Boston United v Blyth Spartans (National League North) 

Boreham Wood manager Luke Garrard likes to talk about runs of one but Paul Cox appears to be taking that in the wrong context at the minute with Boston United’s last ten matches reading LDLWDWDLWL.  

Despite their inconsistent form, I’m backing them to finish victorious at the weekend. For starters, the Pilgrims have been excellent at home this season, winning nine of their 17 matches. Those nine victories have come in the 14 home matches played against sides outside of the top four and they have won all three home matches against sides in the bottom four, also winning both away matches played against the same opposition. Their only home defeat under Cox came against league leaders Gateshead and they have won three of four against bottom half opposition.  

Things could scarcely be going worse for Blyth Spartans right now and defeat last weekend saw them drop back into the bottom three. Terry Mitchell’s side have won two and lost ten of their last 12, scored more than one goal just once during that run and their defensive record has gradually got worse, conceding three or more in four of their last five matches. Their victories were admittedly against Southport and Chorley, both of whom sit in the top seven, but they have also lost four of their last six away from home.  

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Brackley Town v Gateshead (National League North)

This is the match of the weekend. A potential title decider.  

The hosts are Brackley Town, the side sitting second in the league table on 74 points. They are three points behind league leaders Gateshead with a game in hand. Brackley Town have the best home record in the division, Gateshead have the best away record. Both sides have recorded 20 points in their last eight matches, putting them top of the form table. The thing that separates them is how they are doing it. Kevin Wilkin’s Saints have conceded just 19 goals in their 33 matches while Mike Williamson’s Tynesiders have scored 77 times in their 34 matches.  

I’m backing Brackley Town and their philosophy of winning matches on tight margins to shine through here. They have conceded just seven goals at home this season and scored just 21. They have seen two or less goals scored in 11 of their 16 matches at St.James’ Park and the five matches played against fellow top seven opposition have ended 1-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 and 1-0. In fact, nine of their 11 matches against sides in the top 7 have seen less than three goals scored. Gateshead aren’t too dissimilar in this respect. Six of their ten matches away from home against sides in the top eight have finished with less than three goals scored, as have three of their five away matches against the same opposition.  

Brackley have made winning games on tight margins an art form while Gateshead will know they can’t afford to lose this one. It should make for a tight, nervy affair.

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Bradford Park Avenue v Kidderminster Harriers (National League North)

Boy did Kidderminster Harriers need that.  

A few weeks ago, Russell Penn’s side were being talked up as potential title challengers having known that victories in their games in hand would see them close the gap on Brackley Town and Gateshead. Instead, they lost four of their next six to not only slip away from the title race but also outside of the top three.  

However, three of those defeats were against the sides currently occupying positions one, two and three in the league table and their 5-0 victory against Curzon Ashton showed that Kiddy remain strong when it comes to performing against the rest of the division. They have won six, drawn three and lost one of their away matches against sides 9^th or lower in the league table and have conceded one or less goals in nine of those matches.  

Bradford Park Avenue have done brilliantly to pull themselves away from the drop zone. Home form was key to that but they have lost their last two at the Horsfall, against Curzon Ashton and Gloucester City, and their record against sides in the top nine suggests they aren’t about to burst back into form. The Yorkshire outfit have won just one of 13 matches against the top nine and have recorded just one point form six home matches against the same opposition.  

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Leamington v Darlington (National League North)  

I’m really surprised at how generous the odds are in favour of Darlington ahead of this one. 

Leamington are going to survive comfortably this season and an enormous reason for that is their home form. Paul Holleran, who passed the 600-game mark as Leamington manager recently, has seen his side win nine and draw four of their 17 matches at the New Windmill Ground, making up over 75% of their points this season. They come into this one having won four of their last five on home turf, conceding just one goal. They have also lost just one match against sides in the top ten at home.  

Darlington will come into this one feeling confident having won six of their last ten, a run that has given them a good opportunity of reaching the play-offs – they are three points behind 7^th place Southport having played one extra game. However, only four of those matches were away from home and they won just one of those – away at AFC Fylde, who sacked their manager shortly afterwards. They have won just four of their 16 away matches this season and only two of 14 against sides 5^th or lower in the table.  

There is certainly more reason to back the hosts than the visitors here.  

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Billericay Town v Chippenham Town (National League South)

A couple of weeks ago, Billericay Town looked dead and buried, consigned to relegation from the National League South. Then came a run of five unbeaten that has taken them off the foot of the table, dragging a whole host of clubs back into the battle for survival.  

