It may seem a bit odd to back a side to win after they’ve just lost 7-2 in a midweek game, but I do buy into the belief that derbies exist outside of form lines - and Newcastle have plenty to atone for after losing the initial league meeting in a pretty limp fashion.

Home advantage should be massive for Newcastle here, not only in the context of the derby but also because Sunderland have struggled on the road all season. Regis Le Bris’ side have only managed to win three of their 15 away matches in the Premier League this term, notably only scoring eight goals across these games - only Wolves (7) have scored fewer goals on the road than Sunderland this season.

Newcastle have been far from their best this season but have still managed to win eight of their 15 games at St James’ Park, and will want to bounce back following their bruising defeat in the Champions League and poor display against Sunderland in the initial meeting between the sides, which attracted quite a bit of criticism.

Robin Roefs has been one of the signings of the season in the Premier League this term, but will be unavailable for Sunderland here, which means that Melker Ellborg should step into the frame - and he’s likely to be just as busy as Roefs was in the Sunderland goal.

Ellborg has been forced into making seven saves across his two Premier League appearances since Roefs picked up his injury (3.50 saves per 90). He was tested three times by Brighton last time out, and four times by Leeds - suggesting that Sunderland's backline is not going to offer Ellborg much protection in this clash. 

Newcastle were really poor in the initial league meeting between the sides, but still managed to draw two saves from Roefs. Sunderland have been really organised at the back at times this season, but Newcastle can still force Ellborg into saves with efforts from distance if Sunderland do effectively manage to limit the space in and around their box.

Roefs has been forced into making 85 saves across his 28 starts in the Premier League this season (3.04 per 90), suggesting that the Sunderland goalkeeper is regularly tested to this degree by opposition sides.

Enzo Le Fee is a doubt for this game, which is a massive blow for Sunderland, which should mean that we see Habib Diarra continue in his slightly more advanced role behind Xhaka and Sadiki.

I was very impressed with this trio in the early stages of the season, they had a really good balance but an injury to Diarra disrupted their development. Diarra is fit again now and can be a shot threat for Sunderland, operating in the role that Le Fee was so effective in for the Black Cats.

Diarra has taken 16 shots across his 11 starts in the Premier League this season, working out to an average of 1.42 shots per 90. He’s scored two goals from this tally, and has the required physicality and stamina to engage in a battle with Newcastle’s intense midfield set up.

Anthony Gordon had one chance fall his way at the Camp Nou during the week, and should have done a bit better with his effort as it deflected wide of the goal. Gordon played up front in that game, and could start in that forward role again here with Newcastle still not getting much out of Woltemade and Wissa as their main two strikers.

Gordon has taken 44 shots across his 22 starts in the Premier League this season (2.39 per 90), seeing 19 of these efforts find the target (1.03 per 90). This has resulted in Gordon scoring five goals in the Premier League, and 16 goals across all competitions, with Gordon being particularly effective in the Champions League.

Gordon’s shot output in the Champions League is just as compelling for this angle, with Gordon taking 26 shots across his nine starts (3.04 per 90), seeing 14 of these efforts find the target (1.64 per 90) - resulting in Gordon having a haul of 10 goals in the Champions League from an xG of 8.53.

The witch hunt of Premier League players seems never ending, and Nick Woltemade has been the latest target of the media and wider Premier League world. As always, the criticism that he has received is harsh and doesn’t take into account that this is his first season in the Premier League.

Woltemade started the season well, but has since struggled for form. The struggles he’s faced this season are similar to those of Florian Wirtz, who has also received pelters as he tries to adapt to Premier League football. Woltemade headed into his own net when these sides met earlier in the season, so he has the extra motivation of getting some revenge here.

He has registered nine goal contributions across his 20 starts in the Premier League, which isn’t a bad return for a player that is new to the league - though his price tag doesn’t afford him the patience he may have gotten if he was a bit cheaper. Howe has dropped him back into a midfield role of late, though I do think his height could play a big part here if Sunderland are going to defend quite deep - inviting crosses from Newcastle.

Some of the card prices here are a bit ridiculous, with some players being under evens to pick up a caution. I’d expect cards here due to the nature of the game, but don’t expect to find masses of value in the card markets for this clash, as the lines have been adjusted accordingly.

That being said, Omar Alderete looks like a decent option for a card at this price. The Sunderland centre back has impressed me this season, though has let his aggression show a bit too much at times, with five yellow cards across his 25 starts in the Premier League. He’s a very passionate player, so I think he’ll buy into the chaotic nature of this derby.

Only Trai Hume (7) and Sadiki (6) have picked up more yellow cards for Sunderland than Alderete this season of the players fit and available for this clash. His main opponent here is likely to be Anthony Gordon, who can cause Alderete problems with his speed and willingness to run in behind. Gordon is averaging 2.01 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season, and those runs in behind he makes are ideal to draw a card from Alderete.

Newcastle’s usual midfield trio of Tonali, Joelinton and Guimaraes is fractured at the moment, with Guimaraes confirmed to be out while Tonali and Joelinton are fit - but don’t look to be 100% based on their displays in the Champions League during the week.

Newcastle’s 1-0 win over Chelsea last weekend was the first time in Eddie Howe’s tenure at Newcastle that he hasn’t started with at least one of Guimaraes, Joelinton or Tonali.

With all three of these players being doubts for this game as well, we should see Jacob Ramsey continue in midfield, as he has played the full 90 minutes in each of Newcastle’s last three matches. Ramsey has collected three yellow cards and one red card across his 10 starts in the Premier League this season, and should be given instructions to be just as tenacious as Newcastle’s usual midfield trio.