It would be fair to say that the appointment of Danny Röhl has had a positive effect on Sheffield Wednesday. The results hasn’t exactly matched what is clear in the data, that Röhl’s team is competent, especially defensively.

This wasn’t obvious when conceding four goals in quarter of an hour against Huddersfield last time out, but at home, over a period of ten matches, the Owls have only conceded over 1.5xG once and have won the xG battle on six of the last ten occasions at Hillsborough. Margins are generally kept quite low though keeping all three results within the realms of possibility. This is suggested also by the fact that there has been 4 Wednesday wins, 3 defeats, and 3 draws in the last ten.

This is very positive though compared to Birmingham’s most recent away games. Only two xG battle wins in the last ten, only two actual wins in the last ten, with seven defeats. Blues have a -0.8xG differential per match in those last ten away games as well, which is a big chance differential to overcome in a match.

Mowbray has only overseen three league matches since his appointment in early January but he needs to stamp his authority on the team sooner rather than later to arrest the poor performances in their recent past.

The fact that the last five league matches at Hillsborough have been under 3xG also demonstrates that chances at both ends have been at a premium, though goals have still been converted in most matches. Before the 0-0 against Watford, both teams to score landed in six games in a row.

There are a couple of interesting angles for a goalscorer bet in this match.

Anthony Musaba has been one of the few Wednesday summer signings that have been successful and Röhl has trusted the forward to play a lot of minutes. He averages almost 2 shots per 90 minutes and has 6xG to his name this season, but has only 4 goals, so he is value to be scoring more regularly than he is.

From a Birmingham perspective, Jay Stansfield is the Blues’ biggest threat, and his style of play will be more suited to having Tony Mowbray as his manager over Wayne Rooney, so he could kick on in the second half of the season.

However, Alex Pritchard arrived late in the window from Sunderland, and was thrown straight into the starting XI by Mowbray. Pritchard had found some shooting form with Sunderland prior to his, rather ill-tempered, transfer, and if he is provided space in the #10 slot for Birmingham then he will be a real goal threat, especially for his price.

It is difficult to take too much notice of Birmingham’s seasonal corner statistics when they have had the season they have had. John Eustace overperformed his data, then Wayne Rooney struggled massively. Overall, Birmingham away are on the lower end of the expected total corners at less than 11 per match, and they concede more than they earn, 4 vs 6.73.

Sheffield Wednesday’s home matches are really low on the average corner numbers, less than 10 per match. They are rightful favourites for the match bet here as well when you combine Birmingham’s away record with Sheffield Wednesday’s positive home record of 5.27 vs 4.2.

Barry Bannan is performing a club captain’s role of playing as much as he can and giving everything to the cause.

He is averaging just under a foul per 90, but in a match as important as this one it is difficult to envisage Bannan not being at the heart of the match. He obviously isn’t as mobile as anyone else on the pitch, especially at 34, but he will want to pull his weight defensively and his price for just one foul looks playable.

Pol Valentin could have his hands full if he starts here too. Siriki Dembele is likely to be his direct opponent and he is by far Birmingham’s most fouled player, fouled on average over twice a game. Valentin is more usually a foul a game kind of player, but he could be up against it on Friday night.

Dembele himself is no stranger to the referee’s whistle. He averages close to 1.5 fouls per 90 and is worth sticking in a bet builder for at least one foul here.

Sheff Wed are likely to be playing a three at the back system, which means that there a couple of interesting candidates for fouls against Birmingham, whose wide forwards and full backs are so dangerous.

Whether it is Wilfried Gnonto, Jaidon Anthony, Dan James or Crysencio Summerville, any of those players have a fouls against record that proves that they are fouled more than once per 90 minutes at least.

Mickel Miller played as left wing back in the original tie, and has the highest fouls per 90 numbers of a regular Sheff Wed player so is worth supporting in this market.

However, Brendon Galloway is also worth backing for one foul as well. He is a much bigger price but is equally likely to be threatened on the ground by the Birmingham attackers.

Finally, Georginio Rutter is by far the biggest fouler of the Birmingham line-up. He started the last match so is likely to line up here as well. It is fairly surprising that he hasn’t been priced up shorter here.