Tottenham started the season really well defensively but that has unravelled a little in the last few weeks, which is a pattern that has seen their games produce more goals. Tottenham have seen 2+ goals in each of their last five matches, only keeping one clean sheet in this period, which was against Doncaster in the Carabao Cup.

Villa’s resurgence in form has also been accompanied by goals following Unai Emery struggling to get his side to have any sort of goal threat in the early weeks of the campaign. They’ve seen 2+ goals in four of their last five matches except their 1-0 win over Bologna, which was a game that saw a combined xG of 2.69 from 29 total match shots.

These sides faced off three times last season, twice in the Premier League and once in the FA Cup. 2+ goals landed in all three meetings, with Villa winning two of these encounters, though Tottenham did win 4-1 in this fixture last season.

Both of these sides rank in the top 10 in the Premier League when it comes to corners won:

• Tottenham - 42 (4th) - 6.0 per game

• Aston Villa - 38 (7th) - 5.42 per game 

Tottenham, in particular, are interesting when it comes to corners, they took plenty under Ange Postecoglu last term but rarely utilised these avenues effectively, and were also vulnerable to conceding set pieces. That has changed under Frank but the volume of corners that the Lilywhites are able to rack up has remained the same.

Tottenham are averaging 5.33 corners per game at home in the Premier League this term, with their home matches seeing 12.67 match corners per game. Villa’s away corner average sits at 5.67, a marginal increase on their overall numbers, with their away games seeing 11.67 match corners per game. 

The meeting between these sides at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last season produced exactly 10 corners, with Tottenham winning six and Villa providing the other four.

I backed this in our bet builder just before the international break in Tottenham v Leeds, which was a game where Vicario was forced into making three saves.

That tally maintained a strong save rate for Vicario so far this season who has had to bail Tottenham out at times and has been a big component in the Lilywhites’ improved defensive structure under Thomas Frank. 

He’s made 24 saves across his seven matches this season (3.43 per 90) and has maintained an excellent save percentage of 82.8% across these matches.

Villa have recovered from their slow start to the season to win their last four matches across all competitions, though just one of these came away from home. 

They drew five saves from Dubravka last time out and can test Vicario here with the newfound confidence they’ve developed following their resurgent recent run.

Bogarde has put in some impressive performances in midfield for Aston Villa so far this season, with his best coming just before the international break in Villa’s 3-1 win over Burnley at Villa Park.

Bogarde was hauled down three times in that game and committed one foul himself, taking his tally for the season to six fouls committed across just 284 minutes of Premier League football this term (1.90 per 90).

His other most recent near 90 saw him commit two fouls in Villa’s win over Fulham, which further highlights his ability to commit fouls. He is quite a versatile player and can occupy a number of positions. He’s very comfortable on the ball, but will have a defensive role as well here.

Thomas Frank played Xavi Simons through the middle for the first time against Leeds just before the international break. Up until then, Simons has been shifted out to the wing, but him operating in a central role here really aids our selection.

Simons has won four fouls so far this season (1.43 per 90) and averaged 2.34 fouls won per 90 in the Bundesliga last term. 

Tel scored his first goal of the season, and his fourth in total for Tottenham since joining, against Leeds in the Lilywhites’ 2-1 victory over Leeds at Elland Road. It was a fabulous finish by the 20-year-old who fired past Karl Darlow at his near post for the opener, and I think he’s still got plenty to offer at this level.

I see Tel as a number nine; he was played out on the left by Ange Postecoglu when he initially joined from Bayern Munich, but his traits suit the striker role more. The most impressive aspect of Tel’s game is his ball-striking ability; he can strike the ball very cleanly and is a real threat whenever he gets near the 18-yard box.

Tel was a player in high demand when he wanted to leave Bayern Munich in the summer, and while he still needs to develop certain aspects of his game, that goal against Leeds will give him a lot of confidence. 

It should also be noted that Tel won’t get an opportunity like this again; both Solanke and Kolo Muani are set to miss this game, so Tel can stake a claim for the striking role under Frank in this small window.

Super Sub also offers solid cover with this selection, with Richarlison available to come off the bench if Tel can’t quite find his shooting boots. Richarlison has netted three goals across his five Premier League starts this term.

Digne is one of the most consistent players in this Villa side. He’s a solid operator and is important for the width he is able to provide Villa with Unai Emery often wanting his wide attacking players to come in quite narrow.

We’re focusing on the defensive side of his game here with Digne lining up against Mohammed Kudus. The five fouls that Digne has committed in the Premier League so far this term (0.92 per 90) isn’t a metric that jumps off the page, but that assists us in getting a bit of value in this selection.

Kudus should force a rise in these numbers. He’s been Tottenham’s most influential player so far this season with five goal contributions across his seven appearances for the Lilywhites, winning seven fouls in the process (1.02 per 90). Kudus contested 19 duels in Tottenham’s 2-1 win over Leeds last time out, being hauled down on one occasion.

Lucas Digne may also have to contend with Pedro Porro who likes to progress up that side of the pitch as well (0.99 fouls won per 90). Kudus averaged 2.21 fouls won per 90 for West Ham last campaign in a poor year overall for the winger, but this shows how good he is when it comes to winning fouls as it remains a consistent part of his game even when he is off form.

Bogarde was fouled three times in Aston Villa’s 3-1 win over Burnley just before the international break. Villa drew 15 fouls from the Clarets in that game which isn’t a surprise seeing as Villa won more fouls than any other side in the Premier League last season (13.8 per game).

Bogarde has already won nine fouls across his 284 minutes of Premier League football this term (2.85 per 90) and is operating in a part of the pitch where he’ll be in with a decent chance of being hauled down on a few more occasions.

Tottenham’s midfield is quite steely at the moment as Thomas Frank attempts to account for the lack of creativity in the side with both James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski long-term absentees.

This has led to the likes of Bentancur and Palhinha routinely starting most matches with the pair very physical in the middle of the park - combined, they’re averaging 1.32 fouls committed per 90 in the Premier League this term which is a number I can see rising here with Bogarde’s and Villa’s ability to win fouls.