Sunderland have looked much more confident when playing in front of a home crowd this season, and their record can attest to that. The Black Cats have only picked up 17 points from 16 league matches in their travels this season, compared to 29 at the Stadium of Light.

Regis Le Bris' side have struggled to exert the same control in their away fixtures as they have at home, and that has translated to a significant uptick in bookings on the road. They are averaging 2.31 cards per game in their Premier League away matches this season, compared to just 2.06 at home.

Aston Villa rank first in the Premier League for total cards drawn this season, having also been fouled more times than any club in the division. Those two trends marry up perfectly to back Sunderland cards here.

Did you know Liverpool have failed to win any of their last 10 away matches against Everton? It surprised me when I saw that stat, but it’s a good omen for this leg of our Bet Builder. 

Everton have plenty to play for in this derby as they welcome their local rivals, who are probably as weak as they have been in the last five years. Everton have scored in four of their last five matches across all competitions, only failing to score against Arsenal in this sequence on the road. 

David Moyes’ side welcome a Liverpool side that have lost four of their last five matches across all competitions, notably conceding 2+ goals in all four of these defeats. Everton managed to get on the scoresheet when these sides clashed at Anfield earlier in the season - managing nine shots and an xG of 0.70 as they fell to a 2-1 defeat.

Everton have scored 21 goals across their 16 home games in the Premier League this season (1.31 per game), which lines up well with Liverpool’s record on the road - Arne Slot’s side have conceded 25 goals across their 16 away games in the Premier League this term, which is already as many as they conceded on the road last season, despite three away games reminding of the campaign.

Everton have plenty to play for here. They’re in a race to finish in a European spot for the first time in over five years, a win here would move them to within two points of Liverpool - and blow the race for a Champions League spot wide open.

Nottingham Forest are averaging 5.58 corners per game this season across all competitions, rising notably to 6.43 when playing at the City Ground. Interestingly, this selection has landed in all five of their home games under Vitor Pereira, including against the likes of Liverpool and Aston Villa. Forest play with a lot more confidence in front of a home crowd, and they will be desperate to secure the full three points here, given that they are only narrowly above the relegation zone. It’s a perfect matchup for them to do so as well, as Burnley have been on a really poor run of form. 

The Clarets are 19th in the Premier League standings, only three points above Wolves at the bottom, and they are conceding an average of 6.38 corners per game in the league this campaign. Scott Parker’s men have struggled to limit chances for their opponents, and Forest will hope to exploit that.

One of the most interesting trends to track this season with Manchester City is how they’ve become more aggressive. Pep Guardiola’s side have never been known as agitators, or a team that have a particularly high foul count - but that has changed a little this season:

Manchester City Average Fouls and Yellow Cards 2021-2026 

2021/22 - 8.40 fouls per game (42 yellow cards) 

2022/23 - 9.10 fouls per game (44 yellow cards)

2023/24 - 7.60 fouls per game (52 yellow cards)

2024/25 - 7.60 fouls per game (57 yellow cards) 

2025/26 - 10.1 fouls per game (57 yellow cards)*

*7 games remaining. 

This is a clear pattern that shows that Guardiola has adapted his side to match the physical intensity of the league, which is something that was missing from Manchester City last season. This is linked to the arrival of Pep Lijnders as an assistant coach, who has definitely made the side more competitive in these areas, previously working under Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool.

Manchester City have committed 10+ fouls in both of their games against Arsenal this season, and should be able to cover this foul line again here given the extra context surrounding the game, which should make it a feisty affair that sees Manchester City commit at least 10 fouls, in line with their average across the season as a whole - the highest average they’ve posted across the last five seasons.