Looking at Nunes’ foul count suggests that he’s not massively prolific when it comes to giving away free-kicks, with 0.54 per 90 in the Premier League this season, but the right-back steadily gives away one or two fouls each game. He’s committed at least one foul in seven of his last 11 appearances for City, and has been booked in three of his last five.

The real motivation behind this bet is that he will be going head-to-head with Xavi Simons, who has won at least two free kicks in five of his last six Premier League matches and in nine of his last 10 overall. The exception came against Liverpool, when he played only 32 minutes. Simons has also been fouled at least once in 10 of his 12 Premier League starts.

With Spurs missing important attacking players in Richarlison, James Maddison and Mohammed Kudus, Simons is likely to see a huge amount of the ball. He’s had more than 50 passes received in each of the last two games, increasing the chances of him drawing a foul.

Across all competitions this season, only Richarlison has had more shots for Tottenham than Xavi Simons’ 42. He is averaging 2.08 per 90 minutes and the evidence points to him being on a steady upward trajectory in this stat. Simons has had 15 shots across his last five matches for Spurs, having at least two in each game. It's also worth noting that he has hit the target in four of the last five, which is on offer at 1.90.

City are looking fragile defensively at the moment, giving up at least 10 shots in each of their past three games against Premier League opponents, compared to a season average of 9.35 per game. Wolves – 2nd lowest shooters in the league this season – managed 11 last week. Simons is Spurs’ main attacking outlet and will carry the threat here.

Spurs do love to get stuck in. They’re set up to be combative, especially in the middle of the park, and they’ve added to that with the signing of Connor Gallagher, who is a persistent fouler and a card magnet. Spurs have averaged 2.70 team cards per game this season, which rises to a huge 3.27 on home soil, where they’ve struggled to deal with the pressure of their own fans throughout this season.

Overall, Spurs have landed this selection in 82% of their matches this season, and that rises to 91% when playing at home. City aren’t the best in the league at drawing fouls, particularly away, where opponents have averaged 1.36 cards. However, Spurs did pick up four in their victory at the Etihad earlier this season, in fact, cards have been common in this fixture for a long time, especially for Spurs. They have received at least two cards in the last 16 head-to-head meetings.

Guardiola made a clear move at the start of the season to add another depth to his Man City team, as he brought in players who were more adept at carrying the ball, and dominating 1v1 situations, and Semenyo’s addition looks a perfect fit to continue this. He’s started well under Pep, picking up three goals and an assist across his four appearances in all competitions so far.

He’s also hit the target in each match so far, excluding the disappointing defeat to Man United, where City were admittedly outclassed. He had three shots, with two on target last time out against Wolves, and throughout the Premier League season he has been so consistent.

He was averaging 1.35 SoT per 90 at Bournemouth, and his 27 shots on target this campaign for them remains the highest in their squad by 12. He’s played 22 times in the Premier League this season, all being 90 minutes or just shy of that. He has hit the target at least once in 18 of them. A nice added bonus is that he’s landed this selection twice already against Spurs this season, and has already scored against them.

Rodri has now been fully reintegrated into the Manchester City side after a lengthy lay-off with injury, and I think he looks slightly more vulnerable than he did before that absence. Rodri was previously able to cover massive amounts of ground all on his own, and while he still is one of the best holding midfielders in the world, I’m not sure that he can be as effective in that role now.

Manchester City’s defeat to Manchester United a few weeks ago was a good example of the weakness in his game since that injury. He committed one foul and was shown a card in that clash, with Michael Carrick targeting the fact that City leave Rodri on his own in that space, with the Spaniard then unable to deal with the intense pressure of Bryan Mbeumo and Bruno Fernandes, who combined to open City up on many occasions.

I think Thomas Frank could try something similar here, Rodri has committed 2+ fouls in each of his last two appearances for Manchester City - including picking up a red card in the Champions League as City lost to Bodo/Glimt. Rodri’s main opponent here is likely to be Xavi Simons, who has won 24 fouls across his 12 Premier League appearances this season (1.95 per 90).

Marc Guehi has already impressed in his early few matches for Manchester City and will have an important role here against Dominic Solanke. The former Bournemouth forward is very intense, and occasionally careless, with his press, and I think his duel with Guehi will be one to keep an eye on here.

Guehi hasn’t won a foul for Manchester City yet across his early appearances for the club, but this is a trait of Guehi’s that should become more apparent the more he plays for Guardiola’s side. Guehi has won 18 fouls across his 21 Premier League appearances this season (0.86 per 90). It was a consistent part of his game at Palace due to how often he was allowed to step into more advanced areas.

We know that Guardiola likes his centre backs to do this, and has been missing someone that can do it effectively since losing John Stones to injury. Solanke will be urged to be a physical focal point for Tottenham by Thomas Frank, and I can see him overstepping the mark in this role. Solanke committed 36 fouls across his 25 starts in the Premier League last season (1.47 per 90), suggesting that he can force a slight rise in Guehi’s fouls won numbers in this clash.

Gallagher is a very intense player and his energy can sometimes be to his disadvantage, with the Tottenham midfielder always appearing to be busy, but not very refined with the challenges he makes. We’ve already seen this side of him at Tottenham, with Gallagher committing two fouls on debut against West Ham.

He was very lucky to avoid a booking in that clash, and I don’t think he’ll get away with the same recklessness here. Gallagher is no stranger to a caution; he picked up two across just four starts in La Liga prior to joining Tottenham, and picked up seven yellow cards as well as a red card across 37 starts when he was last in the Premier League with Chelsea.

There are a few players that Gallagher could haul down here to collect his caution, with his main opponent likely to be Phil Foden. Foden has won 25 fouls across his 19 appearances in the Premier League this season (1.37 per 90), and will be aware of how erratic Gallagher can be - potentially allowing Foden to rope the former Chelsea midfielder into a few reckless challenges.