FK Liepaja v Young Boys

While many would assume that losing their grip on the league title after four years would be the most chastening fallout from last season for YB, that may not actually be true. After qualifying for the Group Stage of the UEFA Europa League and UEFA Champions League twice each in those last four seasons, rubbing shoulders with Atalanta, Villarreal, and beating Manchester United, YB begin their first-ever UEFA Europa Conference League campaign in the western Latvian city of Liepaja on Thursday.

Before their trip to what is known as the windiest city in Latvia, YB began the new Credit Suisse Super League campaign with a bang as they ran out 4-0 winners over reigning champions FC Zurich. It wasn’t plain sailing for the Bernese club on Saturday, they took some time to click into gear, surviving a penalty scare before eventually blowing FCZ away in the second half. With several new signings, including cameo goalscorer Cedric Itten, YB looked like a side ready to take back their title.

On paper, their opposition on Thursday are relative newcomers to this level and to football in general. FK Liepaja were founded only eight years ago and have competed in European competition in only six seasons. That being said, they are classed as a “phoenix” club and successor to the club they replaced in the Latvian top-flight in 2014, Liepaja Metalurgs. In any case, this is a welcome draw for Raphael Wicky’s YB: a short journey and what should be a relatively easy progression to the next round.

Liepaja never really pull up any trees in Europe. They have won just three qualification matches, the most notable against Dinamo Minsk, and are typically brushed aside in the early rounds. As expected, they are a little tougher to crack at home, but YB shouldn’t really have any issues after stellar showings in Europe over the last few years where they have negotiated harder ties than this one.

YB and their firepower should be too strong here against a team that concedes often. I expect a comfortable and efficient win.

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KuPS v Milsami

League leaders KuPS coasted into this round after a 0-0 draw in Georgia, sealing a 2-0 aggregate win over Dila Gori. They were able to rest some key players and come into this match without a league fixture last weekend so should be fresh. New signings Valencic, Oksanen and Jensen are eligible, the former getting a run out for KuPS academy side last week. Sharing the goalscoring burden with Tim Vayrynen will be his role in the side, hopefully, Latvian playmaker Janis Ikaunieks will return to the side after missing the draw last week.

Milsami haven’t played a league fixture since May and won their first qualifying round tie despite conceding more shots and possession in both games – something KuPS will need to bear in a mind as they will be looking to dominate from the start. KuPS have been in fine form at home, last time out a heavily rotated side beat Lahti 4-0. The only caveat will be that in the home win against Dila in QR1, the goals came from a free kick and a penalty.

Again, KuPS should be in good enough form and with enough match sharpness to take a lead into the second leg and they have the closest thing to a home banker in-between (a game against HIFK) so will be able to rotate the squad then. Repeating last year’s run to the play-off round will be foremost in the club’s minds, with the draw for the third qualifying round providing a potential big tie against Young Boys.

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SJK v Lillestrom

Lillestrøm qualified for the Europa Conference League by finishing fourth last season and with Molde winning the Norwegian Cup became the final Norwegian team eligible for this competition. It is the first time they have been in Europe for several years and they will hope to have a good run. Lillestrøm have had a great domestic season so far and sit joint top of the Eliteserien with Molde on 33 points. They have been performing much better than most people expected. Two key players for LSK this season have been goalkeeper Mads Christiansen and striker Akor Adams. Lillestrøm have a strong defence anyway, but it really helps them having such a reliable goalkeeper in between the sticks who has made several key saves. Adams has weighed in with 6 goals and 2 assists. His physical presence in the final third has really caused problems to the opposition. Geir Bakke’s side only rank mid-range with xG stats but their crucial strength is at the back where they’ve only conceded 14 goals and have an average xGA per 90 mins of just 1.29, which is one of the best of any team in the league.

SJK finished third in the Finnish Veikkausliiga last season, enabling them to qualify for this competition. However, things have not been so good for them this year and they are currently languishing as low as 9th place with only four wins in fourteen games. Their 24 goals conceded is one of the worst in their own domestic division and is a major concern. The have one of the worst xGA in the league, averaging 1.39 per 90 mins. The club, who are from the Finnish city of Seinäjoki are understandable underdogs for this tie and Lillestrøm are 1.70 favourites to win the first leg. SJK have already been in European action this season and squeezed past Estonian side Flora Tallin in the previous round 4-3 on aggregate after extra time in the second leg. Former Luton Town striker Jake Jervis scored a hat trick in that match and will likely be their primary threat.

