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West Brom v Stoke Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

West Brom v Stoke Bet Builder Stats & Predictions

Saturday 16 December, 20233 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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West Brom v Stoke

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Kick Off: Sunday 17th December at 12:00
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Competition: Championship
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Football

The Championship concludes with West Brom v Stoke this weekend, but that's far from everything available here on ABC. Our football coverage this week includes EFL betting predictions and EFL accumulator tips. We also have plenty of non-EFL content, with a huge range of football tips and expert betting predictions to help you craft yourself a winner this weekend.

Before you place your bet though, make sure to browse our carefully curated selection of free bets and all of the best bookmaker offers we have collected here on the site to make your money work for you.

One would be forgiven for thinking that the Coates family need to exorcise the Bet365 Stadium at this stage. Since their relegation from the Premier League in 2018 the Potters have been remarkably consistent in their poor finishes - 16th, 15th, 14th, 14th, 16th - despite enjoying the use of Premier League parachute payments and also a strong backing from the owners.

Alex Neil is the latest casualty from the malaise. Despite a brief dalliance with what looked like a genuinely good side at the back end of the last campaign, the Neil tenure perfectly encapsulated the issues around the club, it was uninspiring. It is difficult to know where the club goes from here, they have tried the up-and-coming EFL boss in Nathan Jones, the international success of Michael O’Neill, and the tried-and-tested Alex Neil. Perhaps they will now follow the trend of young, hyped coaches, or a foreign coach.

West Brom are almost the exact opposite of their opponents. Their total malaise is off-the-field with the ownership, but, on the field Carlos Corberan has the team functioning like a well oiled machine.

The organisation of the players for the Baggies is second-to-none in this league. The results speak for themselves, under his tenure Corberan has won 22 in 47 and his 1.62 PPG rate is good enough to see them as genuine play-off contenders.

Even though we don’t know exactly how Paul Gallagher will approach the game as interim head coach at Stoke, there are still plenty of angles to study for a potential bet builder in the data ahead of this game. 

West Brom v Stoke Cheat Sheet

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This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

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You can find West Brom v Stoke match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match stats: West Brom’s defensive skill is apparent in the data

West Brom are an interesting case study for those with a leaning towards performance data. The way that Corberan is coaching this side is unlike the other teams at the top of the Championship. The Baggies are comfortable eschewing possession, they are only 12th in that metric with 50.8% average, and their attacking metrics are actually fairly poor for a play-off chasing side. West Brom are 14th for xG, 20th for shots on target, and 13th for big chances created. Ordinarily that might lead people to suggest that their fifth position in the league is an overperformance and due for a fall. However, it doesn't feel that way with West Brom. Their defensive organisation and skill means that they are able to play the game at a neutral state and then if and when get go ahead, they are able to shut down the opposition pretty effectively. A great case study of this was at home to Ipswich, they restricted the league's most effective attacking unit to a measly 0.1 xG. On the other hand, Stoke's data pretty much bears out their issues. 20th for goals, 13th for xG, 21st for shots on target, and 14th for big chances created. This is a team that has struggled to impose itself on the opposition. There was a lot of recruitment in forwards area of the Stoke squad. Ryan Mmaee, Andre Vidigal, Mehdi Leris, Joon-ho Bae, Nikola Jojic, Daniel Johnson, Wesley Moraes, Sead Haksabanovic, and Chiquinho were all been brought in during the summer. With this degree of change it is perhaps not surprising that they haven't yet achieved a sense of cohesion.

Predictions:

🏆 West Brom to win @ 1.73 🏆 West Brom to win to nil @ 2.53
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🎯 Shooting stats: Shots could be low, but wide forwards ready to shine

As discussed above, these teams are not the most proficient attacking teams in the league. This makes both centre forwards not particularly appealing at the prices. Both Brandon Thomas-Asante and Ryan Mmaee appear to be taking the most minutes in that central role for the two teams, but almost by default rather than by forcing their own cases. The better value may be looking wide, and with players that the bookmakers don't quite have a total hold of at the moment. Jeremy Sarmiento is on loan at West Brom from Brighton and hasn't started many matches. However, based on the minutes he has played so far, he is a good shot threat. If he is given the nod here he will probably play from the left and from there he is able to move inside and shoot. It is perhaps an indictment of the recruitment that was outlined above, but Junior Tchamadeu has been deployed as a wide forward recently, despite playing his entire career at right back so far. However, if this tactic is to persist, at least in the short term, there may be an advantage to be gained in backing the former Colchester man in the shots markets.

Predictions:

🚀 Jeremy Sarmiento to have 2+ shots @ 1.40 🚀 Jeremy Sarmiento to have 3+ shots @ 2.30 🚀 Junior Tchamadeu to have 2+ shots @ 2.30

🚩 Corners stats: West Brom not dominant in home corner data

Neither team has made a massive impact in the corners markets so far this season. The way that West Brom play means that they have rarely peppered the opposition goal to produce a huge number of corners. Indeed, the Baggies average only 5.3 corners per home match, and concede 5.1, so there isn’t a massive home advantage to speak of there. The ratio is more akin to a bottom half struggler than a team challenging for the play-offs. Stoke do tend to concede a fair number of corners away from home though, averaging seven a game so far this season. They find it a bit easier to prevent conceding them against West Brom, but that concession rate away from home is the fourth-worst in the division.

Predictions:

🚩 Draw corner match bet @ 8.00 🚩 Over 4.5 Stoke corners @ 2.20

🟨 Cards stats: Stoke top the Championship for yellow cards

Stoke City lead the Championship in one thing, collecting yellow cards. It is their midfield in particular that has been a battleground. Ben Pearson is the quickest player in the league to a two-game ban for 10 yellow cards. Josh Laurent, Wouter Burger, and Daniel Johnson are all on five as well, quite an achievement. Possibly the most impressive stat is that Jordan Thompson has more yellow cards than 90-minute appearances, he is somehow therefore averaging over a yellow card per 90. Conor Townsend is perhaps the West Brom player to watch from a card perspective. Townsend has committed 12 fouls this season without being cautioned. By contrast, Jayson Molumby has four cards from his 12 fouls, Cedric Kipre has three cards from 13 fouls, and Matt Phillips has three cards from 11 fouls.

Predictions:

🟨 Stoke to receive the most cards @ 1.80 🟨 Wouter Burger to be shown a card @ 4.20 🟨 Conor Townsend to be shown a card @ 5.50

* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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