Brighton have lost just two home games this season. Their home record isn’t amazing, as a lot of those have been draws, but I just fancy them to at least keep Forest at arms length in this one.

I don’t take much from H2H records, but it is encouraging to note that Brighton have had the better of Forest in the Premier League era, with Forest failing to win a top-flight game against Brighton.

Forest have only managed three away wins this season, and although things have improved under Vitor Pereira - they’re in that strange position of being in a relegation battle but also having one eye on Europe.

Brighton’s metrics improve drastically on home soil. Their xG rises from 1.39 to 1.60, whilst their xGA drops from 1.52 down to 1.26, showing a significantly stronger showing at The Amex, as opposed to their matches on the road.

Forest have had a couple of good away wins lately, but with the European distraction and Brighton’s home record, I’m siding with the Seagulls.

Manchester United hold all the cards in the race for a Champions League finish, with their main challengers being Chelsea and Liverpool. Manchester United are the only club of this trio that have no other duties between now and the end of the season while Liverpool and Chelsea are still both in the Champions League and FA Cup.

Manchester United have been performing really well under Michael Carrick, most recently running out 1-0 winners over Everton on the road - the exact type of game which United would have crumbled in just a few months ago. Carrick deserves a lot of credit, but there is also serious quality in the United side. They’ve probably been the most entertaining team to watch in the Premier League this term with the attacking talent they have in the side.

Manchester United come into this game having won four of their last five matches across all competitions, and have won all three of their games at Old Trafford under Carrick. They welcome a Crystal Palace side who have been struggling in recent weeks in the backdrop of Oliver Glasner coming out with some strange comments in his press conferences. 

Palace had to play during the week in the second leg of their Conference League tie against Zrinjski Mostar, and Glasner constantly complains about how thin the squad is, so I think the Eagles will struggle a little with fatigue in this clash. Manchester United also have a lot more to fight for than Palace at the moment in the Premier League, Glasner’s side will surely be judged by their performance in the Conference League between now and end of the season so United have the higher motivation coming into the game as well. 

I’m still quite surprised that we’re getting this price on Gallagher to commit 2+ fouls given his nature and record for Tottenham since he joined the club. Gallagher has committed 2+ fouls in three of his last four Premier League appearances for Tottenham, committing three fouls in one of those games.

When we look at Gallagher’s foul numbers when he was last in the Premier League with Chelsea, it paints a positive picture for him to commit at least two fouls here. Gallagher committed 83 fouls across his 37 Premier League appearances in the 23/24 season for Chelsea, working out to an average of 1.84 fouls won per 90.

Gallagher looks like he’s going to be utilised higher up the pitch by Igor Tudor, which is where I think he is at his most effective. It should also increase the chances of Gallagher coming away with at least two fouls here, as that foul average he posted in the 23/24 season was mainly from him playing ahead of two holding midfielders.

There is excellent value with this angle when backing with bet365, the exact same selection is priced as low as 1.40 with other major bookmakers.

Have we finally seen a corner turned by the big Swede? Perhaps that’s harsh, given that he has already netted 15 times for the Gunners, but it’s safe to say he hasn’t wowed us since his arrival from Sporting Lisbon.

It looked like his team-mates finally figured out how to get the best out of him. Get him into the left-hand channel, and isolate him against defenders because he can be truly destructive in those areas.

Gyokeres netted twice against Spurs, having four shots in total. His season average sits at 2.13 per 90, but this is him now playing with confidence. 

This has landed in over half his games when he’s played 65 minutes or more, and was also on target in the EFL Cup against Chelsea recently.

The bet being covered by Super Sub could be very advantageous, too. His likely replacement would be Gabriel Jesus, who has averaged 4.03 shots per 90, the most in the Arsenal squad.