SJK will surely be quite positive in this home match. They can’t go to Norway next week and expect to stand any chance unless they have some sort of advantage to take with them. The previous round result at home 4-2 vs Flora shows that they are the sort of side who can get sucked into a shootout. Over 2.5 looks like a decent price at 2.10 to land. SJK do not seem like a very strong defensive side and Lillestrøm have enough offensive firepower to cause them plenty of problems. Taking Lillestrøm team total goals over 1.5 could also be considered here but the overall match total over 2.5 feels like the overall best value option.

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Molde v Elfsborg

An exciting clash awaits between Molde, a big powerhouse team in Norway and Elfsborg who have done well to qualify for Europe the second season running. Molde are joint top of the Eliteserien on 33 points. They are unbeaten in ten consecutive league games and won eight of those fixtures. Molde have plenty of past pedigree in this competition, reaching the last 16 vs Grenada in the 2020/21 campaign. Erling Moe’s men will always be as competitive as they can be in Europe. They will treat both domestic and European matches with equal priority. Molde have endured a lot of injuries this season but the return of key attacking midfielder Magnus Wolff Eikrem at the weekend was a major boost. His technical mastery is one of the best in the whole of Scandinavia. He only came off the bench on Sunday but could start here. The inconsistent form of striker David Datro Fofana will be crucial. If he fires, then Molde usually perform well.

Elfsborg have been excellent in the last two seasons under the management of Jimmy Thelin. However, they are down as low as 9th in the Allsvenskan and been fairly inconsistent this year. The main problem is just a lack of clean sheets, only two in total which has really hindered them this year. Elfsborg lost 0-3 away to Hammarby at the weekend and were quite disappointing in that match. They do have some scoring power though and their 26 goals netted is the fourth best in the league. They are the sort of team who carry a strong goal threat with the whole team and do not rely on a single striker. Elfsborg are always dangerous from set pieces with the excellent Johan Larsson putting in great deliveries. 

The way that both teams play this should be an entertaining match. Molde are naturally an attacking team and have the second best xG average per 90 mins in the Eliteserien (1.93). They have not been scoring as many recently but with Wolff Eikrem now back I would expect them to start over performing their goal metrics. Elfsborg also have one of the best xG in the Allsvenskan with a very respectable 1.87 per match. Molde are favourites to win this game at odds of 1.75 which seems fair. They should logically be the better team, and most people will expect them to win this tie on aggregate. Over 2.5 goals are screaming out as the best bet though based on how the two teams operate and their usual positive approach. Sometimes in these European qualifiers teams can freeze and go into their shell but hopefully that won’t happen in this instance. 

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Pogon Szczecin v Brøndby IF

In the Conference League, Polish side Pogon Szczecin take on Brøndby IF from Denmark. The Polish team are favourites for this one, but I am predicting a tight and cagey affair.

Pogon finished third in the Polish Ekstraklasa last season, and they are going into this with plenty of confidence. At the weekend, they defeated Widzew Lodz 2-1 in the league at home, and in the previous round of the Conference League, they demolished KR Reykjavik 4-2.

Just like Pogon, Brøndby are also going into this match with a victory in the bag. However, the yellow blues struggled in the match however and had it not been for a late deflected goal, it could easily have ended with zero points instead of three.

Brøndby struggled offensively and had a hard time creating chances, something that has become a common theme for them in recent games. They are expected to enter this match with a defensive mind-frame and opt to play on the counter-attack and try to avoid defeat ahead of the return leg in Denmark.

It will be up to Pogon to create the entertainment in this match. However, both sides are expected to take cautious approaches here to avoid getting in trouble before the return leg. Brondby in particular will enter this fixture with a cautious approach, and therefore I’m going with under 2.5 goals in what I anticipate will be a cagey and ultimately very boring first leg.

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Basel v Crusaders

FC Basel took part in the inaugural edition of the UEFA Europa Conference League last season, progressing beyond the Group Stage before losing out to Marseille in a tight two-legged affair. After a disappointing playoff round defeat to CSKA Sofia in the 20/21 edition of the UEFA Europa League, and with no third competition to fall back on then, this run to the Last 16 was a welcome return to the European stage. Now with that experience under their belt, FCB return to the UECL as they meet with Northern Irish opposition for the first time since trading victories with Glentoran back in 1976.

