In this article…
Swansea v Cardiff
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Kick Off: Saturday 14th March at 12:30
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Competition: Championship
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
Saturday’s EFL football gets underway with a huge derby clash in South Wales as Swansea host Cardiff. It’s not just this game we’re focusing on though, with our football coverage this weekend also including EFL betting predictions and EFL accumulator tips. As ever on Andy’s Bet Club we also have a huge range of football tips and expert betting predictions from outside the EFL to help you bag a winner.
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Another early kick-off for a local derby and the South Wales derby is usually one that has a fair bit of heat to it.
It had become a match that Cardiff fans were dreading. Swansea carried a great record in the derby into the first derby of the season in September, but Erol Bulut’s first derby as Cardiff manager was a 2-0 win with a cracking goal from Ollie Tanner breaking the deadlock.
Indeed, as Bulut prepares for his second derby, he will be facing a different opponent in the opposite dugout. Michael Duff’s media quotes around the South Wales derby were one of the bones of contention that the Swans fans had with the former Barnsley manager, and when results didn’t really click into gear, Duff was replaced with Luke Williams.
Williams has been known for his fairly extreme possession style, he achieved great success with that at Notts County, and with Swansea also having previously had success with a heavy possession brand of football, it was thought that Williams would go in and instantly deliver that. However, that has not been the case, and Swansea have picked up results that have been good enough to keep the relegation places at arm’s length, but without being truly convincing at the same time.
It wasn’t long ago that Cardiff fans were beginning to get a bit twitchy about being dragged into the fight at the wrong end of the league. Four consecutive league wins though have pulled the Bluebirds back into the top half and dreaming of a late play-off surge.
Whilst bearing in mind that this is a derby game, deserving special thought and attention, it still serves to look into the data, create a cheat sheet, and see what trends emerge that might be able to steer us in the direction of a winning bet builder.
Swansea v Cardiff Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
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You can find Swansea v Cardiff match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
🏆 Match stats: Both clubs outperforming their data at this stage of the season
Cardiff’s play-off charge came quite out of the blue. Bulut’s side went through a long tough streak mid-season, which is illustrated in their data.
Cardiff are ranked only 21st for xG in the league, Swansea, by contrast are 13th in this measure. The Swans have created over 10 xG more than Cardiff over the course of the league season so far.
Cardiff are also outperforming their defensive metrics, joint-10th alongside Ipswich in goals conceded, but 20th in xG against. However, their 53.1 xG conceded is six better than Swansea’s xG against.
So the data suggests that both defences can concede chances, but there has been problems for both sides in putting those chances away.
Cardiff have, of course, won four in a row, and there is much to be said for that level of belief that will now be coursing through the squad. Indeed, the performance against Ipswich was worthy of the late comeback that they achieved.
It is a difficult match to decipher, there hasn’t been a draw in the derby in seven matches, and only one in 15. There has also been only one meeting in 13 in which BTTS has clickedas well, so the trends are there to be seen.
However, Swansea seem a little short at the prices, despite their actual edge in data terms, and it could be worth taking Cardiff with the draw onside as well.
Predictions:
⚽ Cardiff double chance @ 1.73
🎯 Shooting stats: Defenders as big a threat as forwards in the South Wales derby
As we have seen in the data, neither team is fluent going forwards. Indeed, it is a point of interest in the data, that none of the forwards that represent the two teams have an xG over the whole season of over 8.4, which is Jerry Yates’ total.
Part of this will be to do with rotation, but it goes some way to explaining why neither side has a goalscorer over 10 goals this season, it would take a significant overachievement to reach that milestone at this stage given the chances that they have created.
In terms of bet builder selections for this market, defenders are well worthy of consideration. Indeed, Swansea’s most regular shot on target lander is Harry Darling, the central defender by trade. Despite his short price, the data tells us that he is the most likely to have a shot on target for Swansea, in a game that could be cagey.
On the other side, Perry Ng is Cardiff’s top scorer, and though he is also a defender, and doesn’t have the most regular shots on target numbers in the squad, he remains a big price to attain one in this match.
Rubin Colwill is another decent price that should be considered. The youngster shoots more than any Cardiff player, but he has been taking poor shots. However, he is improving his decision making and if he can keep up the volume, his price looks appealing.
Before placing any bets in this market though, bear in mind that there is a chance that neither Harry Darling or Rubin Colwill will start here. If you fancy backing either of them here, we strongly advise waiting until the teams are announced to place any bets.
Predictions:
⚽ Harry Darling to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.53
⚽ Perry Ng to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.80
⚽ Rubin Colwill to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.0
🛑 Fouls stats: Forwards to throw their weight around at the top of the pitch
The history of fouls in this fixture is slightly up and down, in September there were 24 given. Last season there was a vast difference between the first match with only 15, the lowest in the last three seasons, and 30, the highest in the last three seasons.
Overall, the average over the last three seasons is 23.2.
Yakou Meite has been mentioned already as a possible yellow card candidate, but if you prefer a shorter price for the bet builder then 2+ fouls could be a better bet.
Meite averages over two fouls per 90 and will no doubt be told to assert himself over the Swansea backline if he gets the start in this match.
The Swansea angle is a much bigger price, but Liam Cullen is also guilty of committing more than one foul per 90 and he is a very keen presser of the ball. Also, being a lad who has come through at Swansea, there is that ‘local’ element to it for him as well.
Predictions:
⚽ Yakou Meite to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.73
⚽ Yakou Meite to commit 3+ fouls @ 3.10
⚽ Liam Cullen to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.57
⚽ Liam Cullen to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.62
🟨 Cards stats: Potential for things to boil over
The card line is unusually sensible from the bookmakers in this derby.
The referee for the match is David Webb, in 25 Championship fixtures this season he has distributed 101 yellow cards, which is almost bang on 4 per match. There were only two in the September fixture, but the three before that saw 7, 7, and 6 given out respectfully.
The over 4.5 card line could be attacked here, with three of the last four derbies and five of the last eight going this way.
In terms of individual cards, the yellow card ban amnesty has just passed for both clubs, so that could help. Jay Fulton is the Swansea player with the most fouls to his name so far this season, so he looks a good price.
Yakou Meite and Joe Ralls have been under-carded so far this season for the number of fouls that they make and they are good value to be names in the book here.
Predictions:
⚽ Over 4.5 total cards @ 2.0
⚽ Jay Fulton to be shown a card @ 3.60
⚽ Yakou Meite to be shown a card @ 3.75
⚽ Joe Ralls to be shown a card @ 2.87
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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