ABC logo
Liverpool v Southampton 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Liverpool v Southampton 3/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Monday 22 September, 20253 min read
Avatar

Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

In this article...

Liverpool welcome Southampton in the third round of the EFL Cup on Tuesday, below are my best bets for the match.

These recommended Best Bet Builder Bookmakers are worth a look for the week's midweek EFL Cup action.

✚ Add picks to your betslip to place bets directly on Andy's Bet Club.


Liverpool v Southampton Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Liverpool v Southampton
  • EFL Cup
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 4.21

Liverpool (-1) Handicap

Southampton are still finding their feet under Will Still, who is a talented coach, but the Championship can suck the energy out of even the most enthusiastic managers. The Saints have won just one of their six Championship games this season, and that victory came on the opening weekend of the campaign against Wrexham.

Southampton fell to a 3-1 defeat on the road against Hull last time out, and their assignments away from home in general have proven problematic, with two draws and one defeat from their three away matches so far, conceding six goals across these games.

Liverpool look like they’re going to win every game they play in at the moment, even if they aren’t at their best. There will be rotation for the league champions here, but they have the quality in depth to still ensure that there is a massive gulf in class between these sides.

Liverpool ran out 3-1 winners against Southampton when the sides faced off in the Premier League back in March. Liverpool were completely dominant in the game and registered an xG of 4.12 from 28 shots, seven of which found the target. 

The Carabao Cup is far from Southampton’s main priority this season, which will also come into Will Still’s thinking when selecting his starting 11, especially with such a difficult draw in the third round of the competition.

Over 1.5 Southampton Cards

Southampton’s early-season struggles have resulted in frustration, which is showing itself through their foul and card numbers this season.

The Saints have collected 17 yellow cards across their opening six games of the Championship season (2.83 per game). Only Derby (18) have picked up more cards in the Championship this season.

Southampton have been shown 2+ cards in five of their six matches, with the exception being a home game against Stoke in which the away side were reduced to 10 men, taking out any of the intensity that Southampton would have had on that occasion.

Liverpool should control possession in this game and be able to draw fouls from Southampton, who are averaging 12.8 fouls committed per game in the early stages of the Championship season.

Rio Ngumoha to have 1+ Shots on Target

Rio Ngumoha should be trusted by Slot to start in this game, seeing as Liverpool have had quite a busy week with games against Atletico Madrid and Everton. 

Ngumoha has already had bright moments for the Reds this season from the bench, the most notable being a late-minute winner against Newcastle at St James’ Park a few weeks ago.

Ngumoha is one of the brightest talents emerging at Liverpool and has already made an impression on the first team, which has seen him in the squad for all of Liverpool’s games this season, showing how highly he is rated by Slot. He was also bright during Liverpool’s pre-season campaign, netting against Yokohama Mariners and Athletic Club.

Ngumoha is a very direct player and will look to take on his fullback at every given opportunity. Liverpool have been averaging 4.80 shots on target per game in the Premier League across the early weeks of the season, which is only a fraction of the attacking potential that Slot’s side have. 

Liverpool are expected to have seven shots on target here, going off the bookmakers’ pricing for efforts on goal, and I’d back Ngumoha to continue his impressive record in front of goal for Liverpool in the early weeks of the season.

Shea Charles to Commit 2+ Fouls

Shea Charles has committed 13 fouls across his six Championship appearances this season (2.21 per 90).

He’s an incredibly combative player in the middle of the park. Southampton actually have two of them, with Charles often playing alongside Flynn Downes, who has committed nine fouls across his four appearances for the Saints this season (2.48 per 90). 

These records would suggest that we can expect the majority of fouls to be concentrated in the middle of the park for Southampton on their trip to Anfield.

This foul rate is pretty consistent for Charles; he committed 57 fouls across his 43 appearances in the Championship last season (1.41 per 90), which is a record you’d expect to increase against a higher quality of opposition.

It’s not exactly clear who Charles will line up against with Slot set to rotate the side, but all of his potential opponents offer promise when it comes to winning fouls. Florian Wirtz stands out as the most talented player to test Charles, and he may be offered a start here, seeing as he was on the bench for the Merseyside derby.

18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.
Liverpool v Southampton Best Longshot Bets
  • Liverpool v Southampton
  • EFL Cup
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 26.54

Federico Chiesa to Score or Assist

Chiesa will almost certainly get a start here after featuring from the bench on a few occasions and, perhaps unfairly, being left out of Liverpool’s Champions League squad for the league phase of the competition, with Slot preferring Rio Ngumoha.

Chiesa has plenty of talent and can show that in a game against significantly weaker opposition. I’d expect Liverpool to score at least three goals in this game, given how poor Southampton have been on the road this season, and I think Chiesa can play an influential role in helping Liverpool to that goal tally.

Chiesa has already scored for Liverpool this season, which proved to be an important goal on the opening weekend of the season against Bournemouth. He’s only played 47 minutes in the Premier League this season, but he did show his effectiveness in the early rounds of the Carabao Cup last season with a goal and an assist across just 120 minutes in the competition last campaign. 