After weeks of pre-season preparation, the reign of new manager Alex Frei began in a rather lukewarm fashion at the home of his old side, newly-promoted Winterthur FC in the league opener for both teams on Saturday. FCB fell behind very early in the contest, eventually clawing back a point after Wouter Burger’s first goal for the club since his summer move in 2021. In the end, FCB will be content to have left the Schutzenwiese with something against a spirited Winterthur side and a frenzied atmosphere.

Seven-time NIFL Premiership champions Crusaders F.C. are next on the agenda for FCB. The Hatchetmen secured passage into QR2 after a tricky tie against European newcomers FC Bruno’s Magpies. Yes, there was a possibility of “FCB vs. FCB” in this round, but Crusaders had no time for that, staging a comeback in the second leg on home soil to advance. As a result, they will make the trip to the 38k capacity St. Jakob-Park on Thursday before the return leg at the much more intimate surroundings of Seaview next week in Belfast.

Crusaders have pulled off some terrific results in the past in Europe. B36 Torshavn and Levadia Tallinn are two sides, along with FCB Magpies, that they’ve managed to eliminate over the last decade. In truth though, they’re always punching above their weight at this level and are usually soundly beaten. A 9-0 aggregate victory for Ludogorets in 2018, 6-2 for Olimpija Ljubliana, also in 2018, and a 6-1 result for English side Wolves in 2019 are just some examples of this.

Over the years Crusaders have notoriously struggled away from home in Europe and in 24 games they have only ever registered two victories. To compound that record, the Crues have conceded an average of 3.8 goals in each of those games and never managed to prevent the opposition from scoring in any of those two dozen ties. For Thursday’s game, Baxter should have a full squad to choose from apart from central defender Josh Robinson who missed both games against the Magpies with an injury.

This is a huge step up for Crusaders and while they’ll give everything, FCB are just much too strong. In my opinion, FCB will score a heavy, confidence-boosting victory and more or less put the tie to bed before their visit to the capital.

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Rapid Vienna v Lechia Gdansk

Before getting their Bundesliga campaign underway on Sunday, Rapid Vienna have European matters to attend to. The Green & Whites will be hoping for a more straightforward game than their Austrian Cup first round tie against third-tier Treibach – in which they laboured to a 1-0 win courtesy of Guido Burgstaller’s 94^th-minute winner – when they take on Polish Ekstraklasa side Lechia Gdańsk in the Conference League second qualifying round on Thursday.

While Rapid, who could be without the midfield trio of Roman Kerschbaum, Lion Schuster and Dejan Petrovic, will be making their debut European appearance of the season, their Polish opponents have already had their first taste of continental competition, having thrashed Macedonian outfit Akademija Pandev 6-2 on aggregate in the first qualifying round. Sadly, the first leg on the Baltic coast was marred by crowd trouble, with the game suspended for 40 minutes following in-fighting among the home fans.

The Austrians should be heavy favourites on paper: they are ranked 96^th in the UEFA club coefficient compared to Lechia’s lowly placement of 327th and boast home advantage in the first leg too. We, therefore, recommend backing the hosts to get a win that will stand them in good stead for the return leg in northern Poland. Whether both matches go off without any hint of crowd trouble remains to be seen.

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Istanbul Basaksehir v Maccabi Netenya

Istanbul Başakşehir will play their first official game of the season. They renewed their offensive power in preparation the new season. Mounir Chouiar from Yeni Malatyaspor and Patryk Szysz from Poland are new wingers joining the team to add an extra dimension to the attack. Algerian national Ahmed Touba from Belgium came to the defense and experienced player Lucas Biglia was added to the midfield with the former Argentinian international enjoying a fine season in the Superlig last year. The latest transfer of the club was Mesut Özil, who left Fenerbahçe, but Özil is not ready yet and will not be in the squad for this match.

Young coach Emre Belözoğlu portrays his challenging and competitive football character to his team. The aim to challenge for the Superlig title and there are many experienced and quality players in its squad. They won all three friendlies they played so far this season.

