Curzon Ashton v Brackley Town (National League North)

Things have gone horribly, horribly wrong for Curzon Ashton of late.  

They have won one and drawn one of their last eight, losing against AFC Telford United, Gloucester City, Farsley Celtic then Gateshead, Kidderminster Harriers and Spennymoor Town. Previously, their form against the top sides made them awkward opposition but they have conceded 12 goals in their last three matches without reply. Recent results mean The Nash come into Tuesday night having lost each of their last three at home and scored more than one goal in just two of their last 12 matches.  

Brackley Town beat league leaders Gateshead 1-0 on Saturday to move level on points with the North East side and this is their game in hand, giving them an opportunity to pull clear at the top. The Saints’ exceptional defensive record has been key to their performance this season – they have conceded just seven goals away from home against teams not in the top three and three of those came in their derby defeat against Kettering Town while hit by injury and illness. They have won three of their last five on the road.  

Under 2.5 goals may be a selection here given Brackley’s ability to keep clean sheets and 65% of their away matches finishing with two goals or less scored, including four of their last five. However, they also need to win and come into this one having won 14 of their last 19. I’m backing them to pick up all three points. 

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Farsley Celtic v Guiseley (National League North)

It is looking like two teams from four are going to be relegated from National League North this season.  

In 19^th are AFC Telford United, who have 33 points from 36 matches. In 20^th are Blyth Spartans, who have 31 points from 35 matches. In 21^st are Tuesday’s hosts Farsley Celtic, who have 29 points from 34 matches. In 22^nd, bottom, are Tuesday’s visitors Guiseley, who have 27 points from 33 matches. Victory for Farsley Celtic would take them outside of the relegation places with a game in hand on Telford. Victory for Guiseley would see them overtake Farsley and cut the gap to survival to one point with at least a game in hand on the sides around them. Basically, this is a game of huge, huge importance.  

Given the importance of the game, I’m expecting this to be a tight, nervy affair with few goals.  

Farsley Celtic have seen two or less goals scored in four of their last seven matches, including four of five played against sides in the bottom half of the table. Guiseley, meanwhile, have scored in only one of their last nine matches and each of their last four have finished with two goals or less being scored. They have not scored more than once in an away match all season.  

Then there is the tight nature of games between sides in the bottom four. In nine matches played, only one has seen more than two goals scored and both teams have scored in just three of those matches.

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Hampton and Richmond Borough v Tonbridge Angels (National League South)

Hampton and Richmond Borough and Tonbridge Angels picked up huge victories at the weekend to pull away from the foot of the table and the sole relegation place.  

Gary McCann’s Beavers picked up their result away at Braintree Town, a 1-0 victory against a side that had lost just three of their previous 15 matches. It means they are now ten points clear of the sole relegation spot with eight games to play and, crucially, eight teams below them in the table. Tonbridge Angels, meanwhile, beat Welling United 1-0, the side currently bottom of the league table. They are now six points clear of Saturday’s opposition with a game in hand a much, much better goal difference. 

Despite both sides winning at the weekend, I’m backing the hosts here. McCann’s side have scored at least two goals in their five home matches against sides below them in the table, winning four, and have won eight of 13 matches against the same opposition overall, including six of eight against sides in the bottom five. The Angels have only won three matches against bottom half sides – all coming against Billericay Town and Welling United. They have lost four of six matches against bottom half sides away from home and have managed to score two or more goals in two of their 12 matches against sides 13^th or lower – both in home matches. 

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