Flynn Downes to be Shown a Card

Downes is always a player worth watching for a card. He’s already collected two across his four appearances in the Championship for Southampton this season and could end up with a graveyard shift here in midfield for the Saints.

Downes picked up 12 yellow cards across his 25 appearances for Southampton in the Premier League last season - the joint most in the division alongside Delap and Lukic, but both of those players played more games than Downes, so the Southampton man was the most likely player to be carded in the top flight last season.

I don’t see his playstyle changing here; he’s really aggressive and is part of a Southampton side that has averaged 12.8 fouls committed per game across their opening six matches and collected 17 yellow cards across these games (2.83 per game).

Wataru Endo to be Shown a Card

I always like backing Endo for a card; he’s usually around this price point, which is generous for me. Endo is a reliable player, and you know exactly what level of performance he will produce. He should step into Liverpool’s midfield here to allow some rest and recovery for Gravenberch and Mac Allister. 

Endo was shown one yellow card across his four appearances for Liverpool in this competition last season. He committed four fouls across these games (1.22 per 90) and is probably the most likely Liverpool player to receive a caution, seeing as he will be one of the deepest players when Liverpool hold possession in Southampton's half. 

Endo played regularly for Liverpool in Klopp’s final season at the club. He received 10 yellow cards across his 20 starts in the Premier League, which shows the consistency by which Endo collects cards over a larger sample size.

18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.

New Customer offer. Place a min £10 bet on Football on odds of min 1.5 (1/2), get £50 in Free Bet Builders after the qualifying bet has been settled. Rewards valid for 90 days. SMS verification required. Only deposits via cards will qualify (Apple Pay excluded). T&Cs apply. Please Gamble Responsibly. AD

📂 Liverpool v Southampton Cheat Sheet

Generic

Live Now

Andy's Tips

Latest football and horse racing tips from Andy Robson and his team of experts.

Paddy Power

Paddy Power

Bournemouth v Fulham Bet Builder

  • Premier League
  • Friday 3rd October
  • 20:00

View selections

Join Paddy Power

18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.
Paddy Power

Paddy Power

Andy's Saturday Accumulator

View selections

Join Paddy Power

18+, Please Gamble Responsibly, Ad.

📈 Liverpool v Southampton Form & Tactics

Liverpool made it five wins from five in the Premier League with their 2-1 victory over Everton on Saturday afternoon. Gravenberch was the standout player with a goal and an assist against Liverpool’s Merseyside rivals, but the side as a whole put in their most complete performance of the season.

This did dwindle a little in the second half as Everton drew in confidence and got a goal back, but Liverpool managing to see out the game is a mark of a side that can be title challengers again this season. 

Liverpool’s wins so far this season have been dramatic; in four of their five Premier League matches, they've scored the winning goal in the 83rd minute or later, though this should be a more straightforward assignment. 

Liverpool’s most impressive player for me so far this season has been Dominik Szoboszlai. The Hungarian has shown how crucial he is to the side, even with Florian Wirtz now available in his position. Szoboszlai’s versatility has also impressed me, with the 24-year-old also filling in at right back at times this season.

Southampton have won just one of their six Championship matches so far this season. It’s been a slow start for Will Still, who has not seen his side win since the opening day of the campaign when they manufactured a late win against Wrexham.

This isn’t the end of the world for Will Still. Championship seasons can be very hectic, and the sides that impress early on aren’t always the sides that end up in the promotion battle come the end of the season. That will be Still’s focus for the campaign, with two important games against Middlesbrough and Sheffield United on the horizon.

Southampton ran out 3-0 winners in the last round of the EFL Cup against a heavily rotated Norwich side. They are massive underdogs here, and it wouldn’t surprise me if there were some changes from the Championship side with this competition ranking pretty low amongst their priorities this season.


🏁 Ref Watch

Thomas Bramall

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

20.84

3.28

0.28

0.24

Per game stats from Bramall's 25 career games.


📊 Liverpool v Southampton Stats

  • Liverpool have won all five of their Premier League matches this season, but have only kept clean sheets in two of them.

  • Liverpool have won their last eight home games against Southampton.

  • Liverpool have not lost at Anfield since their defeat on penalties against PSG in the Champions League.

  • Southampton have won just one of their six Championship matches this season, with this victory coming on the opening weekend.

  • Southampton have only managed to win two of their last 11 away matches across all competitions.

  • Southampton ran out 3-0 winners in the second round of the cup against Norwich.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as EFL Predictions for this week, on Andy's Bet Club.

We've got you covered for Tuesday's action, with Levante v Real Madrid Betting Tips and Lincoln v Chelsea Betting Tips.

If you're eyeing up an accumulator bet for Tuesday's slate, we also have an EFL Cup Acca, an EFL Trophy Acca, and a National League Acca

To elevate your punting potential, check out our xG Betting Guide and PPDA Explainer.

You can take a look at some of the best New Bookmaker Offers here if you're after some free bets. We recommend both the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and bet365 Sign Up Offer, and the SBK Sign Up Offer.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


Emoji
Written by an Andy verified content writer

18+ please gamble responsibly.