Maccabi Netanya will try to surprise by taking advantage of the quality of Patrick Twumasi, who played in Turkey before, as well as the Israeli national players. Finally, in the Israeli league cup, they defeated last year’s league champion Maccabi Haifa on penalties. One of the teams that conceded the least goals in the Israeli league, they recorded 12 clean sheets last season. On the other hand, the offensive quality is quite weak compared to Başakşehir. 

Istanbul Başakşehir has quality and experience at this level and I expect them to take a lead with them over to Israel for the second leg next week.

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Motherwell v Sligo Rovers

It’s another short but exciting trip for followers of Sligo Rovers in Europe as the Bit O’Red eye up Scottish opposition in the latest round of UEFA Europa Conference League Qualifiers having overcome Bala Town of Wales last week. 

Sligo Rovers gave themselves a good platform for progression when they went to the UK for the first-leg and left with a 2-1 win despite playing the final 10 minutes with 10 men. If anything, Sligo would have been disappointed they didn’t make more of the chances they had when it was 11 v 11 on the pitch. 

A part-time team that are out of season coming to a sold out Showgrounds looked an ideal opportunity for the Irish side to put the demons of previous European embarrassments behind them but last Thursday almost turned into one of the worst nights Sligo Rovers have ever had in European competition. 

Only for the heroics of goalkeeper Ed McGinty, who may well have played his last game for the club, Sligo Rovers would have been going out of Europe and missing out on a major payday. Discussions are underway between Sligo Rovers and Oxford over wheter McGinty can play in this European tie before making a transfer to the League One side. McGinty was absent for Sunday’s horror 2-0 home defeat against bottom side UCD but even a McGinty masterclass won’t be enough to scrape Sligo through this tie unless they can find major improvement from recent games. 

While Motherwell are also out of season at the moment, the Scottish Premiership side have been on a pre-season training camp in Austria, a reminder of the greater resources and financial clout Sligo will be going up against. Motherwell ran out 5-1 winners in a friendly against Austrian side Steyr during that tour and the Scottish side will be hoping to progress through a two-legged European tie for the sixth time in their history (They also progressed through two one-legged ties in 2020-21 in the Covid-era of UEFA competitions). 

Motherwell almost suffered European embarrassment of their own last year having easily overcome Glentoran 5-1 in round one of the Europa League Qualifiers they were drawn against another team from the Northern Irish Premier League in round two. That team was Coleraine who brought Motherwell all the way to penalties before bowing out. Motherwell’s Euro exit would be secured in the next round as Hapoel Be’er Sheva from Israel put the Scots to the sword 3-0.

Contrast Motherwell’s overall European record to that of Sligo’s and it does not majke for good reading for Sligo fans with The Bit O’Red progressing through only two of twelve European ties they’ve played (excluding Intertoto Cup).  

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BATE v Konyaspor

Both matches will be played at Konyaspor’s stadium in Turkey due to the war conditions in Belarus in this encounter. The first leg will be played behind closed doors, without spectators as BATE are considered the ‘home’ team. The Belarusian League continues, 15th week matches of the league were played. BATE are top of the league, but they have only won once in their last 5 games. They are not in tip-top form as things stand and have conceded in each of the last three games.

Konyaspor were arguably the most impressive/overperforming team in the Superlig last season. Although they are traditionally a low-budget team, they left behind big clubs and managed to finish in the top 3 which is a spectacular achievement. One of the important players of the team, centre-back Abdülkerim Durmaz left the team to join Galatasaray, but he was sufficiently replaced by Costa Rican national Francisco Calvo. They have also added Domagoj Pavicic and Bruno Paz to the midfield, also they changed up squad depth by adding local players.

Coach Ilhan Palut has had a very successful managerial career to date. He also wants to prove himself in European matches, something he has not had the opportunity to do in his short managerial career. Playing against an opponent at the mid-season may seem like a disadvantage, but they will play both games at home which certainly outweighs that disadvantage. There is no significant injuries in the squad and with home advantage (despite being away) I expect them to get a positive result in this one.

