-1 win over Cheltenham came with a hint of fortune, netting twice from just 0.36 expected goals (xG), as per Wyscout, and they are allowing an average of 2.01 xGA in their last five outings. 

Wycombe are one point off the play-offs and addressed their recent slide with a convincing 3-0 win over Cambridge United in midweek. With the likes of Anis Mehmeti, Sam Vokes, Garath McCleary, Brandon Hanlan and Sullay Kaikai available, Gareth Ainsworth’s men should have enough to exploit Crewe’s lacklustre backline.

Before last weekend, Crewe had scored just two goals in their last eight games, losing seven of them and they are staring down the barrel of relegation to League Two.

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Fleetwood Town v Ipswich Town

Things are starting to look very concerning for Fleetwood Town. Stephen Crainey’s new manager bounce is well and truly over and they have not won in eight, only posting over 1.0 xG once in that run.

Kieran McKenna has made Ipswich Town incredibly watertight at the back and they have conceded just 0.57 xGA per game over their last six matches. The Tractor Boys are unbeaten in eight of nine and chief creator Paddy Lane is a doubt for the hosts.

Overperforming in the final third and a hot streak in their finishing was keeping Fleetwood above the dotted line earlier in the campaign, now regression has hit they look every bit relegation fodder and rank second bottom for season-long xGF. 

Ipswich have kept six clean sheets in their last eight matches and with the exceptions of Kyle Edwards and Lee Evans, McKenna has the entire squad to pick from in pushing for three points at Highbury Stadium. Fleetwood will have to produce an assured defensive display to earn a foothold in the game and with no clean sheet in their last eight, that looks very unlikely. The visitors have the attacking talent to make this one comfortable.

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Lincoln v Sheffield Wednesday

Sheffield Wednesday are on fire and will be optimistic about their automatic promotion hopes, despite battling it out to climb into the top six since the early knockings of the campaign. Darren Moore’s men have won 13, drawn seven and lost four since early October, producing close to top two form to drag themselves into the promotion picture.

Lincoln City are strong on paper and have many survivors from their run to the play-off final last season, therefore in terms of a selection I am going to be a little more cautious. The Imps have lost three on the bounce, won just once in their last seven and have only scored once in their last three home games.

Wednesday have won their last three by two or more goals and have welcomed Lewis Gibson and Sylla Sow back to the squad recently. In Barry Bannan and Massimo Luongo they have two midfielders with ability way above League One level and Marvin Johnson has been back to his best in recent weeks. The Owls have netted ten goals in their last three and will arrive at Sincil Bank with a large away following.

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Portsmouth v Accrington Stanley

Portsmouth kept their play-off hopes alive with a 3-2 win over Oxford United in midweek. Portsmouth have seen both teams score in six of their last seven as they prepare to welcome John Coleman’s Accrington Stanley.

Stanley do not have a lot to play for at this stage of the season and beat Wycombe Wanderers 3-2 in their last outing. Pompey have kept just two clean sheets in their last 12 matches and the visitors will relish one of the more high profile away days on the third tier calendar.

Michael Jacobs could be in contention to feature and the attacking contingent could have some new found confidence after getting one over Oxford. In George Hirst, Marcus Harness, Aiden O’Brien and Tyler Walker there is plenty of attacking quality for Pompey to make it two home wins in a week, but that will only spur on the visitors.

Stanley denied Pompey a top six finish with a victory on the South Coast on the final day of last season, adding a little spice to the occasion. Certainly one for the neutral with the visitors finding the net in seven of their last ten.

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Rotherham United v Milton Keynes Dons

Rotherham United have been grinding out results of late, not as convincingly performance wise, but it has put them in an excellent position to bounce back to the Championship at the first time of asking. The Millers have kept eight clean sheets in their last nine but are averaging just 0.99 xGF over their last five matches, somewhat painting the picture of their gritty victories.

Milton Keynes Dons are arguably playing better than the league leaders at the moment and I considered taking them in the double chance market. However, it is hard to write off the league leaders and therefore unders looks like the more sensible play, as worked a treat in midweek.

Before last weekend, the Dons had only created 0.8 xGF on average in their previous four matches but they got the better of Bolton Wanderers very convincingly. At this stage of the season this could be a very tense affair with both sides probably content with taking a point. 2nd hosts 3rd in terms of season-long xGA ranking, as the Dons look to continue their upward trajectory under Liam Manning.

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