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Valencia v Villarreal
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Kick Off: Saturday 31st August at 20:30
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Competition: La Liga
The Derby of the Community takes place on Saturday night, as the two most successful clubs in Valencia will look to secure bragging rights. Villarreal have had better fortunes over the last five years, finishing above Valencia in every season since 2021.
That trend looks set to persist, as Villarreal remain unbeaten in three league games so far, while Valencia are languishing in the relegation zone, yet to pick up a point. It’s still early days, and a positive result for Valencia here in front of a home support is a must.
Valencia v Villarreal Best Bets
➡️ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80 with Paddy Power
➡️ Duro to score anytime @ 3.10 with Paddy Power
Over 2.5 match goals landed in 25 of 38 games for Villarreal in the previous campaign – the joint-highest amount of any La Liga team. They are extremely progressive in their approach, making for end-to-end games. Last time out, they played out a seven-goal thriller with Celta Vigo, so that approach has persisted into the new season – over 2.5 Goals at 1.80 looks a great selection.
Villarreal have seen 14 goals in their three games so far, an average of 4.7 goals per game and last year recorded a league over in this market, witnessing over 2.5 match goals in 66% of Villarreal games last season.
Expecting a high-scoring contest, Hugo Duro is the man to watch for Valencia. Following the departure of Roman Yaremchuk, Andre Almeida partnered Duro up front. Almedia has typically played a bit deeper, as a facilitator, to allow Duro to pick up dangerous positions in the box. Valencia managed just six shots in total against Barcelona, with Duro accounting for four of them. He managed to get on the scoresheet, but also missed two big chances. Duro makes up a big part of Valencia’s attacking output, so should thrive against a Villarreal defence who have been leaky. Duro to Score Anytime at 3.10 looks great value.
📂 Valencia v Villarreal Cheat Sheet
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📊 Valencia Form and Stats
Valencia has endured a tough start to the league, with three consecutive defeats to highlight their defensive vulnerabilities. They have conceded six goals in their opening three games, raising concerns about their ability to keep opponents at bay.
Barcelona had little trouble breaking through Valencia’s defence, creating 3.22 xG from 18 shots. In their next match against Celta Vigo, Valencia were more unfortunate. Despite conceding three goals, excluding a penalty, Celta only managed six shots with an xG of just 0.53.Most recently, Valencia lost 1-0 at the San Mames Stadium to Athletic Club, after managing just two shots in total.
Last season, Valencia adopted a highly pragmatic approach, with an average of just 2.24 goals per game. However, this season has seen a shift in their strategy, as Valencia seem more aggressive and intent on scoring.
📊 Villarreal Form and Stats
In contrast, Villarreal has enjoyed an ideal start to the league season, showcasing both resilience and attacking prowess. They kicked off their campaign with a hard-fought draw against Atletico Madrid, a team known for their defensive solidity. Building on that strong performance, Villarreal then secured an impressive away victory against Sevilla, thanks to a last-gasp winner from new signing Ayoze Perez. .
Their most recent outing saw them triumph at home against Celta Vigo, in what turned out to be another high-scoring encounter. In total, there were 44 shots in the game, with 14 big chances and a total of 6.41 xG created in total. Across their three matches so far, Villarreal’s games have featured a remarkable total of 14 goals, averaging 4.7 goals per game. This explosive start to the season underscores their attacking intent and suggests that Villarreal is poised to be one of the most entertaining teams to watch this year.
⚔️ Valencia v Villarreal Head-to-Head
Last time these sides met, Villarreal ran out 1-0 winners at the La Ceramica Stadium. Despite being a low-scoring affair, chances were available at either end, as Villarreal fashioned 13 shooting chances, amounting to 2.04 xGF. In return, they also conceded 1.13 xGA from 14 shots, with goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen making seven saves. That earned the Danish goalkeeper a man of the match award, although he has since made the move to Chelsea.
Valencia fared much better at home, emerging with a 3-1 victory at the Mestalla Stadium. Roman Yaremchuk scored within five minutes, before Pepelu netted a brace from the penalty spot. Gerard Moreno pulled a goal back for Villarreal with 15 minutes to go, although it proved to only be a consolation. Jorgensen was once again kept busy with five saves, as Valencia accumulated 2.8 xGF from 11 shots.
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* We recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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