Aston Villa v Tottenham

Aston Villa welcome a Tottenham side to Villa Park who saw their chances of a trophy evaporate again in crushing circumstances with a 4-0 defeat at Anfield knocking them out of the EFL Cup. Aston Villa aren’t in the greatest form themselves with Unai Emery’s side picking up just 1 win from their last 5 games across all competitions. 

With both sides performing below their expected level in the Premier League, this cup tie offers an opportunity to add some energy to their seasons. Aston Villa’s January signings are all in contention to make their debuts, including Marcus Rashford who has joined on loan from Manchester United until the end of the season.

⭐ Aston Villa v Tottenham Best Bet

This market has been overpriced for a few weeks now, Watkins has a solid fouls record which has seen him commit at least 1 foul in 4 of his last 5 appearances in all competitions.

Watkins is averaging 1.25 fouls committed per 90 across his 24 Premier League appearances this season, this record has come about as a result of Watkins being involved in fiery duels with the opposition centre back. This is further evidenced by his solid fouls won record this campaign (1.36 per 90), a market that is priced around 1.3 suggesting that this price for Watkins to commit at least 1 foul is quite generous. He can struggle with the physical aspect of the battles with the majority of his joy coming from his mobility and speed to get in behind the opposition's backline. 

Watkins committed 2 fouls in Aston Villa’s 4-1 defeat against Tottenham in the Premier League earlier in the season, he can post similar numbers here and should have a tough task against Kevin Danso who was fouled once in Tottenham’s 4-0 defeat to Liverpool last time out on his debut, and averaged 0.92 fouls won per 90 across his 12 Ligue 1 appearances this campaign.

🟢 Aston Villa v Tottenham #WhatOddsPaddy Tip

It’s undeniable that the strength of both of these sides is in their forward lines. Tottenham are averaging 5.4 shots per game in the Premier League whilst Aston Villa are averaging 4.1 shots on target per game in the Premier League. Aston Villa’s total rises when looking at their games at Villa Park to 4.75 shots on target per game. 

Neither of these backlines can be trusted to keep out the attacking talent on show, Aston Villa should have the urgency as the home side and usually start quickly at home which should see the game open up after the early nerves are settled. We saw this quick start in Aston Villa’s game against Celtic in the Champions League where they took a 2-goal lead inside just 10 minutes. 

Tottenham have to get something here just to keep some energy in their season, the Europa League is still a possible avenue to success but having some form of domestic goal is important to keep morale up in the side. Tottenham managed 6 shots on target in their 4-1 win over Aston Villa in the Premier League earlier in the season. Villa only managed 1 effort on target in that game but are unlikely to be as blunt here, they still managed 12 shots in the game so they will carry an attacking threat which should translate to more shots on target here.

👕 Aston Villa v Tottenham Predicted XI

🔍 Aston Villa v Tottenham Players to Watch

🟣 John McGinn

John McGinn has won 41 fouls across his 20 Premier League appearances this season (2.70 per 90). He was involved in a real battle in the league meeting between these sides in which both teams committed 14 fouls each and there was a real ferocity in some of the challenges going in. McGinn was fouled 2 times in that encounter and committed 2 fouls himself, contesting 13 duels in total. He’ll be up against Rodrigo Bentancur who committed 3 fouls in that league meeting and is averaging 1.96 fouls committed per 90 across his 14 Premier League appearances this campaign.

🟣 Morgan Rogers

The majority of Morgan Rogers’ success has come at Villa Park this season, he scored a hat-trick in his most recent home appearance in the Champions League against Celtic. He’s registered 10 goal contributions across his 23 Premier League appearances this season (6 goals, 4 assists), including getting the only goal in Aston Villa’s 4-1 defeat to Tottenham in the Premier League earlier in the season. Aston Villa are a far better team on home turf, particularly when it comes to scoring goals - they’ve scored 6 more goals at Villa Park compared to on the road in the Premier League this season (20-14).

⚪ Mathys Tel

Tottenham’s squad is still very thin due to injuries, these absences are expected to clear in the coming weeks but Richarlison had to be substituted at half time in Tottenham’s EFL Cup defeat to Liverpool last time out, creating another headache for Ange Postecoglou who is already without main striker Dominic Solanke.

This is where Mathys Tel could be in line to make his first start for Tottenham since joining from Bayern Munich on loan. He averaged 1.07 shots on target per 90 across his 8 appearances in the Bundesliga this season, this is a small sample size but promising when also considering Tottenham’s shot on target in the Premier League this season - only 4 teams are averaging more shots on target per game than the 5.4 Tottenham are managing so there should be opportunities for the new acquisition to find the target, especially if he is played through the middle.

📂 Aston Villa v Tottenham Cheat Sheet

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💻 Aston Villa v Tottenham Form and Tactics

• Aston Villa’s struggles at times this season have been down to fatigue rather than a lack of effort or a poor tactical approach. Unai Emery’s side have struggled to manage the increased fixture load that being in the Champions League presents, especially with the new format which jammed extra games into the end of January. Aston Villa’s January transfer business highlighted this shortfall, the squad was looking light with the injuries they’ve also suffered this season so the signings of Donyell Malen, Marcus Rashford, Marco Asensio and Axel Disasi add real depth to the side which will help them to challenge on a few fronts. 

• It’s unclear as to whether Unai Emery will throw his new toys straight into the starting lineup but Disasi could be the most ready to come in with Villa very light at the back.
  
• Away from their new signings, expect Villa to line up in a 4-2-3-1 shape with the attackers just behind Ollie Watkins given licence to rotate and drop into pockets. Their roles do change based on the opposition, for example, we saw the 3 play very narrow in Aston Villa’s 2-2 draw with Arsenal a few weeks ago but Emery tends to give them the freedom to be a lot more expansive at home. Aston Villa have only lost 1 of their 12 Premier League games at Villa Park this season. 

• Analysing Tottenham’s performances is becoming a real challenge, Postecoglou looked out of ideas on the touchline in their EFL Cup semi-final exit to Liverpool, which they lost 4-0, and the underlying numbers from that encounter make for grim reading from a Tottenham point of view. Their midfield in particular lacked urgency and couldn’t get a foothold in the game, something that Aston Villa will take advantage of if they put in that same level of performance here. Injuries have to be given some consideration with Tottenham still missing a large chunk of their starting backline, but the attitude and body language of some of the Tottenham players, worryingly some of the more senior players, is indicative of a side that is losing hope in the project. 

• Tottenham ran out 4-1 winners in the Premier League meeting between these sides in North London, Unai Emery’s side were well below par despite taking the lead in the game. 1 thing that is worth noting from that initial encounter is how feisty it was, both sides committed 14 fouls each and a red card could have easily been produced for some of the challenges on show, so expect some needle in this FA Cup tie.

🏁 Aston Villa v Tottenham Ref Watch

• Referee: Anthony Taylor
• There were 28 fouls committed in the league meeting between these sides, 14 by each team. This only translated into 2 yellow cards, both for Tottenham.

📺 How to Watch Aston Villa v Tottenham in the FA Cup

📅 When is Aston Villa v Tottenham? / Sunday, 9 February 2025, 17:35
🏟 Where is Aston Villa v Tottenham? / Villa Park (Birmingham)
📺 What TV Channel is Aston Villa v Tottenham on? / BBC One
🟨 …And who is the referee for Aston Villa v Tottenham / Anthony Taylor 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.