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Sunderland v Newcastle Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Sunderland v Newcastle Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Friday 5 January, 20243 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Sunderland v Newcastle

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Kick Off: Saturday 6th January at 12:45
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Competition: FA Cup
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Watch Live: ITV1

The first staging of the Tyne-Wear derby since Sunderland's relegation from the Premier League is the pick of Saturday's FA Cup games. As ever we have a range of FA Cup bet builders, but not only that, we also focus on football away from these shores where we have a variety of expert football tips & predictions from across Europe and beyond.

If you like what you see and want to get involved, check out the various free bet offers and all of the best bookmaker offers so you can be sure you're getting the best value for money.

Supporters of Sunderland and Newcastle are very much used to seeing each other around. The area of South Tyneside is heavily populated with a mixture of Geordie and Mackem followers who are all very passionate about their teams, and workplaces are often abuzz with the football news, especially of news surrounding the two big North East clubs.

However, one place in which the fans have not seen each other in recent times is in the football stadium itself. This has been the longest gap between Tyne/Wear derbies the Second World War, there hadn’t been a gap of longer than five years until Sunderland suffered relegation from the Premier League in 2016 and haven’t returned since.

One can only imagine the excitement of the fans when Newcastle United came out of the metaphorical hat to play at the Stadium of Light in this FA Cup Third Round. There has been 6000 tickets allocated in the Wearside ground to the Newcastle fans, around 12% of capacity, which should guarantee a great atmosphere, as well as a heavy police presence.

On the pitch, Eddie Howe’s men need a lift after a very tricky period. Howe has done an incredible job as Newcastle manager, but he is under pressure from some quarters given Newcastle’s recent form. Michael Beale is the new man in the Sunderland dugout but the Black Cats have had a solid season so far, sitting in 6th place in the Championship table at the moment.

There are lots of aspects to consider when putting a bet builder together for this match. The difference between the two leagues is a major consideration, as is the potential rotation that may occur, but there is a real excitement to this tie and that plays into the bet builder selections as well.

Sunderland v Newcastle Cheat Sheet

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This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

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⚽ Match stats: Newcastle playing a game of Jekyll & Hyde at home vs away

With Newcastle having to divide their time between the Premier League, Champions League, and League Cup, there has been a definite inconsistency to their season. This does not, however, excuse the definite gap between their production at St. James’ Park compared to on their travels. Of their 29 Premier League points, only five were won on the road. Their only win was the 8-0 mauling of Sheffield United, which really does mask over some other failings. Eddie Howe’s men have scored only another eight in the other nine away matches, and conceded 22 in that time. Overall, Newcastle sit in the top half of the Premier League for most attacking metrics, including xG creation, shots on target and big chances created, and missed. The Geordies are also bottom half for aspects such as xG conceded, so there will be openings for Sunderland to exploit if they have the mindset and quality to take advantage. Sunderland actually have the best xG ratio in the Championship based on the Opta data. They create 1.6xG per match but only concede 1.08, which sneaks them ahead of the likes of Leeds, Leicester and Southampton in the difference between creation and prevention of chances. Their recent home matches have shown a level of dominance which is very impressive in such a competitive league. In their six previous home matches before the weekend Sunderland had won the xG battle by clear margins in each of them, an early goal against Preston last time meant that the game state was different but a comfortable 2-0 victory was achieved. Certainly, Newcastle cannot expect an easy game, despite playing a Championship side that finished way below the Sheffield United team that the Magpies battered 8-0 earlier in the season.

🎯 Shooting stats: Jack Clarke is the key to Sunderland’s great attacking threat

Sunderland lead the Championship in the number of shots that they have taken with 401 this season, that is an average of 16 per match. Much of the forward impetus is carried by Jack Clarke from a starting position on the left of the attack. Clarke leads the Championship in a myriad of metrics, but the most pertinent to the markets are his shot creating actions, and his propensity to get shots off himself. Clarke averages around three shots per 90 and is the most heavily used member of Sunderland’s attacking lineup. In terms of potential value in the markets though, Dan Ballard is a clear standout. In a game in which Sunderland perhaps wouldn’t expect to create as much in open play, they should look to their set pieces more and Ballard is the number one target in the box for the Black Cats. He is averaging just over a shot a game, and has taken a shot in seven of his last ten. In that time he took three shots in a game twice, against Plymouth and Bristol City, that is priced at 12/1 here. Newcastle have threats from many areas. Anthony Gordon has been a constant shot threat this season, and Alexander Isak and Miguel Almiron, the first choice front three are also up there, all taking over two shots a match on average. Whoever starts in the wide forward positions for Newcastle, as long as they are inverted, i.e. playing with their stronger foot on the inside, should be worth looking at in the shot markets.

Predictions:

⚽ Sunderland to have 4+ shots on target @ 1.87

⚽ Daniel Ballard to have 1+ shot @ 2.0

⚽ Jack Clarke to have 2+ shots @ 1.30

⚽ Anthony Gordon to have 2+ shots @ 1.30

🛑 Fouls stats: Derby day tensions to be expressed on the field

The highly charged atmosphere is bound to produce some fireworks, either in the stands or on the pitch. As bettors we have to be careful of not going too hard at the fouls, but we can use the data to guide us in the right direction. Craig Pawson is the man in the middle for this fixture and is a highly experienced referee who has had UEFA fixtures this season. He gives around 22 fouls per match on average in the Premier League, which rises to nearer 23 when including all competitions. The history of the Tyne/Wear derby suggests that there has been an average of 24.4 fouls per match, with the home side historically giving away more fouls than the away side. However, Sunderland are the fourth-least fouling side in the Championship and Newcastle are only fourth in fouls too. Where it does get interesting, however, is that both sides are heavily fouled themselves and in the market addition of player to be fouled, there are a couple of good bets. Jack Clarke has been mentioned a lot here, but he is a dominant force on the ball and carries it way more than anyone else in the Championship. He will need to be shut down and is an obvious candidate to be fouled here, as has happened 60 times in 25 matches in the Championship. Bruno Guimaraes is Newcastle’s most fouled player by a distance. Matching this up with likely foulers means that Pierre Ekwah and Dan Neil are worth looking at in the fouls market too.

Predictions:

⚽ Bruno Guimaraes to win 3+ fouls @ 1.91

⚽ Jack Clarke to win 2+ fouls @ 1.36

⚽ Pierre Ekwah to commit 1+ foul @ 1.40

⚽ Daniel Neil to commit 1+ foul @ 1.44

🟨 Cards stats: Sunderland amongst worst discipline offenders in the Championship 

Craig Pawson averages 4.6 yellow cards in all competitions, and historically the Tyne/Wear derby produces 5.1 yellow per match. There have also been five red cards in the last 10 derbies. With these derbies all taking place over eight years ago though, there is a pinch of salt to be taken with card stats given the changes in laws and application of them since 2016. Trai Hume is probably the best value to be carded for Sunderland. The young Northern Ireland international has been booked six times already this season and is almost certain to play the 90 minutes up against Premier League quality wingers. Newcastle’s right-back is worth a pick for a card too up against Clarke. It could be a couple of players, Kieran Trippier has five cards already this season and is available for a nice price of 4.0. If team news has Tino Livramento in that position then he is also worth a look, sitting at 4.2.

Predictions:

⚽ Trai Hume to be shown a card @ 3.1

⚽ Kieran Trippier to be shown a card @ 4.0

⚽ Over 4.5 total cards @ 1.36

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