West Brom are an interesting case study for those with a leaning towards performance data.

The way that Corberan is coaching this side is unlike the other teams at the top of the Championship. The Baggies are comfortable eschewing possession, they are only 12th in that metric with 50.8% average, and their attacking metrics are actually fairly poor for a play-off chasing side.

West Brom are 14th for xG, 20th for shots on target, and 13th for big chances created. Ordinarily that might lead people to suggest that their fifth position in the league is an overperformance and due for a fall.

However, it doesn’t feel that way with West Brom. Their defensive organisation and skill means that they are able to play the game at a neutral state and then if and when get go ahead, they are able to shut down the opposition pretty effectively. A great case study of this was at home to Ipswich, they restricted the league’s most effective attacking unit to a measly 0.1 xG.

On the other hand, Stoke’s data pretty much bears out their issues. 20th for goals, 13th for xG, 21st for shots on target, and 14th for big chances created. This is a team that has struggled to impose itself on the opposition.

There was a lot of recruitment in forwards area of the Stoke squad. Ryan Mmaee, Andre Vidigal, Mehdi Leris, Joon-ho Bae, Nikola Jojic, Daniel Johnson, Wesley Moraes, Sead Haksabanovic, and Chiquinho were all been brought in during the summer. With this degree of change it is perhaps not surprising that they haven’t yet achieved a sense of cohesion.

Predictions:

🏆 West Brom to win @ 1.73

🏆 West Brom to win to nil @ 2.53

As discussed above, these teams are not the most proficient attacking teams in the league.

This makes both centre forwards not particularly appealing at the prices. Both Brandon Thomas-Asante and Ryan Mmaee appear to be taking the most minutes in that central role for the two teams, but almost by default rather than by forcing their own cases.

The better value may be looking wide, and with players that the bookmakers don’t quite have a total hold of at the moment.

Jeremy Sarmiento is on loan at West Brom from Brighton and hasn’t started many matches. However, based on the minutes he has played so far, he is a good shot threat. If he is given the nod here he will probably play from the left and from there he is able to move inside and shoot.

It is perhaps an indictment of the recruitment that was outlined above, but Junior Tchamadeu has been deployed as a wide forward recently, despite playing his entire career at right back so far.

However, if this tactic is to persist, at least in the short term, there may be an advantage to be gained in backing the former Colchester man in the shots markets.

Predictions:

🚀 Jeremy Sarmiento to have 2+ shots @ 1.40

🚀 Jeremy Sarmiento to have 3+ shots @ 2.30

🚀 Junior Tchamadeu to have 2+ shots @ 2.30

Neither team has made a massive impact in the corners markets so far this season.

The way that West Brom play means that they have rarely peppered the opposition goal to produce a huge number of corners. Indeed, the Baggies average only 5.3 corners per home match, and concede 5.1, so there isn’t a massive home advantage to speak of there. The ratio is more akin to a bottom half struggler than a team challenging for the play-offs.

Stoke do tend to concede a fair number of corners away from home though, averaging seven a game so far this season. They find it a bit easier to prevent conceding them against West Brom, but that concession rate away from home is the fourth-worst in the division.

Predictions:

🚩 Draw corner match bet @ 8.00

🚩 Over 4.5 Stoke corners @ 2.20