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Vitória de Guimarães v Puskas Akademia

Vitória de Guimarães ended the 2021/22 season behind closed doors, a ‘punishment’ for an incident dating back to January 2020 when Vitória fans threw flares and chairs onto the pitch during a 1-0 loss to Benfica. The game was effectively meaningless; the week prior, Gil Vicente had sealed fifth place and qualification to European competition for the first time in the club’s 98-year history. Vitória, meanwhile, were confirmed to finish in sixth place no matter what. After thrashing Gil Vicente 5-0 in front of a nonexistent audience, Vitória were forced to wait for the Taça de Portugal Final to discover their fate; Porto defeated already relegated Tondela 3-1 to complete their domestic double and send Vitória to Europe.

The following months have seen plenty of major figures depart the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Colombian striker Óscar Estupiñán, who finished as the club’s top scorer with 15 goals in 28 league matches last season, left for Hull City on a free transfer, whilst Rochinha, one of the club’s captains and the main creative outlet on the flanks following the midseason departure of Marcus Edwards to Sporting, was sold to Sporting for just €2 million. If reports are to be believed, Pepa – who left his role as Paços de Ferreira’s manager a year ago after leading them to fifth place to take over at Vitória – was only informed of Rochinha’s sale after the player abandoned the club’s preseason training and completed his transfer to Sporting.

It is yet another year where a Portuguese side finishes in the top six and is rewarded by having its assets raided by richer teams. The writing was on the wall for Pepa. Nine days before the first leg of their UEFA Europa Conference League qualifier against Puskás Akadémia, Pepa left his position as Vitória manager, whilst ex Vitória player Moreno left his role as B team coach to assume his first ever top-level head coaching role. One might look at the departures of Rochinha and Estupiñán, Vitória’s two biggest attacking weapons, and assume it will be a low-scoring affair, but I’m going to pick the exact opposite to happen, and I’ll explain why.

t’s hard to draw conclusions from preseason form, but one clean sheet in five matches is not a great sign for a team whose Achilles heel throughout the 2021/22 season was a leaky defensive record. And whilst Venezuelan center back Mikel Villanueva has joined on a free transfer following an impressive spell at Santa Clara, it remains to be seen whether incoming left back Ryoya Ogawa or new center back signing Maxwell Woledzi can make a seamless transition from playing in Japan and Denmark, respectively.

On the other hand, Vitória’s signings in attack offer a lot more promise. Jota Silva, often referred to as the ‘Portuguese Jack Grealish’ due to his physical and technical similarities, has joined on a free transfer after leading Casa Pia to their first top-flight berth in 83 years, and he’ll be looking to provide plenty of quality on the flanks. Anderson Silva, a 24-year-old Brazilian striker who played a key role in Famalicão’s promotion to the Primeira and impressive first season back in the top-flight in 2019/20, has ended his brief spell in China and returned to Portugal, joining Vitória on a free transfer. The biggest coup, undoubtedly, is André Silva. After scoring in the promotion/relegation playoffs to lead his club past Rio Ave, the Brazilian striker emerged as one of the standout attacking players outside of Portugal’s Big Three with an impressive 10 goals and 3 assists in all competitions for newly promoted Arouca. Between Jota and the two Brazilians, Vitória may very well see their efficiency in the final third take a step forward this season.

To learn a little more about Puskas Akademia I spoke to a Hungarian expert who told me all you need to know about the visitors. “Hungarian sides really struggle in Europe when they have little experience, last year being a good example for Puskas, but they’re a very good side who could give Vitória a decent game on their day. They definitely have players who can hurt them, but it depends which side turns up. They played Ferencvaros three times last season, didn’t lose, and beat them once, but then would lose to someone like Paks 6-1. They have a lot of players who are either amazing or anonymous, a super inconsistent side, but they have a few flair players who can be really good on their day.”

Vitória have a vastly superior team on paper and ample firepower to hurt a Puskás side that has won just one European game in its brief existence. Vitória will be looking to put this tie to bed ahead of next week’s trip to Felcsút whilst Moreno will be looking to assuage Vitória’s demanding fanbase with a convincing display to kick off the campaign. A backs-to-the-wall win against the Hungarian minnows may put them in the driver’s seat for qualification to the next round, but it will do little to convince supporters that their rookie manager has what it takes to command the ship. Expect Vitória to come out guns blazing, expect a determined display from a group of players eager to get into their new manager’s good graces, and expect a handful of defensive errors from a team that left plenty of neutrals and fans face-palming themselves last season after countless schoolboy mistakes at the back. Above all, expect a goalfest in Guimarães.

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