Jody Brown’s side have won three of those five matches, impressively beating top half sides Hungerford Town, St.Albans City and Oxford City as well as managing draws against Welling United and in-form Havant and Waterlooville, scoring at least twice in all five matches. On-loan Charlton Athletic forward Dylan Gavin and ex-Stevenage striker Femi Akinwande have been key to their upturn in form, scoring nine goals in their last seven matches combined. The Essex outfit have won four and drawn three of 11 home matches against sides in the top 14 and have lost just two of eight matches against sides between 6^th and 14^th.  

It makes surprisingly tough reading for a Chippenham Town side who are sliding away from the play-off race after a run of one win in six. The Bluebirds have won just four of their 16 away matches this season, losing each of their last three and failing to score in any of their last five. Another key reason I’m backing the hosts here is that Chippenham have won just one of 11 matches played against the bottom six, including no wins and no goals away from home against the same opposition.  

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Braintree Town v Hampton and Richmond Borough (National League South)

The rise of Billericay Town will be leaving both Braintree Town and Hampton and Richmond Borough a little bit nervous – they are now just seven and eight points clear of the final relegation places with nine and seven games left to play.  

Braintree Town at least come into this period full of confidence. They have lost just three of their last 15 matches in the league, two of those coming against league leaders Maidstone United. Their good form has been based on a strong rearguard with The Iron keeping nine clean sheets and conceding more than one goal in just one of their last ten. They have lost just one of their last nine home matches, winning four of their last five, and have also lost just three of 16 matches played against sides 11^th or lower in the league table, including one of six at home.  

The same can’t be said for Hampton and Richmond Borough, who have won four of their last 18 matches and two of their last nine. They have also won just four of their 16 away matches this season, including none of their last eight, losing five. The reason they will likely survive is because of their record against the sides below them in the table – Gary McCann’s side have won just four of the 23 matches played against sides above them in the league table, which includes Braintree Town now, and one of 11 matches played away from home against the same opposition.  

The numbers stack up favourably in Braintree’s favour and with survival not yet achieved, their squad still be fighting away for every point.

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Dorking Wanderers v Slough Town (National League South)

Things haven’t quite happened for Dorking Wanderers recently and they are losing their grip on the title race, a run of one win in five leaving them four points behind Maidstone United at the top of the table. Luck has gone against Marc White recently, first losing the talismanic Matt Briggs to a season-ending injury before a virus ripped through the camp prior to their 2-2 draw with Hampton and Richmond Borough, a game in which top goalscorer Alfie Rutherford spent 87 minutes wearing goalie gloves.  

Slough Town remain a side that are difficult to predict. In their last eight, they have won three, drawn three and lost two, beating league leaders Maidstone United and an Ebbsfleet United side with a near-impeccable home record before drawing with lowly Bath City and seeing Braintree Town do the double over them.  

What you can usually guarantee with Slough Town is goals. Only Braintree Town, whose defensive record has been stellar in recent times, have stopped them scoring in their last ten – they have conceded in each of those matches. Since matchday four, The Rebels have scored and conceded in 24 of their 29 matches. Dorking Wanderers appear prime to match that having scored and conceded in each of their last five – The Surrey outfit have scored nine and conceded ten in those matches.  

With Slough seeing plenty of 1-1 and 2-1 score lines recently, I’m weary of over 2.5 goals but it’s highly likely that both teams find the back of the net on Saturday.

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Eastbourne Borough v Concord Rangers (National League South)  

Eastbourne Borough have broken away from the chasing pack to all but secure their spot in the play-offs with seven games left to play and they are now eyeing the all-important top three finish that brings home advantage and a bye into the play-off semi-finals.  

Danny Bloor’s side have won 13 of their last 21 matches to move into 5^th place, including each of their last five. Their home record has been a big part of that, winning eight of their last ten and five of their last six on home turf, only coming unstuck against league leaders Maidstone United at Priory Lane this calendar year. They have also won six of their seven home matches against sides in the bottom half, the only loss coming on the opening day against Hampton and Richmond Borough.  

Concord Rangers come into this game with some confidence having won two and drawn two of their last four. However, only one of those matches was played away from home – a 1-0 victory at an inconsistent St.Albans City – and it followed six without victory on the road in 2022, including five defeats. Their away record has been poor all season with three wins and nine defeats from 16 matches and they have won only one of 11 matches away from home against sides above them in the league table, losing six.  

A sixth successive victory for Eastbourne Borough appears very likely.  

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